| Aaron Rodgers GB Green Bay Packers |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 1 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 362 | 548 | 4545 | 32 | 13 | 60 | 294 | 4 | 216 |
|  |
| Coming off an impressive Super Bowl campaign, Rodgers is arguably the league's top quarterback for both fantasy and real-life purposes. He isn't granted as many pass attempts - his 475 in 15 games ranked 14th - as players like Drew Brees and Peyton Manning, but he closes that gap with efficiency (8.26 YPA, 2nd) and his ability to move the ball on the ground. Rodgers can be expected to hover around 300 yards and four touchdowns as a runner, while Brees and Manning aren't even guaranteed to post positive yardage in that regard. Rodgers might need to be a bit more cautious as a runner in 2011 after suffering two concussions last year, but that he's only missed one game in three years probably indicates last year's concussions were bad luck more than anything in Rodgers' control. Moreover, Rodgers has gotten better in each of the last two seasons, and he improved as last season progressed, totaling 1,911 yards, 16 touchdowns and two interceptions through the air while completing 71.4 percent of his passes and averaging 9.3 yards per pass attempt over the final seven games. While Rodgers had a deep wide receiver corps last season, he had to do without star tight end Jermichael Finley for most of the year. If Finley, who's expected back in time for training camp, can stay healthy, we might see Rodgers establish a new ceiling. |
|
| Drew Brees NO New Orleans Saints |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 2 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 416 | 614 | 4806 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 210 |
|  |
| It might not seem fair to call a 4,620-yard, 33-touchdown season a down year, but Brees' 22 interceptions and average of just 7.0 yards per pass attempt are well below par for him. Brees has never thrown more than 18 interceptions before last year, and two of the three seasons prior to last saw him post averages of 8.0 yards or more per pass. In addition, there's little doubt the MCL sprain Brees played through in 2010 hurt his numbers. If those points alone don't give reason to expect improvement from Brees in 2011, consider the effect Mark Ingram's arrival might have. The Saints finished the regular season with a rushing average of just 4.0 yards per carry, and the team's total of nine rushing touchdowns was tied for fourth-lowest in the league. Ingram gives the team its most talented runner since Deuce McAllister, and putting him in the place of players like Julius Jones, Ladell Betts and Reggie Bush figures to provide an instant and considerable improvement to the Saints offense. With improved health, a revived running game and history on his side, Brees looks fully prepared for another great season. |
|
| Tony Romo DAL Dallas Cowboys |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 3 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 367 | 558 | 4522 | 32 | 16 | 28 | 106 | 1 | 198 |
|  |
| Coming off a season in which he missed nearly 11 games with a broken collarbone, Romo could be a decent bargain in fantasy drafts this year. He's a bit of an injury worry after missing most of last year and three games in 2008, but Romo still has high upside due to being an efficient passer in a talented and pass-happy offense. He has two big-time receiving talents to throw to in Miles Austin and Dez Bryant, while Jason Witten remains one of the league's elite tight ends. The ninth overall selection of offensive tackle Tyron Smith, in theory, should provide Romo with better pass protection, and third-round running back pick DeMarco Murray provides a big-play threat with rare pass-catching abilities in the backfield. Romo has hovered around 8.0 yards per pass attempt in his five seasons as a starter, and he has a healthy career touchdown percentage of 5.7. The pieces are all in place for him to return to stardom in 2011. |
|
| Tom Brady NE New England Patriots |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 4 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 344 | 519 | 4048 | 32 | 10 | 26 | 36 | 1 | 198 |
|  |
| The league's reigning MVP returns off an ungodly 36:4 TD:INT ratio and 7.9 yards per attempt, despite losing his top downfield threat in Randy Moss and his go-to possession receiver Wes Welker playing most of the year at less than full health. Brady only threw for 3,900 yards thanks to a five-year low 492 pass attempts, something that could persist given the team's running-back heavy draft. But with a touchdown percentage of 6.97 over the past three years, Brady's scoring efficiency is unmatched league wide, so the TD strikes should be there regardless. It also remains to be seen whether the team brings in a big-play receiver via free agency - at press time, incremental chain movers Deion Branch and Welker are slated to start. Brady had offseason surgery to repair a stress fracture in his foot, but he's expected to be 100 percent healthy for the start of the season.
