| Arian Foster HOU Houston Texans |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 1 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 308 | 1431 | 13 | N/A | 58 | 522 | 1 | 84 |
|  |
| Foster came seemingly out of nowhere to become the No. 1 fantasy back by a wide margin last year, which shows just how much opportunity and context matter when it comes to running backs. Entering the year with just 54 career carries, Foster led the NFL in rushing yards (1,616), rushing touchdowns (16) and also finished first among RBs with 604 receiving yards. It's important to note the Texans had one of the best run blocking units in the NFL, which benefitted Foster greatly. His 22 goal-line carries were the second-most in football, though he deserves credit for converting them at a strong rate (45 percent). He broke 49 total tackles, which ranked sixth in the league, but it required a lot of volume, as his per-touch missed tackle percentage (12.5) was well outside the top-15 RBs. While Houston projects to field a strong offense in 2011, the offensive line will have to remain dominant for Foster to reprise anything approaching last year's massive success. Foster had minor knee surgery in February but is expected to recover for the start of training camp. |
|
| Adrian Peterson MIN Minnesota Vikings |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 2 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 295 | 1340 | 13 | N/A | 45 | 446 | 1 | 84 |
|  |
| Peterson's numbers were down last season, when he finished with a career-low 1,298 rushing yards. Still, his YPC bounced back, and his ball security issues were corrected in a big way. Most of the drop in production can be pointed to a leg injury that cost him one game and decreased his usage, as he was given more than 17 carries in just one of the season's final nine contests. Peterson has battled the injury-prone label since entering the league, but last season's missed game was his first in the last three years. While nagging injuries plagued him over the second half, Peterson sill finished as the No. 3 fantasy back. Peterson remains the league's most elite back, as he led the NFL in broken tackles for the second year in a row (he finished second in 2008), and his continued development as a receiver is terrific news for his fantasy value. His conversion rate at the goal line (9-for-18) was also third best in football. There's reason to worry about Minnesota's quarterback situation, but it could hardly be worse than it was in 2010, and the team's offensive line played as a bottom-five unit last year as well. The last time the Vikings entered a season with such uncertainty at QB, the team relied heavily on Peterson, resulting in a career-high 1,760 rushing yards. Peterson is both the safest and highest upside pick on the board. |
|
| Chris Johnson TEN Tennessee Titans |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 3 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 310 | 1334 | 11 | N/A | 49 | 333 | 2 | 78 |
|  |
| It's not clear just what Johnson's contract situation will be come Week 1, but as of now, it looks not especially promising. Johnson reportedly wants to be paid like one of the NFL's top players, regardless of position, but Tennessee isn't willing to even make an offer unless he reports to training camp. In any case, if he is on the field, Johnson is obviously one of the elite running backs, though his numbers dropped off a bit last year. After totaling an NFL-record 2,509 yards from scrimmage in 2009, Johnson came back to earth last year with 1,609 total yards and five fewer touchdowns. There were two main culprits at play: Tennessee went from a pretty good run blocking unit in 2009 to quite possibly the worst in the NFL last season, and Johnson played through a painful thigh injury over a six-game stretch. Both contributed to his YPC dropping from 5.6 all the way to 4.3. Johnson isn't the best goal-line runner (5-for-15 last year), but he remains one of the most explosive backs in the league, as his 13 carries for 20-plus yards tied for the second-most in the NFL. He's also clearly the Titans' offensive centerpiece who might be relied on even more heavily with the team possibly turning to rookie Jake Locker at quarterback. A shaky QB situation is hardly ideal, but it's also something Johnson has dealt with throughout his career in Tennessee, and the team's offensive line can go nowhere but up. Moreover, wide receiver Kenny Britt is emerging as a legitimate superstar, so opposing defenses can't entirely focus on stopping Johnson.
|
|
| Maurice Jones-Drew JAC Jacksonville Jaguars |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 4 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 254 | 1219 | 9 | N/A | 38 | 321 | 2 | 66 |
|  |
| Jones-Drew suffered a knee injury in the preseason last year that required "minor" surgery, and while he impressively played the first 14 games, totaling 1,641 yards, he was eventually shut down over the final two. The injury clearly hampered him throughout the season and required arthroscopic surgery in January. Jones-Drew, who didn't suffer ligament damage, and is expected to be ready for the upcoming season, deserves credit for his consistent toughness and willingness to play through injuries (he had previously missed just one game throughout his career). After averaging 12.3 rushing touchdowns over his first four years in the league, with three of those coming in a timeshare, Jones-Drew recorded just five last season, thanks to just 13 goal-line carries (tied for 14th). But he was sixth in carries from inside the 10 with 28, and was on a pace to finish with a career-high 342 carries - all while playing on a torn meniscus. In short, there's every reason to think he'll be the team's workhorse back again, despite the strong showing from backup Rashad Jennings. |
|
| Darren McFadden OAK Oakland Raiders |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 5 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 219 | 1096 | 9 | N/A | 52 | 512 | 2 | 66 |
|  |
| While his teammate Michael Bush was typically drafted higher in fantasy leagues, McFadden ended 2010 as the sixth-best fantasy back, despite missing three full games and parts of others. In all, he totaled 1,664 yards with 10 touchdowns, so his season could have been epic had he stayed healthy. Of course, durability has always been a concern with McFadden, who's never played more than 13 games in any of his three years in the league, and last season's 223 rushing attempts were more than he had in his first two years combined. Known as a burner with sprinter type speed, which was evidenced by his NFL-high 14 rushes for 20-plus yards, McFadden also recorded 3.5 YPC after contact, which was the second best mark in football. He's also developed into one of the league's most dangerous receivers out of the backfield. Nonetheless, McFadden was given just four goal-line carries, and though he converted three, Michael Bush (13 goal-line attempts) appears to be the team's main short-yardage option. McFadden carries more risk than most backs who will be drafted early, but he also possesses as much upside as just about any running back in the league. |
|
| Rashard Mendenhall ARZ Arizona Cardinals |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 6 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 309 | 1378 | 11 | N/A | 31 | 239 | 0 | 66 |
|  |
| Mendenhall saw his YPC drop to 3.9 last season, but he was given 82 more carries and scored nearly twice as many rushing touchdowns (13 to 7) as he did in 2009. His 21 goal-line carries were the third most in football, and he converted 10 for scores. Despite the increase in rushing attempts, Mendenhall received a similar amount of snaps last year compared to 2009, so it's not surprising his receiving numbers took a step back. Mendenhall isn't a flashy runner, but he's got a nice spin move for someone his size, and he's clearly established himself as Pittsburgh's workhorse. For someone approaching 230 pounds, he has pretty good speed, as his 11 carries for 20-plus yards last season were fifth-most in the NFL. Mendenhall would benefit if Pittsburgh's O-line can rebound from a down year, and he's one of the few lead backs who gets the majority of the work between the 20s, catches passes and is the main option at the goal line. Just realize he's coming off the heaviest workload among all running backs, as the team's Super Bowl run meant he accumulated 385 carries. |
|
| Jamaal Charles KC Kansas City Chiefs |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 7 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 258 | 1439 | 7 | N/A | 52 | 491 | 4 | 66 |
|  |