|
|
| Philip Rivers SD San Diego Chargers |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 5 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 336 | 511 | 4417 | 30 | 10 | 27 | 46 | 1 | 186 |
|  |
| Antonio Gates missed six games. Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd combined to miss 16. Ryan Mathews missed four. A less-than-great offensive line allowed Rivers to get sacked 38 times after he went down just 25 times in each of the two years prior. While Rivers may have had it rough in 2010, you couldn't have guessed by looking at his numbers. He finished with career highs in both completion percentage (66.0) and yardage (4,710), and his 30 passing touchdowns were the second-highest total of his career. His 4,710 yards led the league, in fact. He also finished with an impressive average of 8.7 yards per attempt - his third year straight with a figure of 8.4 or better. It seems like no matter the conditions surrounding him, Rivers is a gamer and big-time playmaker who can be expected to put up numbers. He's in an offense that runs the ball more often than teams like Indianapolis and New Orleans, however, so it's unlikely he'll get enough pass attempts to repeat as the league's yardage leader. |
|
| Michael Vick PHI Philadelphia Eagles |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 6 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 262 | 429 | 3217 | 21 | 13 | 130 | 748 | 9 | 180 |
|  |
| If we could guarantee Vick would play 16 games in 2011, he'd be our No. 1 quarterback, hands down. In the games Vick started and finished (including against Green Bay in the playoffs), he averaged the following numbers: 254 yards, 1.9 touchdowns and .72 interceptions as a passer and 53 yards and .91 touchdowns as a runner. Those numbers would translate to roughly 4,064 yards, 30 touchdowns and 12 interceptions through the air with 848 yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground. But Vick's wild runs leave him much more vulnerable to injury than other quarterbacks. He had nearly four games wiped out last year due to a rib injury he suffered against the Redskins in Week 4, and he's only played 16 games once in his career. That includes two 12-game seasons in Philadelphia. So while Vick's potential is entirely unmatched, also realize you're likely to need a decent backup if you take him. But as long as he is on the field, he figures to be one of the top fantasy players at any position. The Eagles throw the ball often, and DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin might be the league's most talented wideout duo. |
|
| Matt Ryan ATL Atlanta Falcons |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 7 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 349 | 568 | 4419 | 29 | 13 | 47 | 92 | 0 | 174 |
|  |
| While Ryan's average of 6.5 yards per pass attempt the last two years is quite unimpressive, there are reasons to expect improvement in 2011. First, he averaged 7.9 yards per attempt his rookie season, so we already know he's capable of doing better than 6.5. Second, there's a good chance Ryan is still developing as a quarterback, and he has improved his touchdown totals each year in the league - from 16 to 22 to 29. Third, Atlanta added Alabama wideout Julio Jones with the sixth overall pick, giving up two first-round picks, a second-round pick and two fourth-round picks to get him. Adding Jones not only gives Ryan another target, but it should make it a bit tougher for defenses to roll coverage toward Roddy White. Finally, Ryan's eventual owners have to like the fact that he threw 571 passes last year - an average of 35.7 passes per game. If Ryan gets that many opportunities in 2011, expect him to do more with them than he did last year. |
|
| Ben Roethlisberger PIT Pittsburgh Steelers |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 8 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 330 | 513 | 4268 | 26 | 11 | 43 | 132 | 2 | 168 |
|  |
| Roethlisberger has averaged about 278.8 yards passing per game the last two years, a figure that would translate to roughly 4,460 yards over 16 games. In that same span he's averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game with a touchdown percentage right around 4.8. Multiply those numbers and you get about 25 passing touchdowns per year. Roethlisberger posted those numbers despite dealing with a badly beat up offensive line in 2010, with right tackle Willie Colon (Achilles) missing the entire season while Max Starks, the left tackle, missed nine games with neck and ankle injuries. With those two back in the lineup and emerging star Mike Wallace at receiver, Roethlisberger has a solid supporting cast to maintain his recent passing production. And while he's no Vick or Rodgers, Roethlisberger does a decent job of boosting his fantasy value by running the ball. He's a reliable source of 100-to-200 yards and two touchdowns on the ground each year. |
|
| Joe Flacco BAL Baltimore Ravens |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 9 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 322 | 523 | 3946 | 27 | 14 | 47 | 88 | 1 | 168 |
|  |