| Despite receiving a modest 230 carries, which ranked 14th in the NFL, Charles finished second in the league with 1,467 rushing yards last season, thanks to a 6.378 YPC mark that was just .02 away from breaking Jim Brown's all-time record. Charles was active as a receiver (48 catches, 468 yards), but it was maddening to see the team's best player given more than 16 carries just three times over the season (with a high of 22 rushing attempts). Charles, who recorded an NFL-high 80-yard rush, is probably the league's fastest running back, but he's also much stronger than most speed backs, rarely going down at first contact. There are two main concerns regarding Charles, one being his lack of goal-line opportunities. His five goal-line carries last season tied for 40th in the league, though it's worth noting he converted four of them for scores. The other worry is coach Todd Haley, who seemingly will never trust Charles as a lead back. Still, Thomas Jones is now 33 and has a whopping 2,525 career carries, and he averaged a paltry 2.8 YPC over the final nine games last season, so Haley may be left with no choice but to give Charles more rushing attempts. There's an argument Charles is the best back in football, so only Haley can prevent him from threatening to be the No. 1 fantasy RB. |
|
| Shonn Greene TEN Tennessee Titans |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 8 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 288 | 1283 | 11 | N/A | 19 | 137 | 0 | 66 |
| |
| Greene was one of the bigger fantasy busts in 2010, thanks to the Jets' continued use of a committee and a drop in his performance. Greene's YPC fell from 5.0 to 4.1, he had just one carry for 20-plus yards and was given only three attempts at the goal line. Greene stayed healthy, albeit on a limited workload, and his improvement as a receiver over the second half of the year was an encouraging sign. After recording just two catches over the first 20 games of his career, he hauled in 14 receptions for 103 yards over his last nine contests. That's not exactly Marshall Faulk in his prime, but 250 additional receiving yards yearly is better than what Michael Turner gives you, and further development can be expected, even if LaDainian Tomlinson dominates third-down work. Greene is a powerful runner who has good speed for his size, and he also benefits from running behind one of the better offensive lines in football. The Jets have run the ball 1,141 times the last two years since Rex Ryan took over as head coach - that's 147 more carries than the next closest team (the Chiefs). Most important, Ryan has stated it's time to turn over lead back duties to Greene, and even Tomlinson has conceded as much. In fact, Tomlinson, who is now 32 and has 3,099 career rushing attempts, has actually requested fewer carries. Expect Tomlinson to be the team's third-down back, while Greene dominates the rest of the work. |
|
| Michael Turner |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 9 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 294 | 1149 | 11 | N/A | 9 | 65 | 0 | 66 |
|  |
| Turner racked up 1,371 rushing yards with 12 touchdowns last season, but his YPC dropped to 4.1, including a 3.6 YPC mark over the final five games. It's a concern when you consider how little he contributes as a receiver. After preseason talk of Turner increasing his activity in the passing game, he managed just 12 catches for 85 receiving yards. While both qualified as career highs, he's simply a one-dimensional RB. That's not to say he can't still be plenty valuable. Turner is a bruising runner with a low center of gravity who's not fun to tackle, as he led all backs in yards after contact last season with 941. Turner is also the league's premier goal-line back. His 72 rushing attempts in the red zone and 26 goal-line carries both led the NFL, and he's totaled 41 touchdowns in his past 42 games if you include the postseason and remove three other games in 2009 in which he left early with injuries. Atlanta's offense should be more dynamic after trading up to draft exciting WR Julio Jones. But that upgrade could be more than offset by a much tougher schedule in 2011. As Turner relies on volume and therefore game situations more than just about any other running back in football, having to play from behind more often and against tougher defenses could cut into his production. Turner is 29, but because he didn't become a starter until three years ago, his career workload remains low. |
|
| Frank Gore SF San Francisco 49ers |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 10 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 231 | 1102 | 7 | N/A | 54 | 488 | 3 | 60 |
|  |
| Gore totaled 1,305 yards with five touchdowns over essentially just 10 games before suffering a season-ending hip injury in Week 12 last year. Before that, he was on pace to record 74 catches for 723 receiving yards, and he averaged 125.3 total yards per game. (Only Arian Foster (138.8) and Darren McFadden (128.0) averaged more.) Gore is a football junkie who possesses excellent vision, and he'll remain the centerpiece of San Francisco's offense. New coach Jim Harbaugh is known as something of a quarterback guru, but his play calling was typically run-heavy during his tenure at Stanford. In fact, over his four seasons there, Harbaugh called a run on 58.9 percent of Stanford's offensive plays despite having quarterback Andrew Luck for the final two years. The upgrade in coaching should not be underestimated, and Gore will benefit. Be aware, however, Gore has played 16 games just once during his six years in the league, and he's missed a total of nine the last three seasons. At age 28 and with 1,371 career rushing attempts, he's undoubtedly an injury risk. |
|
| LeSean McCoy PHI Philadelphia Eagles |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 11 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 231 | 1108 | 8 | N/A | 74 | 588 | 2 | 60 |
|  |
| After a nondescript rookie campaign, McCoy totaled 1,672 yards with nine touchdowns last year. He gained 5.2 YPC, and his 78 receptions easily led all running backs (and his 592 receiving yards trailed only Arian Foster). There's some concern about McCoy's touchdown potential since he received just six goal-line carries, but he also led all backs with 15 targets in the red zone, including four inside the five-yard line. Add those targets in the passing game to his six carries, and you get the same amount of goal-line attempts backs such as Steven Jackson and Matt Forte received (and one more than Brandon Jacobs). Moreover, McCoy is highly elusive and explosive, as his five rushes for 40-plus yards led the NFL, so he's capable of scoring from anywhere on the field. McCoy only received 207 rushing attempts last year, but his 837 snaps tied for the third most among running backs, and that was with him sitting out Week 17 because Philadelphia had nothing to play for. It's clear the Eagles rely on him heavily, and it's a safe bet his rushing attempts increase during his third year in the league. McCoy also has the benefit of playing in a terrifically schemed Andy Reid offense that features Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Just 23, McCoy has the upside to finish as the top fantasy back in 2011. |
|
| Ryan Mathews SD San Diego Chargers |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 12 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 221 | 1017 | 9 | N/A | 27 | 211 | 1 | 60 |
|  |
| Mathews' rookie season was nothing short of disastrous, especially to those who spent an early fantasy pick on him. A high-ankle sprain suffered in Week 2 cost him a game, but worse, he returned too soon, and the injury limited him for the remainder of the season. He went 0-for-5 at the goal line and also fumbled a whopping five times, losing three, on just 158 carries. As a result, Mike Tolbert ended the year as San Diego's most valuable fantasy back. Mathews did show flashes of his ability, however, highlighted by a 120-yard, three-TD performance in Week 17, and the Chargers still consider him their franchise back. San Diego is consistently among the league-leaders in providing scoring opportunities at the goal line, and coach Norv Turner has traditionally preferred a lead ball carrier. There's top-five upside here if Mathews seizes the opportunity. |
|
| Tim Hightower |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 13 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 253 | 1138 | 8 | N/A | 28 | 208 | 2 | 60 |
| |
| Hightower got a career-high 4.8 YPC last season, but his activity in the passing game decreased greatly (his six drops were second most among all running backs), and he lost four fumbles for the second straight year. Traded to the Redskins in July, Hightower is a legitimate competitor in the race to win the starting spot in Washington, along with Roy Helu and Ryan Torain. As is the case with all three players, however, nothing is guaranteed.
|
|
| Brandon Jacobs |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 14 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 188 | 922 | 9 | N/A | 15 | 126 | 0 | 54 |
| |
| Jacobs ceded lead-back duties to Ahmad Bradshaw last season, and with fresher legs, he was highly productive on a per-play basis, averaging 5.6 YPC. He remains a poor receiver, but he added nine touchdowns and still finds himself in a good situation playing in New York. The fact that limiting Jacobs' carries resulted in him staying healthy over a full season may be bad news for his fantasy value, as it seems like a recipe that should continue. Even if Bradshaw were to get hurt, expect Danny Ware to get in the mix, as Jacobs is unlikely ever again to reach 225-plus rushing attempts, putting a ceiling on his fantasy value. |
|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis CIN Cincinatti Bengals |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 15 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 157 | 716 | 9 | N/A | 7 | 47 | 0 | 54 |
|  |
| Green-Ellis eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards and scored 13 touchdowns on the ground, second most in the NFL last season. Danny Woodhead was in the mix, but Green-Ellis essentially took over New England's backfield in the second half of the year. While he's a capable runner who's yet to fumble during his career, he's hardly special, as he benefited greatly from New England's terrific run blocking. According to Pro Football Focus, Green-Ellis' ratio of forced missed tackles per attempt ranked among the bottom 20 running backs in the NFL, so he can't do much on his own. He also struggles in pass protection, which might be a big reason why the Patriots used a second-round pick on Shane Vereen. Green-Ellis can retain value as the favorite to act as New England's goal-line back (he was 8-for-15 there last season), but don't be surprised if his rushing attempts take a significant hit while he's competing for carries with Woodhead and two rookies. |
|
| Peyton Hillis |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 16 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 239 | 1147 | 8 | N/A | 44 | 361 | 1 | 54 |
| |
| What looked like a throw-in as part of the Brady Quinn trade wound up being the centerpiece of the Browns' offense last year. Hillis took over Cleveland's backfield after injuries struck last season, and despite not starting until Week 3, racked up 1,654 yards from scrimmage and 13 touchdowns. Hillis was fantastic in all aspects besides ball security (his eight fumbles were the most in the NFL) last season, but he wore down badly over the year's second half as his YPC fell from 4.8 to 3.9, likely due to his bruising, physical style. Maybe he'll be better prepared to be a lead back in the NFL in 2011, but his fade came on a modest 270 rushing attempts, so it makes sense that Cleveland is planning on a committee in the backfield this year. Montario Hardesty is going to be a big part of the Browns' rushing attack, and even if he were to get hurt again, some other back would likely be brought in to split the work. |
|
| Ray Rice BAL Baltimore Ravens |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 17 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 278 | 1269 | 8 | N/A | 66 | 584 | 1 | 54 |
|  |
| After eclipsing 2,000 total yards during his second season in the league, Rice took a step back last year, as he finished with 119 fewer rushing yards despite seeing 53 more carries. Still, he finished with 1,776 yards from scrimmage and six scores, along with 63 catches. Part of the decrease in production was because Rice dealt with a knee injury over the first half of the season, and another problem was Baltimore's run blocking went from a major strength in 2009 to a weakness in 2010. Rice deserves plenty of blame himself, though, as he forced just five missed tackles on 307 rushing attempts, which was the lowest ratio in the NFL. Despite Rice's diminutive 5-8 frame, he's established himself as the Ravens' lead back (his 370 touches last year were the third most in the NFL), though he'll at best likely split goal-line work, regardless of Willis McGahee's status with the organization. |
|
| Matt Forte CHI Chicago Bears |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 18 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 247 | 1082 | 6 | N/A | 55 | 512 | 3 | 54 |
|  |
| Forte rebounded from a terribly underwhelming 2009 last year, as he totaled 1,616 yards with nine touchdowns. The Bears don't treat him like a true workhorse, but he's so active as a receiver it more than makes up for the lack of carries. The additions of QB Jay Cutler as well as offensive coordinator Mike Martz helped Forte reach 4.0 YPC for the first time in his career (he got 4.5 YPC) despite Chicago's offensive line being one of the worst in football. Surprisingly, Forte led the team in goal-line carries, though he continued to struggle mightily there (1-for-10). In fact, he's now just 3-for-28 at the goal line the last two seasons, so Chicago is likely to address that area in 2011, limiting Forte's touchdown potential. However, he might be due for an increase in carries between the 20s, as Chester Taylor will turn 32 this season and averaged just 2.4 YPC in 2009. As one of the league's best receiving backs, Forte doesn't need more than 250 carries to be plenty productive. Just don't expect a ton of touchdowns. |
|
| Jahvid Best DET Detroit Lions |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 19 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 210 | 924 | 6 | N/A | 66 | 528 | 3 | 54 |
|  |
| Best's rookie season got off to a great start, as he totaled 268 yards with five touchdowns over his first two games. Dual turf toe injuries ruined the rest of his year, however, as he scored just one more time and never topped 65 rushing yards over the next 15 weeks. The injury forced him to miss only one game, but his lack of burst was evident, and he was virtually useless outside of PPR formats. Best averaged an NFL-low 1.8 YPC after contact last season, but again, it's possible the toe injuries are entirely to blame. Coaches raved about him in preseason, and if the first two games were any indication, there's a lot of upside here, especially with his ability as a receiver in what could soon shape up to be an explosive Detroit offense. Unfortunately, the Lions drafted Mikel Leshoure, and while they claim Best will get the majority of carries, he remains an injury risk who's unlikely to get many goal-line opportunities.
|
|
| LeGarrette Blount NE New England Patriots |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 20 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 254 | 1103 | 8 | N/A | 16 | 162 | 1 | 54 |
|  |
| Blount went from undrafted rookie to one of the better running backs in the NFL last season, and few saw it coming. He would have been drafted, and maybe even within the first few rounds, had he not been suspended during his senior season at Oregon for punching an opposing player following a season-opening loss, so it wasn't a question of talent. Blount led the NFL in broken tackles as a runner with 50, which is a remarkable feat considering his 201 carries ranked just 22nd. His 3.7 YPC after contact also was the best in football. Blount doesn't come without fleas, however, as he's shown nothing as a receiver and despite his big build (6-0, 247), his coaches lost trust in him in short-yardage situations, and the stats backed them up (Blount was just 2-for-9 at the goal line). Blount is unlikely to start racking up catches, so securing the role at the goal line will be crucial to his fantasy value. There's no reason he can't succeed there given his physical attributes as he already possesses the best hurdle in the NFL, and while some question his speed, his three carries for 40-plus yards and 10 carries for 20-plus yards last season both equaled Jamaal Charles' output. QB Josh Freeman and WR Mike Williams look like stars in the making, so this Bucs' offense could soon be dangerous. With his ability to break tackles, Blount's numbers could be scary good if Tampa Bay's poor offensive line improves. |
|
| Joseph Addai |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 21 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 163 | 719 | 6 | N/A | 29 | 228 | 3 | 54 |
| |
| A shoulder injury derailed Addai's season last year, limiting him to just eight games and making him a part of a committee in others. He finished with career-lows in rushing yards (495), receiving yards (124) and touchdowns (four), though his 4.3 YPC mark was actually the second best he's ever recorded. Addai is a free agent, but the safe bet is his returning to the Colts. He doesn't possess much speed, but his style fits well within Indy's system, and he's terrific in pass protection, which is most important when it comes to the Colts offense. Donald Brown appears to be a bust, but Indianapolis drafted Delone Carter in the fourth round, and at minimum, he'll take over short-yardage work, which limits Addai's scoring potential. Coming off a poor 2010 and as a boring veteran, Addai could provide nice value, but there are backup running backs with more upside. |