| He's limited by the run-heavy nature of his offense, but Flacco has been an efficient producer in his three-year career and has improved slightly with each season of experience he gains. Heading into his fourth season, the Ravens hope he'll take the next step - from good to great. While Derrick Mason and Anquan Boldin are aging, they remain generally effective possession targets, and second-round pick Torrey Smith provides Flacco with a big-play threat he's never had. With three solid wideout targets, a deep group of tight ends and Ray Rice serving both as an efficient runner and standout backfield target, the conditions should be favorable for Flacco in 2011. |
|
| Eli Manning NYG New York Giants |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 10 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 322 | 517 | 3946 | 28 | 14 | 24 | 51 | 0 | 168 |
|  |
| Manning has been a nice bargain for his fantasy owners the last two years, emerging as a cheap but effective fantasy starter after spending most of his career as a backup-type. After failing to post a figure any better than 6.8 yards per attempt in his first five seasons, Manning finished 2009 with an average of 7.9 and last year with an average of 7.4. That increased efficiency allowed him to finish those two seasons above 4,000 yards while posting successive career highs of 27 touchdowns in 2009 and 31 in 2010. Of course, last year's TDs came with a league-leading 25 interceptions, but an inordinate number of those were on tipped passes, and that number will almost certainly decline significantly. If Steve Smith recovers from his microfracture knee surgery, Manning will once again have a loaded group of receivers, with Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham and even rookie Jerrel Jernigan providing big-play potential. In any case, it seems as if this improved version of Manning is here to stay, and he should continue to be a solid option at quarterback. |
|
| Jay Cutler CHI Chicago Bears |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 11 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 304 | 500 | 3772 | 26 | 17 | 54 | 243 | 1 | 162 |
|  |
| While the Mike Martz offense didn't result in a bonanza of passing stats for Cutler last year, Cutler still showed significant improvement from his disappointing 2009 season, increasing his quarterback rating from 76.8 to 86.3. Despite that, it seems Cutler's fantasy stock is generally lower than it was a year ago, mostly because of a lackluster supporting cast and increasing durability concerns. The wideout trio of Johnny Knox, Devin Hester and Earl Bennett was mediocre at best, and the Chicago offensive line allowed a league-high 56 sacks, including 52 at Cutler's expense. Those sacks were costly, as Cutler missed time in the regular season with a concussion, reportedly the fifth he's suffered since college, and he was knocked out of the NFC Championship with an MCL tear. The addition of first-round tackle Gabe Carimi is great news, but he's only one upgrade on a line that could use two or three more. Cutler still brings a huge arm and some running ability to the table, but his supporting cast limits his ceiling. |
|
| Sam Bradford STL St. Louis Rams |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 12 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 358 | 559 | 4023 | 26 | 13 | 25 | 53 | 1 | 162 |
|  |
| Considering he missed most of his final collegiate season in 2009 at Oklahoma with a shoulder injury, Bradford's rookie year was promising. In addition to having his team in the hunt for a (weak as the NFC West might be) division title, Bradford threw more touchdowns (18) than interceptions (15) and completed 60 percent of his passes. As a smart player with a quick release and rare accuracy, Bradford only figures to improve. The additions of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, tight end Lance Kendricks (second round) and wideouts Austin Pettis (third round) and Greg Salas (fourth round) are all helpful, too. |
|
| Matthew Stafford DET Detroit Lions |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 13 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 306 | 504 | 3528 | 24 | 13 | 30 | 125 | 2 | 156 |
|  |
| Stafford would probably be ranked higher if he weren't such a health risk. He has dealt with injuries to his right knee and both shoulders in his two-year career, with two throwing-shoulder injuries limiting him to just three appearances last season. But in the games Stafford did play, he put up very nice fantasy numbers. He totaled 452 yards, six passing touchdowns, one interception and a rushing touchdown against Washington and the Jets. If he could just stay on the field, the strong-armed Stafford would be in a great position to build on those two games, as he has a good supporting cast at the skill positions-Mikel Leshoure and Jahvid Best at running back, Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler at tight end and Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson and Titus Young at wideout. |
|
| Matt Schaub HOU Houston Texans |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 14 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 371 | 571 | 4625 | 26 | 13 | 33 | 35 | 0 | 156 |
|  |