|
| Mike Tolbert CAR Carolina Panthers |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 22 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 144 | 583 | 8 | N/A | 21 | 198 | 1 | 54 |
|  |
| Tolbert had never received more than 25 carries in a season before last year, when he got 182 rushing attempts thanks to Ryan Mathews' injury problems. Tolbert took advantage, rushing for 11 touchdowns, as he went 10-for-18 at the goal line. Any lead back for Norv Turner's San Diego offense would possess plenty of fantasy value, but it's clear Tolbert is an inferior talent to Mathews, so he's slated for a backup role in 2011. Tolbert will be one of the most important handcuffs, however. |
|
| DeAngelo Williams CAR Carolina Panthers |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 23 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 226 | 1017 | 8 | N/A | 21 | 181 | 1 | 54 |
| |
| Williams' season ended after just six games last year, thanks to a sprained foot. His numbers were down before the injury, though, in large part due to Carolina's collapse as a team. Williams has a career 5.0 YPC mark and is one of the five best running backs in the NFL when it comes to talent, with excellent size, speed, tackle-breaking ability and vision. He'll likely split work with Jonathan Stewart on a bad team, which hurts his value. Williams is 28 with only 841 career rushing attempts, so he's still firmly in his prime and should be able to bounce back from the foot sprain. |
|
| Jonathan Stewart CAR Carolina Panthers |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 24 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 233 | 1072 | 8 | N/A | 11 | 101 | 0 | 48 |
| |
| After recording 20 rushing scores his first two years in the league, Stewart reached the end zone just twice last season. He also finished with a career-low 770 rushing yards despite DeAngelo Williams missing the final 10 games with an injury. A concussion, Mike Goodson's emergence and Carolina turning into the worst team in football were all contributing factors to Stewart's worst season as a pro. Stewart also lost four fumbles, which is glaringly bad considering his workload, but that had never been a big problem before. Stewart still managed to break 30 tackles last season, which tied for the 11th most in the NFL, and every back ahead of him played significantly more snaps except for LeGarrette Blount. Last year aside, it's clear Stewart is one of the more talented running backs in football, with legitimate tackle-breaking ability and a nose for the end zone. However, with Williams returning to Carolina, his upside will be limited. |
|
| Ryan Grant |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 25 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 203 | 864 | 8 | N/A | 19 | 135 | 0 | 48 |
| |
| After never missing a game due to injury in his career, Grant suffered a broken ankle that ended his season in the first half of Week 1 last year. He should enter 2011 fully recovered after surgery in September, but he'll be competing for carries with James Starks, who impressed during Green Bay's Super Bowl run. Green Bay also spent a third-round pick on RB Alex Green out of Hawaii. Grant is one year removed from a 1,253-rushing yard, 11-TD campaign and is just 28, so he can't be written off, but nothing will be given to him, and Starks might have more raw talent. A committee is the most likely outcome, but if the Packers turn back to their proven veteran, Grant would be in a favorable situation, playing in one of the league's elite offenses. |
|
| Ahmad Bradshaw |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 26 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 238 | 1119 | 8 | N/A | 38 | 304 | 0 | 48 |
| |
| Bradshaw switched roles with Brandon Jacobs last year, taking over as New York's lead back. He made the most of it, totaling 1,549 yards and eight touchdowns. Bradshaw needs to improve his ball security, as his six lost fumbles were the most in the NFL, but his 13 carries for 20-plus yards were the second most in the league. Bradshaw was one of the best blockers among all backs in football last season, and his 42 broken tackles were the fifth-most in the NFL on a modest 276 rushing attempts. He even received as many goal-line carries (nine) as Jacobs, converting five. Bradshaw played the final six weeks with a broken left wrist and underwent an offseason ankle scope during, which marked the fourth procedure on his feet and ankles in the previous two years. He's an injury risk, but he hasn't missed many games throughout his career and has proven a willingness to play through pain. There's some uncertainty, but he'll once again get the majority of the carries after re-signing with the Giants.
|
|
| Knowshon Moreno DEN Denver Broncos |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 27 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 256 | 1111 | 5 | N/A | 43 | 411 | 3 | 48 |
|  |
| Moreno has underwhelmed since being taken with the No. 12 pick in the 2009 draft, as he's yet to reach 1,000 yards rushing in either of his two years in the league and boasts a modest 4.0 YPC mark. Although he's missed just three games over that span, injuries have limited him in many others, so durability is a concern. Injuries can't totally be blamed, however, as he's simply not a special back even when healthy. Moreno has recorded just five carries for 20-plus yards during his career and not one for 40-plus. His YPC after contact (2.5) last season tied for 36th in the NFL. The new regime in Denver didn't address the running back situation in the draft, but they did pick up Willis McGahee, who will likely steal some carries. Still, new VP of football operations John Elway has already stated he hopes it's Moreno's "breakout year," and Moreno is once again slated to be the Broncos' starting halfback. If Moreno can stay healthy, he'll get consistent early down work and catch enough passes to be plenty valuable even if he's not special. |
|
| Fred Jackson BUF Buffalo Bills |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 28 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 244 | 1050 | 6 | N/A | 37 | 289 | 2 | 48 |
|  |
| Jackson was something of an afterthought entering 2010, as the Bills used the No. 9 overall pick to draft C.J. Spiller and still had Marshawn Lynch on their roster. After Spiller proved unready for the NFL and Lynch was traded, Jackson once again was the last man standing. In fact, after Lynch was jettisoned, Jackson totaled 1,055 yards with six touchdowns over 12 games. His eight dropped passes were most among running backs, but he also improved greatly in pass protection. With a shaky offensive line, Buffalo isn't an ideal situation, but Ryan Fitzpatrick gives them a better QB in 2011 than a handful of teams who will be relying on rookies. In the end, though, Jackson's value ultimately comes down to Spiller's development. Unless Spiller takes great leaps, Jackson will yet again be an underrated and productive fantasy option. |
|
| Steven Jackson ATL Atlanta Falcons |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 29 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 274 | 1207 | 8 | N/A | 56 | 450 | 0 | 48 |
|  |
| Jackson managed to play in all 16 games last season for the first time since 2006, and though he recorded a career-low 3.8 YPC, he still totaled 1,624 yards. Jackson is still just 28 years old, but he's already approaching 2,000 career rushing attempts, as no back in football has been worked harder in recent memory. In fact, he has more touches than any other RB in the NFL since 2005 - this despite missing 10 games over that span. Jackson has averaged just 6.0 touchdowns the last six years, and on 10 rushes inside the five-yard line last season, he gained a net total of zero yards, reaching paydirt only twice. Part of the blame belongs to the Rams' porous offensive line, but the heavy workload has also sapped some of Jackson's explosiveness. He remains a hard runner with excellent vision and will again be asked to carry St. Louis' offense, but Jackson is a pretty significant injury risk now on the downside of his career. With offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels coming onboard and Sam Bradford likely to take a leap soon, the Rams are moving in the right direction, but unfortunately, it's at a time in Jackson's career when he's moving the other way. |
|
| Mark Ingram NO New Orleans Saints |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 30 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 214 | 1049 | 7 | N/A | 29 | 235 | 1 | 48 |
|  |
| The Saints traded up to draft Ingram with the No. 28 pick, and as a result, he looks like the favorite to lead the team in carries in 2011. After winning the Heisman trophy in 2009, Ingram battled injuries during his junior season last year, though he still managed to total 14 touchdowns on limited carries in 10 games. Not overly fast or super athletic, Ingram is a hard runner often compared to Emmitt Smith. Of course, expecting similar production would be foolish, even in the league's No. 1 offense for two of the last three years. While the Saints should provide plenty of scoring opportunities, trusting coach Sean Payton is another thing, as he's unpredictable when it comes to distributing carries. Pierre Thomas seemingly can't stay healthy, but he's a more than capable back when on the field, and last year's team rushing leader Chris Ivory will also be in the mix. Another committee could easily emerge, but if Ingram somehow becomes a feature back in this offense (he only averaged 15.9 carries per game in college), there's a lot of upside. There's some concern about the degenerative arthritis in Ingram's knee, but Dr. James Andrews recently gave him a full clean bill of health. |
|
| Felix Jones PHI Philadelphia Eagles |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 31 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 237 | 1091 | 6 | N/A | 39 | 355 | 1 | 42 |
| |
| Jones was finally given a chance to lead the Cowboys in carries last season, but the end result was disappointing, as his YPC dropped to 4.3, and he recorded just two touchdowns. He bulked up in anticipation of a bigger workload, and it may have sapped some of his explosion, so a return to his old playing weight may result in more big plays in 2011. Still, he's an injury risk who rarely sees action at the goal line (he's just 1-for-6 there over the past two years) and likely to be a part of a timeshare again. Marion Barber's impending exit seems like a plus on the surface, and it was nice to see Jones get more involved as a receiver last season, but don't be surprised if Tashard Choice and rookie DeMarco Murray are both also heavily involved in the offense. |
|
| Michael Bush CHI Chicago Bears |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 32 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 139 | 653 | 7 | N/A | 16 | 144 | 0 | 42 |
| |
| Bush entered 2010 as the favorite to be Oakland's lead back, but Darren McFadden's breakout relegated him to second string. At 6-2, 247, Bush is well suited to short-yardage and goal-line work, and last year saw 13 carries from inside the five to McFadden's six. Otherwise, McFadden will see the bulk of the work both on the ground and as a receiver out of the backfield. Given Bush's size, and McFadden's injury history, Bush is worth stashing late, but if McFadden stays healthy, it's hard to see the upside. |
|
| Delone Carter IND Indianapolis Colts |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 33 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 131 | 647 | 7 | N/A | 6 | 44 | 0 | 42 |
|  |
| The Colts selected Carter in the fourth round of the draft, hoping he can solve the team's problems in short-yardage. Carter is a powerful back who runs downhill and should provide an element that has been missing from the Colts' backfield for years. Joseph Addai is a free agent, but odds are he returns to Indy, leaving Carter as only a situational runner. Still, Carter should dominate goal-line work, and playing in the Colts' offense, that could result in double-digit touchdowns. If Addai were to sign elsewhere or get hurt again, Carter would be the favorite for carries over perennial disappointment Donald Brown. |
|
| Beanie Wells |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 34 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 205 | 902 | 7 | N/A | 11 | 121 | 0 | 42 |
| |
| If Wells' rookie year was considered a letdown, his sophomore campaign was a downright disaster. He suffered a preseason knee injury that required surgery to repair a torn meniscus and remove loose cartilage, and he later admitted he never felt 100 percent the rest of the year. The numbers are ugly, as he averaged just 3.4 YPC and broke only four tackles all season, and while the injury can be blamed, it eases no concerns over his inability to stay healthy. Still, he won't turn 23 until late summer, so he's not much older than most rookies entering the league, and he has shown flashes of being a more than capable back. Plus, Tim Hightower is no longer around. Still, with the Cardinals investing an early second-round pick in Ryan Williams, Wells' stock isn't all that great either, but he still has the potential to make a major impact, if he's able to stay out of the trainer's room.
|
|
| Daniel Thomas MIA Miami Dolphins |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 35 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 204 | 816 | 6 | N/A | 24 | 212 | 1 | 42 |
|  |
| The Dolphins traded up to draft Thomas with the No. 62 pick, and all signs point to the rookie immediately becoming the team's feature back. Thomas, who racked up 1,856 total yards and 19 touchdowns as a senior at Kansas State, has three-down ability and could even see time out of the Wildcat. Thomas wasn't able to run at the Combine because of a lingering hamstring injury, but noted prospect guru Mike Mayock rated him as the No. 2 running back in the draft, and he's been compared to Larry Johnson in his prime. At press time, all signs point to Ricky Williams leaving Miami, and Ronnie Brown has already moved to Philadelphia. Reggie Bush has his own talents and won't pose a huge threat in the running game to the rookie with fresh legs. Rookies can be gambles as we don't know how they'll react to the pro game, but running back is also the easiest position to pick up coming from college, and while Thomas may not be a truly special talent, he's the rookie in the best position to succeed right out of the gate.
|
|
| Pierre Thomas NO New Orleans Saints |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 36 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 96 | 448 | 4 | N/A | 28 | 261 | 2 | 36 |
| |
| Thomas struggled with injuries again last season and was limited to just six games, in which he averaged only 3.2 YPC and scored a paltry two touchdowns. A dynamic back while on the field with no glaring weaknesses, Thomas has never reached 150 rushing attempts during any of his four seasons in the league. Even if he somehow manages to stay healthy in 2011, he now has to compete with rookie Mark Ingram for touches, and Thomas has never seemed to have coach Sean Payton's faith to begin with. The window for Thomas to take over as the Saints lead back has likely closed.
|
|
| C.J. Spiller BUF Buffalo Bills |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 37 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 141 | 620 | 3 | N/A | 36 | 277 | 3 | 36 |
| |
| It would be foolish to write off last year's ninth overall pick completely, but Spiller fumbled five times on just 74 rushing attempts and struggled mightily in pass protection. Failing to gain any trust among Buffalo's coaching staff, Spiller didn't receive double-digit carries in a single game. After scoring 21 touchdowns from 50-plus yards during his collegiate career, Spiller produced just two plays that went for 20-plus yards as a rookie. At his season-ending press conference, coach Chan Gailey referred to Spiller as a "Reggie Bush type back," which is not an endorsement of Spiller's ability to log heavy carries. This is Fred Jackson's backfield in Buffalo. |
|
| Reggie Bush DET Detroit Lions |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 38 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 188 | 713 | 3 | N/A | 56 | 412 | 3 | 36 |
| |
| Bush missed half of last season after suffering a broken leg, and he was never truly healthy after returning, so it was essentially a lost year. He was traded to Miami in July and will be the third down and receiving back compliment to Daniel Thomas. He may get more touches with the Dolphins than he did with the Saints. Still, Bush is a situational player who has little value outside of PPR formats.
|
|
| Cedric Benson |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 39 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 271 | 934 | 6 | N/A | 21 | 143 | 0 | 36 |
| |
| The Bengals re-signed Benson after he ran for 1,111 yards and seven touchdowns last season, once again acting as the team's workhorse. Benson might be the least explosive starting back in the NFL, as he averaged an ugly 3.5 YPC and recorded just two carries for 20-plus yards over 321 rushing attempts. Benson is one of the most boring picks, but barring a complete collapse after back-to-back 300-carry campaigns, he does have a nice floor if he returns to Cincinnati. The Bengals would likely use him as a feature back once again, and he was given 62 carries in the red zone last season, including 20 at the goal line (though he only converted six into scores). Just realize there's not much upside, as he finished outside the top-15 fantasy RBs despite getting the fifth most touches.