| After consecutive healthy seasons it looks like Schaub may have finally shaken the "injury prone" label, knock on wood. He posted very nice numbers in his last three years in Houston, averaging about 8.0 yards per attempt in an offense that gives him about 35 pass attempts per game. With Andre Johnson and a healthy Owen Daniels to throw to, he should be expected to maintain that level of productivity heading into next year. It also doesn't hurt that Arian Foster has the look of an elite NFL runner, so defenses have little choice but to bite hard on play-action in 2011. The only thing that keeps Schaub from moving higher in fantasy rankings is his general lack of upside. He offers basically nothing as a runner, and he has averaged just about 1.58 passing touchdowns per game in his last three seasons. That equates to a more than respectable average of roughly 25 passing touchdowns per year, but he'll need to do better than that if he's going to make a run at the likes of Rivers, Romo and Brady. |
|
| Peyton Manning DEN Denver Broncos |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 15 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 287 | 442 | 3150 | 26 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 156 |
|  |
| Like Drew Brees, Manning's actual play took a step back last year, the elite fantasy numbers notwithstanding. Manning's yards per-pass average fell from 7.9 in 2009 to 6.9 last year, so his career high of 679 pass attempts - 108 more than he had in 2009 - resulted in only 200 more yards, and the same number of touchdowns (33). You have to like his chances of improving his efficiency in 2011, however, because Indianapolis finally focused on fixing up its offensive line this offseason. That means a better running game to keep defenses honest as well as more time for Manning to stand in the pocket. First-round pick Anthony Castonzo has a good chance to be the team's best tackle since losing Tarik Glenn, and second-round Villanova product Ben Ijalana should give a good boost at guard. And while he won't be as up to speed in the team's system, fourth-round running back pick Delone Carter might be a better pure runner than either Joseph Addai or Donald Brown. It also can't hurt that Dallas Clark will be back in action after missing 10 games last year or that Austin Collie, who missed seven games, is healthy at press time. Manning himself underwent surgery to repair a bulging disc in his neck in May, but is expected to be healthy in time for the start of the season.
|
|
| Kevin Kolb BUF Buffalo Bills |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 16 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 319 | 522 | 3618 | 25 | 17 | 36 | 16 | 0 | 150 |
|  |
| Without a big arm or much running ability, Kolb relies on accuracy and timing. He was traded to Arizona in July and is a clear upgrade from the signal-callers the team rolled out last year. He has upside as the clear starter and just the ability to throw to Larry Fitzgerald could see him finish in the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks if all goes well.
|
|
| Josh Freeman TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 17 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 301 | 500 | 3657 | 24 | 11 | 72 | 367 | 1 | 150 |
|  |
| Freeman was one of the league's most pleasant surprises last year, changing from a mistake-prone rookie to a calm and efficient winner overnight from 2009 to 2010. He lowered his interception rate from 6.2 to 1.3 in that span while raising his touchdown percentage from 3.4 to 5.3. The result was 25 passing touchdowns to just six interceptions-impressive figures for a quarterback of any age, not to mention a 22-year-old in just his second season. His 364 yards on the ground were a nice bonus for his fantasy owners, as well. Impressive as those accomplishments are, Freeman's fantasy potential seems a bit limited by Tampa's run-first mentality - the team ranked 23rd with an average of 30.9 pass attempts per game in 2010. And while rookie wideout Mike Williams has the look of a potential star, Freeman's probable second and third targets (tight end Kellen Winslow and receiver Arrelious Benn) both have knee-injury concerns. It seems like Freeman's best days remain ahead of him, but he looks like a low-risk, low-reward fantasy option for the short term. |
|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick TEN Tennessee Titans |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 18 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 265 | 454 | 3178 | 21 | 14 | 41 | 223 | 2 | 138 |
|  |
| Fitzpatrick's play improved a great deal from 2009 to 2010, as he raised his quarterback rating from 69.7 to 81.8 while posting 23 passing touchdowns to 15 interceptions in 13 games. He also emerged as a surprisingly dangerous runner, taking off for 269 yards on just 40 attempts (6.7 yards per carry). Those are nice numbers, but it's tough to expect much improvement from the journeyman going forward. While wideout Steve Johnson had a breakout 1,073-yard, 10-touchdown season, Lee Evans had his second poor season in a row, and the team's offensive line remains questionable. In addition, Fitzpatrick's unimpressive line and tendency to scramble make him a bit of an injury worry. He missed one game with a knee injury last year and missed a 2009 contest with an ankle injury.
|
|
| Matt Cassel MIN Minnesota Vikings |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 19 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 296 | 501 | 3346 | 22 | 13 | 41 | 160 | 1 | 138 |
|  |
| Cassel's 2009 season in Kansas City was ugly, but he made a huge improvement in 2010, raising his quarterback rating from 69.9 to 93.0 and throwing 27 touchdowns to seven interceptions in the process. Last year seems like the best-case scenario with Cassel, however. His offense ran the ball more than any team in the league last year, and it's concerning that he didn't complete 60 percent of his passes or average seven yards per pass attempt. It also doesn't help that he was a bit hit-or-miss last year - 17 of his touchdowns were thrown in just five games, and he failed to reach the 200-yard mark in nine games. The addition of first-round rookie Jonathan Baldwin should help as the team had very little wideout production beyond Dwayne Bowe last year.
|
|
| Jason Campbell CLE Cleveland Browns |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 20 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 287 | 469 | 3471 | 22 | 12 | 55 | 270 | 1 | 138 |
|  |
| Although he's an underwhelming NFL starter, Campbell's playing time seems relatively safe in Oakland. While he doesn't show an ability to make plays as a passer, his athleticism and big arm have clearly won the intrigue of Al Davis. Campbell can be expected to post a quarterback rating in the mid-80s and make a few nice plays as a runner, but his touchdown percentage annually ranks near the bottom of the league, and his lack of big-play ability is compounded by the lack of established targets in Oakland.
|
|
| Mark Sanchez NYJ New York Jets |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 21 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 291 | 498 | 3423 | 19 | 9 | 34 | 108 | 2 | 126 |
|  |
| While he shows occasional flashes of brilliance, particularly in the playoffs, Sanchez's fantasy value remains limited by his mediocre production (6.5 YPA) and the Jets' run-heavy offense. His supporting cast from last year isn't guaranteed to remain intact, either, as both Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards are free agents. On the positive side, Sanchez has a good arm, moves well in the pocket and can scramble when necessary - he's managed 100-plus rushing yards and three scores on the ground in each of his first two seasons in the league. He should also get better in Year 3, and because the Jets are committed to him, job security is not an issue.
|
|
| Kyle Orton DAL Dallas Cowboys |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 22 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 266 | 416 | 3036 | 21 | 12 | 16 | 44 | 0 | 126 |
| |
| The new management is making a big effort to play up Orton's chances of starting in 2011, but it's tough to see it leaving the younger and more exciting Tim Tebow on the bench. But to bench Orton after how well he's played the last two years would be a waste, and it's difficult to imagine there wouldn't be demand for a 28-year-old signal-caller with 61 career starts and a quarterback rating in the high-80s the last two years. While Orton's not athletic and isn't known for having a huge arm, he has nonetheless demonstrated the ability to be a productive pocket passer and competent field general.
|
|
| Colt McCoy SF San Francisco 49ers |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 23 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 295 | 464 | 3266 | 17 | 13 | 67 | 281 | 3 | 120 |
|  |
| While he was promising as a rookie, the short term doesn't look to be especially favorable to McCoy's fantasy prospects. The Browns declined to add Alabama wideout Julio Jones in the draft, opting for Atlanta's trade offer instead, leaving McCoy again with what figures to be one of the worst wideout lineups in the league. To leave McCoy less vulnerable from his lack of targets, look for Cleveland to run Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty often. If McCoy doesn't have his opportunities limited by a run-heavy offense, his accuracy as a passer and ability to run make him worth monitoring.
|
|
| Donovan McNabb |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 24 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 198 | 336 | 2453 | 18 | 7 | 24 | 94 | 1 | 114 |
|  |
| All bridges burned in Washington, so McNabb was traded to Minnesota in July. His 2010 struggles (14 touchdowns to 16 turnovers) and history of durability troubles indicate he's unlikely to have a major revival. However, his poor performance in Washington may have been as much a factor of bad management and he'll have more weapons at his disposal even after Minnesota lost Sidney Rice.