|
|
| Marshawn Lynch SEA Seattle Seahawks |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 40 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 221 | 906 | 6 | N/A | 24 | 163 | 0 | 36 |
|  |
| After splitting work in Buffalo over four games, Lynch was traded to the Seahawks last season, where he was instituted as the team's lead back. It didn't result in a lot of fantasy usefulness, as Lynch averaged just 3.5 YPC and didn't add much as a receiver. He was running behind one of the worst offensive lines in football, but Lynch struggles to make defenders miss, his epic touchdown run in the Wild Card round notwithstanding. His 15 goal-line carries tied for the eighth most in the NFL, but he converted just five for scores. Seattle didn't address the running back position in the draft, so Lynch still sits atop the team's depth chart. But even if he again leads the Seahawks in carries, modest results are likely to follow. |
|
| Kendall Hunter SF San Francisco 49ers |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 41 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 106 | 541 | 4 | N/A | 20 | 146 | 1 | 30 |
| |
| Hunter isn't a burner, but he's still an elusive and quick runner who's tough to track in traffic and is already being projected to be the 49ers' No. 2 running back in 2011. San Francisco's backfield belongs to Frank Gore, but he's played 16 games just once during his six-year career and is coming off hip surgery. Hunter could make an immediate fantasy impact if Gore were again to go down. This team is going to run the ball a ton under new coach Jim Harbaugh.
|
|
| Roy Helu WAS Washington Redskins |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 42 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 107 | 558 | 5 | N/A | 14 | 122 | 0 | 30 |
|  |
| The Redskins traded up to take Helu in the fourth round of the draft, and coach Mike Shanahan has already stated he'll be given every opportunity to compete for the team's starting role. Helu ran for 1,245 yards and 11 touchdowns on just 188 carries during his senior year at Nebraska last season and impressed at the Combine with a 4.40 40. Ryan Torain played well last year, but he's a huge injury risk, and Shanahan covets Helu's breakaway speed, an attribute Torain doesn't possess. Don't forget how productive a lead back in Shanahan's system can be. Helu is the type of late pick who can win your league for you.
|
|
| Willis McGahee DEN Denver Broncos |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 43 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 176 | 774 | 5 | N/A | 18 | 111 | 0 | 30 |
| |
| One year after scoring 14 touchdowns, McGahee was used strictly in a backup role last season, though he did lead Baltimore with nine goal-line carries. He signed with Denver this summer and will likely resume a similar goal-line role while taking a few carries away from Knowshon Moreno.
|
|
| Montario Hardesty CLE Cleveland Browns |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 44 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 100 | 450 | 4 | N/A | 15 | 120 | 1 | 30 |
|  |
| Before a healthy senior year at Tennessee, Hardesty had a lengthy injury history, including a high ankle sprain, a stress fracture in his foot, a shoulder subluxation and two separate surgeries on his knee, one the microfracture variety. And that was before he suffered a torn ACL during training camp with the Browns last season. Cleveland envisions a one-two punch with Hardesty and Peyton Hillis in the backfield, and Hardesty has the talent to be worthy of splitting the carries, but he's a long shot to stay healthy at this point.
|
|
| James Starks GB Green Bay Packers |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 45 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 158 | 663 | 5 | N/A | 4 | 24 | 0 | 30 |
|  |
| Starks wasn't able to take advantage of Ryan Grant's season-ending ankle injury last year because he, too, was battling a hamstring strain that had him open the year on the PUP. In fact, it was something of a miracle he didn't land on IR. Apparently, the team knew it had something in the sixth-round pick, and its patience was rewarded when Starks became the team's workhorse in the playoffs, averaging 20.3 carries per game. While his 3.9 YPC mark doesn't jump out, he faced stiff competition and passed the "eye test." He also has his coaches' confidence, so if Starks can prove durable, he can play a big role in Green Bay's backfield in 2011. Just keep in mind Grant will be back, and third-round draft pick Alex Green could be in the mix as well. |
|
| Ryan Torain NYG New York Giants |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 46 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 121 | 545 | 4 | N/A | 14 | 95 | 1 | 30 |
|  |
| Drafted by the Broncos in 2008, Torain entered last season having appeared in just two NFL games due to his inability to stay healthy. He reunited with Mike Shanahan last year in Washington and finally proved his on-field worth, totaling 751 yards with five touchdowns over eight starts. While the injuries have taken a toll on Torain's explosiveness and he struggles in pass protection, his one-cut-and-go style is perfect for Shanahan's scheme, and his 32 total forced missed tackles on only 182 touches was impressive. Torain is still a major health risk, so the Redskins spent two draft picks on running backs, including Roy Helu, who's a threat to start right away. Torain is not to be forgotten, but it may again take injuries (his own not included) for him to be a factor again. |
|
| Danny Woodhead SD San Diego Chargers |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 47 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 96 | 509 | 2 | N/A | 41 | 429 | 2 | 24 |
| |
| Released by the Jets in training camp, Woodhead joined New England and made an impact. As a situational player, he totaled 926 yards and six touchdowns on just 131 touches. Expect him to be used similarly in 2011 as a member of a crowded Patriots' backfield that includes BenJarvus Green-Ellis and two rookies. Woodhead has more value in PPR formats.
|
|
| Shane Vereen NE New England Patriots |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 48 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 54 | 260 | 3 | N/A | 18 | 151 | 1 | 24 |
| |
| The Patriots used the No. 56 pick to draft Vereen, which was something of a surprise with more highly regarded running backs like Daniel Thomas and Mikel Leshoure still on the board. Of course, it would be foolish to question coach Bill Belichick, and Vereen was considered the most NFL ready RB in the draft when it comes to pass protection. New England also used a third-round pick on another running back and still has BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead, so this looks like a full-blown committee. Even as a rookie, Vereen might already be the team's most complete back, and after watching pedestrian runners line up for him the last few years, it's telling Belichick would spend a second-round pick on such a fungible position. Vereen is an intriguing name not to be overlooked. |
|
| LaDainian Tomlinson |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 49 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 76 | 333 | 3 | N/A | 41 | 305 | 1 | 24 |
| |
| After getting just 3.3 YPC in 2009, it appeared Tomlinson might be done, but he bounced back and totaled 1,282 yards with six touchdowns last season. A big improvement going from San Diego's offensive line to New York's certainly helped, and Tomlinson continued to run hard. Still, the end is near. After averaging 4.9 YPC over the first half of the season, Tomlinson dropped to 3.3 during the second half, and he's requested the Jets decrease his carries in 2011, content to be solely the team's third-down back. It's for the best, as Tomlinson is 32 and has accrued a whopping 3,099 career rushing attempts. |
|
| Bernard Scott CIN Cincinatti Bengals |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 50 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 172 | 771 | 4 | N/A | 14 | 98 | 0 | 24 |
| |
| Scott produces when given the chance, but he's viewed as nothing more than a change-of-pace back used sparingly as the Bengals feed Cedric Benson the vast majority of the carries. Benson could break down at any moment, but the team probably doesn't view Scott as a lead back, so he'd remain in a timeshare even if Benson were to suffer a serious injury. But at press time, he's the best Benson insurance policy.
|
|
| Jason Snelling ATL Atlanta Falcons |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 51 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 77 | 331 | 2 | N/A | 33 | 271 | 2 | 24 |
| |
| When Michael Turner left the field last season, the offense rarely missed a beat. That's because Snelling, who also brings receiving skills to the table that Turner doesn't possess, is capable of running between the tackles the way Atlanta's offense requires. While Snelling might lose some third-down work to rookie Jacquizz Rodgers, his value is more dependent on Turner's health. Turner has been worked hard since coming to Atlanta and has been banged up the last couple years. If Turner went down, Snelling would find himself in an excellent environment for fantasy production. |
|
| Darren Sproles NO New Orleans Saints |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 52 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 34 | 166 | 0 | N/A | 44 | 414 | 4 | 24 |
| |
| While it would be interesting to see what Sproles could do with 200 carries (assuming it didn't result in death), it appears he'll never be given the opportunity, thanks to his 5-6, 190-pound frame. A terrific blocker, Sproles got 5.3 YPC and was once again one of the league's best receiving backs in the NFL last season, racking up 59 catches for 520 yards. A similar role should follow him to New Orleans, where there's a host of runners but also an offensive system that will find a way to make use of his exciting skills. He's a passing-down back who possesses far more fantasy value in PPR formats than in standard leagues.