|
|
| Alex Smith KC Kansas City Chiefs |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 25 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 221 | 382 | 2823 | 17 | 13 | 20 | 81 | 0 | 102 |
|  |
| Smith will return to the 49ers for 2011. Coach Jim Harbaugh has talked him up all offseason, and second-round pick Colin Kaepernick isn't a great fit as a starter for this year. If Smith does hold on to the starting spot in San Francisco, it's probably safe to expect more of the same - below average numbers and too much inconsistency. Harbaugh figures to install a run-heavy offense, so Smith's potential is limited even if he improves.
|
|
| Tarvaris Jackson BUF Buffalo Bills |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 26 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 260 | 462 | 3418 | 16 | 5 | 56 | 224 | 1 | 102 |
| |
| Jackson and new Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell worked together with the Vikings and he's likely to be the starter in Week 1. He has fantasy upside given his rushing ability, but he didn't show much when given a chance in Minnesota and may have less talent around him.
|
|
| Matt Hasselbeck IND Indianapolis Colts |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 27 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 230 | 372 | 2678 | 15 | 14 | 20 | 71 | 1 | 96 |
|  |
| Hasselbeck will be 36 in September, and he hasn't thrown more touchdowns than interceptions since 2007. That was also the last year he suited up for all 16 games. He'll start after signing with Tennessee, but his ceiling is low at this stage. |
|
| Rex Grossman WAS Washington Redskins |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 28 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 173 | 304 | 2219 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 21 | 0 | 90 |
|  |
| Grossman has re-signed with Washington, where he got his foot in the door by starting three games last year. And while he's generally a bit clumsy, he also showed the ability to put up numbers as a starter last year. While the four interceptions and four lost fumbles were bad, he also threw for seven touchdowns and averaged 280 passing yards per game in those three starts. If he starts in Washington over John Beck, Grossman could be useful when matchups are favorable.
|
|
| Andy Dalton CIN Cincinatti Bengals |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 29 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 195 | 328 | 2066 | 11 | 16 | 51 | 209 | 2 | 78 |
|  |
| On one hand, it's tough to see the former Mountain West star being an immediate hit in the NFL. On the other, he potentially has a favorable situation given Cincinnati's abundance of targets. Fourth overall pick A.J. Green is the most talented of the group, but Jerome Simpson, Andre Caldwell and Jordan Shipley were impressive in 2010, as well. And that's not even considering what 2010 first-round pick Jermaine Gresham might turn into at tight end. With Carson Palmer not likely to return, it'd be a huge surprise if his brother Jordan beat out Dalton for the starting spot. Of course, Cincinnati would presumably look to add a veteran in such a scenario.
|
|
| Cam Newton CAR Carolina Panthers |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 30 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 143 | 276 | 1739 | 7 | 9 | 93 | 455 | 6 | 78 |
|  |
| With a huge arm, a big build and 4.59 speed, Newton's potential is off the charts. But his one starting season in Division I was in Auburn's one-read option offense, meaning Newton has next to no familiarity with the NFL tasks ahead of him. For that reason, it's tough to see him winning the starting spot this year. But it's also tough to see Jimmy Clausen going a full season without getting benched or Derek Anderson being a star. If Newton gets an extended run of playing time, he's worth a look thanks to his running ability.
|
|
| John Beck |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 31 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 175 | 288 | 1872 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 60 |
| |
| Rex Grossman seems the more likely starter, as Beck has basically looked bad as a pro ever since he left BYU. Coach Mike Shanahan is reportedly a fan of Beck, but at the moment it's probably tough to see him starting ahead of Grossman even though officially it'll probably be considered a job battle throughout training camp.
|
|
| Matt Moore MIA Miami Dolphins |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 32 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 132 | 223 | 1628 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 54 |
|  |
| Moore has played in 23 games during his four-year career, and he could challenge for the Dolphins' starting quarterback job. |
|
| Chad Henne JAC Jacksonville Jaguars |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 33 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 141 | 244 | 1684 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 41 | 0 | 54 |
|  |
| Henne figures to be one of the league's least-safe starters heading into 2011. Even if Miami doesn't look to free agency or a trade for training camp competition for Henne, there's no guarantee Tyler Thigpen won't take the starting spot if Henne slips up. With a solid offensive line and a good group of wideouts led by Brandon Marshall, there are reasons to like Henne's situation. But after consecutive years with more interceptions than touchdowns, he needs to give Miami a reason to keep him on the field before any of that matters.