|
|
| Marion Barber |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 53 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 88 | 343 | 4 | N/A | 9 | 62 | 0 | 24 |
| |
| Barber once again battled through injuries last season, limiting him to 13 games. Both his 3.3 YPC and four touchdowns were career lows. It appears all that punishment he invited with his physical style of play has caught up with him, as Barber looks nothing like the explosive, tackle-breaking machine he was a few years ago. In fact, he was an anemic 3-for-15 at the goal line in 2010. He was released by Dallas and signed with Chicago, and while it's possible he retains some fantasy value, the most likely outcome is he remains a situational player whose days of 200 touches are finished.
|
|
| Anthony Allen BAL Baltimore Ravens |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 54 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 84 | 390 | 4 | N/A | 4 | 25 | 0 | 24 |
| |
| The Ravens selected Allen with the 225th pick of the draft. He's untested as a pass catcher and played in Georgia Tech's triple-option, but he still has the look of a potentially good runner in the NFL. Willis McGahee won't return to Baltimore, so despite not getting drafted until the seventh round, Allen could immediately become Baltimore's goal-line back. He'll enter camp battling for the team's RB2 role behind Ray Rice.
|
|
| Donald Brown IND Indianapolis Colts |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 55 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 91 | 388 | 4 | N/A | 16 | 180 | 0 | 24 |
| |
| Two years into the league, Brown looks like a bust. The former first-round pick has constantly battled injuries, and when on the field, he's averaged just 3.8 YPC during his career while struggling in pass protection, which isn't acceptable in Indianapolis. As a result, the Colts drafted Delone Carter, and since Joseph Addai is expected back, Brown enters 2011 likely no better than third on the depth chart.
|
|
| Mike Goodson NYJ New York Jets |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 56 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 93 | 428 | 2 | N/A | 46 | 345 | 2 | 24 |
|  |
| While coaches had always raved about his ability, Goodson had never seen much work until last season, when injuries to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart thrust him into action. Goodson even started three games, during which he totaled 400 yards and a touchdown. Goodson is a huge threat as a receiver and clearly has skills, but his fantasy potential is tied to opportunity, and right now, both Williams and Stewart are ahead of him on the depth chart.
|
|
| DeMarco Murray DAL Dallas Cowboys |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 57 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 91 | 410 | 2 | N/A | 22 | 231 | 2 | 24 |
|  |
| The Cowboys used their third-round pick to select Murray, who should immediately compete with Tashard Choice to back up Felix Jones. Murray ran an impressive 4.41 40 at the Combine, and his selection almost certainly ends Marion Barber's career in Dallas. Murray's collegiate stats didn't overwhelm at Oklahoma, but he could make an impact as a rookie if Felix Jones were to get hurt or show no improvement over his performance last season. The most likely outcome is a shared backfield in Dallas, and it may even become a three-headed monster, effectively ruining every back's fantasy value. |
|
| Stevan Ridley NE New England Patriots |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 58 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 74 | 377 | 4 | N/A | 4 | 31 | 0 | 24 |
| |
| While BenJarvus Green-Ellis has been serviceable, it's clear coach Bill Belichick wants more from his running backs, as he spent both a second- and third-round pick on the position, the latter being Ridley out of LSU. Ridley doesn't have a ton of speed, but he's a big back who should complement fellow rookie Shane Vereen well. Ridley can help on special teams immediately, and as the only other big back on New England's roster, he could compete with Green-Ellis for some early down and short-yardage work. Ridley's a sleeper, but the Patriots will most likely institute a running back by committee. |
|
| Thomas Jones |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 59 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 144 | 599 | 4 | N/A | 9 | 88 | 0 | 24 |
| |
| While it was somewhat impressive to see the 32-year-old Jones total 1,018 yards and score six touchdowns last year, he hurt the Chiefs while doing so. He averaged 2.8 YPC over the final nine games, and each time he touched the ball it meant Jamaal Charles didn't. Jones has accrued 2,525 career carries, and while he's still a plus blocker, he's even lost his usefulness at the goal line, as he converted just five of his 15 attempts last season. Only three running backs in NFL history have rushed for 1,000 yards at age 33 or older. Don't bet on Jones making it four.
|
|
| Chris Ivory NYJ New York Jets |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 60 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 101 | 514 | 4 | N/A | 3 | 31 | 0 | 24 |
| |
| Ivory impressed as an undrafted rookie, who was thrust into action unexpectedly, thanks to numerous injuries to New Orleans' backfield. He averaged 5.2 YPC on the year and scored five touchdowns over a three-game stretch. He offers nothing as a receiver, however, and should enter 2011 as the team's RB3 at best, with the addition of rookie Mark Ingram and the return of Pierre Thomas. Darren Sproles is in the mix as well. There's not a clear path for carries, but coach Sean Payton can be unpredictable, so Ivory shouldn't be completely overlooked.
|
|
| Toby Gerhart MIN Minnesota Vikings |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 61 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 92 | 397 | 3 | N/A | 14 | 107 | 0 | 18 |
| |
| Gerhart wasn't asked to do much during his rookie season playing behind Adrian Peterson, something unlikely to change barring injury. Gerhart looked adequate when used, gaining 4.0 YPC and showing some skills as a receiver. He'd presumptively be Minnesota's lead ballcarrier should Peterson go down, but it's hardly the ideal situation it was a couple of years back, as the Vikings' offensive line has taken a major step backward, and quarterback is a question mark.
|
|
| Justin Forsett JAC Jacksonville Jaguars |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 62 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 122 | 598 | 3 | N/A | 36 | 270 | 0 | 18 |
| |
| Forsett saw roughly the same number of touches in 2010 as he did in 2009, but his per-play production dropped. His YPC went from 5.4 to 4.4, and his yards per catch fell from 8.5 to 7.6. While Forsett looks impressive at times, it's clear his coaches don't consider him big enough to carry a full workload, so even if injuries strike Seattle's backfield, don't expect a huge uptick in carries for Forsett. |
|
| Ronnie Brown SD San Diego Chargers |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 63 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 122 | 572 | 3 | N/A | 18 | 140 | 0 | 18 |
| |
| Typically Brown has been either productive or hurt, but he was neither last season, as he played in 16 games for just the second time in his six-year career and finished with a career-low 3.7 YPC with only five touchdowns. For backs who played at least 500 snaps, only Jahvid Best had a lower YPC after contact than Brown's 2.1. Even 33-year-old Ricky Williams made Brown look sluggish by comparison. He could be the goal-line back in Philadelphia, but his role should be limited as the backup to LeSean McCoy. |
|
| Tashard Choice BUF Buffalo Bills |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 64 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 119 | 547 | 3 | N/A | 12 | 99 | 0 | 18 |
| |
| Choice's 2010 was similar to his 2009 season, though his YPC fell from 5.5 to 3.7. He's impressed at times when given the opportunity, but it's clear Dallas' coaching staff doesn't view him as more than a change-of-pace type. The team is likely to part ways with Marion Barber this offseason, but it drafted DeMarco Murray, and Felix Jones remains atop the depth chart as well, so Choice is once again in a timeshare.