|
|
| Tim Tebow |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 34 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 55 | 100 | 771 | 4 | 14 | 48 | 231 | 5 | 54 |
| |
| Anything is possible, but it's tough to see Denver starting Kyle Orton ahead of Tebow. Tebow was an almost mythical figure well before he was anywhere near the NFL, and his impressive run as a three-game starter last year only fanned the flames of Tebow-mania. His windup, throwing motion and passing abilities in general remain concerns, but his bruising running ability is a constant that gives him high upside as a fantasy quarterback - he scored a rushing touchdown in each of his 2010 starts. With a talented and deep group of wideouts led by Brandon Lloyd, there'll be no shortage of targets for Tebow in Denver, either. Should it be written in stone that Tebow will start in 2011, he'd probably worth ranking higher. |
|
| Vince Young |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 35 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 70 | 122 | 927 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 114 | 1 | 48 |
| |
| Tennesse released Young after last year's drama and the selection of Jake Locker eighth overall. He later signed to be Michael Vick's backup in Philadelphia. As has been the case with him his whole career, he figures to be relatively unimpressive as a passer, but his wheels could make him worth a look. Although Vick is the clear starter for the Eagles, his running habits tend to leave him in harm's way more than most quarterbacks. As a result, Young will be closer to the field than most backup quarterbacks.
|
|
| Jake Locker TEN Tennessee Titans |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 36 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 73 | 137 | 973 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 134 | 3 | 42 |
| |
| Hasselbeck will start, but Locker and his 4.59 speed would be worth a look if he is ushered into a starting role against a favorable defense. And while Locker is considered raw, he might be better prepared for the NFL than expected after often facing heavy pressure on a mediocre Washington offense. If Kenny Britt stays out of trouble, Locker should have a legitimate No. 1 wideout as well.
|
|
| Christian Ponder MIN Minnesota Vikings |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 37 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 69 | 118 | 838 | 6 | 14 | 19 | 80 | 0 | 36 |
| |
| Minnesota has brought in Donovan McNabb, so Ponder will begin his career as a No. 2. He has shoulder durability issues, but he also is a mechanically sound player with good accuracy and above average athleticism. Minnesota got a lot of criticism for taking him 12th overall, but Ponder has the skill set to be a good NFL starter, and he'd likely have a good supporting cast once he gets in there.
|
|
| Bruce Gradkowski PIT Pittsburgh Steelers |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 38 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 74 | 132 | 903 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 36 | 0 | 36 |
| |
| Gradkowski already knows new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden's system from his days in Tampa Bay. It's possible that he, and not Andy Dalton, could be the Week 1 starter, and if that happens, Gradkowski would have a number of nice receiving options to throw to.
|
|
| Shaun Hill DET Detroit Lions |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 39 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 104 | 168 | 1150 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 50 | 0 | 30 |
| |
| As the backup for what might be the league's least durable quarterback, Hill is much closer to stepping onto the field than most No. 2 QBs. He was surprisingly productive last year, throwing for 250 yards or more in six of his 10 starts while totaling 16 passing touchdowns in the same span. You can probably expect a similar showing from the 10-year veteran if Matthew Stafford goes down again in 2011. |
|
| David Garrard |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 40 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 59 | 100 | 715 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 62 | 1 | 24 |
| |
| The arrival of Blaine Gabbert all but guarantees that Garrard won't be the quarterback of the future for Jacksonville, but he should still be able to hold off the rookie for most or all of 2011. Limited as he might be, Garrard is coming off one of the best years of his career, totaling 28 touchdowns (five rushing) in just 14 appearances. It'd be an upset if he held that rate of two touchdowns per game, but Garrard's rushing ability and general steadiness make him a solid backup option in most cases, especially with tight end Marcedes Lewis emerging as a reliable red-zone option.
|
|
| Jimmy Clausen CAR Carolina Panthers |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 41 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 55 | 93 | 595 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 0 | 18 |
| |
| Clausen was quite bad as a rookie, and, frankly, didn't give any reason for optimism. However, he has a good shot of heading into autumn as Carolina's default starter if he can beat out Derek Anderson, because Cam Newton figures to be very raw coming out of Auburn. Still, it's tough to see the Panthers enduring 16 more games of what Clausen had to offer a year ago, so he either needs to improve a great deal or get ready to see the bench a couple months into the year.
|
|
| Charlie Whitehurst SD San Diego Chargers |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 42 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 49 | 93 | 512 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 39 | 1 | 18 |
| |
| With Tarvaris Jackson being brough in, go ahead and scratch Whitehurst off most lists. The former Clemson quarterback is a project who never developed, and was only initially ranked somewhat high because Seattle emerged from the draft without any competition for him. Don't expect Whitehurst to win the starting spot.
|
|
| Seneca Wallace NO New Orleans Saints |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 43 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 39 | 58 | 406 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| |
| Wallace wants to compete for a starting spot in Cleveland, but nfortunately Colt McCoy is basically locked in as the team's starter. Wallace has proven to be a decent backup over his career, but he is what he is. McCoy has the chance to turn into something better. |
|
| Blaine Gabbert JAC Jacksonville Jaguars |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 44 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 40 | 64 | 401 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 31 | 0 | 12 |
| |
| Although it was a big surprise to see Gabbert fall to the 10th pick in the draft, it's still tough to see him stealing anything more than a start or two from David Garrard in 2011. Gabbert could have a lot to learn switching from Missouri's screen-heavy spread offense to a ball-control NFL offense, and it's not as if Garrard has been a huge liability as a starter. Unless Garrard regresses badly, he figures to be just good enough to stay on the field another year. |
|
| Colin Kaepernick SF San Francisco 49ers |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 45 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 21 | 39 | 271 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 158 | 2 | 12 |
| |
| While the WAC pistol quarterback figures to be quite raw, Kaepernick is a well-documented hard worker who could earn some starts if Alex Smith (or whoever else starts for the 49ers) slips up. In the event Kaepernick did start, he'd be worth a look as a fantasy option due to his 4.51 speed and rare arm strength. Even if he's too raw to make an impact as a passer, he figures to be an instant hit as a runner after piling up 4,109 yards and 59 touchdowns on the ground at Nevada. |
|
| Matt Flynn OAK Oakland Raiders |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 46 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 16 | 25 | 177 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
|  |
| The Packers plan to keep Flynn as the backup to Aaron Rodgers. Flynn's market value is solid after a strong starting performance in a Week 15 loss to the Patriots in which he threw for 251 yards and three TD's, but the Packers would have to absolutely blown away by a trade offer to relinquish Flynn, who has developed into a dependable backup for the team.
|
|
| Drew Stanton ARZ Arizona Cardinals |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 47 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 24 | 40 | 280 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 45 | 0 | 6 |
|  |
| Stanton will reprise his role as the team's No. 3 quarterback, but given the injury history of starter Matthew Stafford, the Lions were wise to retain him. |
|
| John Skelton CIN Cincinatti Bengals |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 48 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 21 | 36 | 234 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 35 | 0 | 6 |
| |
| Kevin Kolb was acquired to be Arizon's main guy, as coach Ken Whisenhunt indicated that he isn't comfortable with Skelton as a starting quarterback. He'll battle with Max Hall for the No. 2 spot. |
|
| Troy Smith |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 49 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 11 | 18 | 124 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
| |
| It looks like Smith will not be brought back into the mix in San Francisco, so at best he'll be a No. 2 wherever he ends up, and possibly a No. 3.
|
|
| Carson Palmer ARZ Arizona Cardinals |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 50 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| |
| It's anyone's guess how the standoff between Palmer and Bengals owner Mike Brown will end. Palmer seems entirely serious about never playing for Cincinnati again, while Brown seems equally committed to sending Palmer into retirement rather than trading him, unreasonable as that might be. Palmer isn't nearly as effective at this point as he was circa 2005, but he's still probably capable of winning a starting job somewhere. He threw for 3,970 yards and 26 touchdowns last year, though it took a career-high 586 pass attempts to get there. He'll likely need another pass-happy offense if he's going to approach last year's production. |
|
| Jordan Palmer |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 51 |  |
| | CMP | ATT | YDS | PTD | INT | RUSH | YDS | RTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 8 | 19 | 93 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| |
| Palmer begins the 2011 season as the No. 3 quarterback in Cincinnati, behind Andy Dalton and Bruce Gradkowski. Regardless of who is in front of him, Palmer likely won't see the field much, if at all, in 2011.
|
|
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