|
|
| Chester Taylor |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 65 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 74 | 274 | 3 | N/A | 16 | 108 | 0 | 18 |
| |
| Taylor flat out looked old last year, and at age 31, it wasn't entirely unexpected. His YPC dropped for the third straight year, bottoming out at an anemic 2.4, which is simply unacceptable. Although he converted just three of nine goal-line attempts last season, he may retain that role in 2011 thanks to Matt Forte's epic struggles from in close, but Taylor should see no more than a handful of carries each game, and now Marion Barber is in the picture as well. As a 32-year-old who can no longer make defenders miss and playing behind one of the league's worst offensive lines, Taylor is about as unexciting of a pick one can make.
|
|
| Keiland Williams WAS Washington Redskins |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 66 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 22 | 91 | 1 | N/A | 22 | 201 | 2 | 18 |
| |
| After Ryan Torain took over as Washington's lead runner in the second half of last season, Williams became the team's third-down back, and he racked up 39 catches for 309 yards. The Redskins' running back situation is muddled, as Torain will be competing with rookies Roy Helu and Evan Royster for the starting job. Williams could also enter the mix, as there's no sure thing among the group. He should be a factor on passing downs regardless.
|
|
| Cadillac Williams |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 67 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 56 | 212 | 1 | N/A | 34 | 258 | 1 | 12 |
| |
| After matching a career-low with 3.5 YPC last year, Williams lost his starting job to rookie LeGarrette Blount. Too many knee surgeries have robbed Williams of any burst, and he hasn't even gotten 4.0 YPC since his rookie season in 2005. He did set career highs in receptions (46) and receiving yards (355) last season, as Williams settled into a third-down role. After signing with the Rams, the team hopes that swinging twice at injury prone role players (the other being Jerious Norwood) will net them a good backup to Steven Jackson. Williams has demonstrated more durability than Norwood in recent times, so he might be the favorite to earn a backup role.
|
|
| Ben Tate HOU Houston Texans |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 68 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 41 | 191 | 2 | N/A | 5 | 31 | 0 | 12 |
| |
| After Houston traded up in the second round to draft Tate (1,362 yards, 5.2 YPC and 10 touchdowns as a senior) he entered 2010 as the favorite to become the Texans' lead ball carrier. Instead, he missed the entire year after fracturing his fibula and tearing ankle ligaments in the preseason. Tate is big and strong and surprisingly ran a 4.43 40 at the Combine, which was the third fastest time recorded by a running back. Tate received full medical clearance in February and enters camp competing with Derrick Ward to back up Arian Foster. Houston's backfield has become the best environment in the NFL, so taking a flier on Tate could pay huge dividends if Foster were to go down with an injury. |
|
| Derrick Ward |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 69 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 44 | 242 | 2 | N/A | 7 | 63 | 0 | 12 |
| |
| Thanks in no small part to Houston's dominant run blocking, Ward got 6.3 YPC in limited action last season, but he's 31 and will have to battle Ben Tate to be the Texans' RB2. Tate is the favorite, but he's coming off major knee surgery, so Ward shouldn't be totally ignored. If Ward wins the backup job, he's a must own because he'll then be just one injury away from possessing serious fantasy value.
|
|
| Steve Slaton |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 70 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 44 | 211 | 1 | N/A | 21 | 145 | 1 | 12 |
| |
| Just two seasons ago, Slaton was one of the most productive backs in football, but that seems so long ago now. Even with presumptive starter Ben Tate going down with a season-ending injury in August, Slaton gave way to Arian Foster and was given just 19 carries last year. He's worth monitoring since we've seen him succeed before, and he's still young playing in a highly powerful offense that continuously produces big numbers from the running back position. But Slaton enters 2011 fourth on the team's depth chart. He's become something of an afterthought.
|
|
| Correll Buckhalter |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 71 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 47 | 212 | 1 | N/A | 20 | 171 | 1 | 12 |
| |
| Buckhalter played poorly last season when he averaged just 2.5 YPC, though he remained active as a receiver in limited work. He'll turn 33 this season, so the end is likely near, and Denver has already told him he won't be brought back. Even if/when he gets picked up elsewhere, he's a No. 2 at best.
|
|
| Alex Green GB Green Bay Packers |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 72 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 36 | 169 | 1 | N/A | 24 | 204 | 1 | 12 |
| |
| Green's staggering 8.2 YPC mark during his final year in college needs to be taken with a grain of salt since it came in Hawaii's spread offense, but he's an intriguing prospect nevertheless. It's thought Green Bay drafted him for third-down insurance with the likely departure of Brandon Jackson, as Ryan Grant and James Starks are clearly ahead of him on the depth chart for early down work. With Grant entering the final year of his contract, and Starks a pretty significant injury risk, Green is an intriguing name to remember in dynasty formats. |
|
| Jerome Harrison |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 73 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 97 | 494 | 2 | N/A | 15 | 86 | 0 | 12 |
| |
| Harrison entered 2010 looking like the favorite to take over lead back duties in Cleveland, but he ultimately watched Peyton Hillis run away with the job. Harrison was later swapped in a straight up trade for Mike Bell. His play improved after arriving in Philadelphia, but he's nothing more than LeSean McCoy's backup, assuming he even returns to the Eagles (which seems unlikely).
|
|
| Bilal Powell NYJ New York Jets |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 74 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 43 | 224 | 2 | N/A | 5 | 47 | 0 | 12 |
| |
| Powell ran for 1,405 yards and totaled 14 touchdowns during his senior year at Louisville last season, and the Jets snagged him with the No. 126 pick of the draft. He'll enter training camp battling Joe McKnight for the No. 3 RB role, but LaDainian Tomlinson is hardly a sure bet at this stage of his career, so Powell could conceivably become a factor on the team that has easily led the NFL in rushing attempts over the last two seasons.
|
|
| Brandon Jackson CLE Cleveland Browns |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 75 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 48 | 211 | 0 | N/A | 26 | 199 | 1 | 6 |
| |
| After Ryan Grant went down with a season-ending injury in Week 1, Jackson became waiver wire priority No. 1 in fantasy leagues, but those who burned their FAAB on him were left sorely disappointed. Jackson was never really given a full opportunity to be the team's workhorse, and while he blocked well and was excellent as a receiver, he averaged just 11.9 carries per game and remained in a timeshare despite Grant's absence. Grant is expected to return to health in 2011, and he'll be joined by James Starks and rookie Alex Green in the backfield. Jackson may be on the outside looking in.
|
|
| Javarris James ARZ Arizona Cardinals |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 76 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 16 | 66 | 1 | N/A | 1 | 8 | 0 | 6 |
| |
| The undrafted rookie emerged as somewhat of a goal line specialist after injuries struck Joseph Addai and Donald Brown last season. His role for 2011 is unclear and there's a chance he may not even be on the Colts' offseason roster, and an offseason marijuana possession incident won't help his job security.
|
|
| Jacquizz Rodgers ATL Atlanta Falcons |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 77 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 34 | 177 | 1 | N/A | 17 | 122 | 0 | 6 |
| |
| The Falcons traded up to draft Rodgers in hopes he can become what Jerious Norwood never could, a change of pace element to the bruising Michael Turner. Rodgers is an exciting back capable of breaking big plays, but he's also just 5-6, 196, so if Turner were to suffer an injury, expect Jason Snelling to take over as the lead ballcarrier. Rodgers should be productive when on the field, but expect his opportunities to be limited.
|
|
| Javon Ringer |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 78 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 57 | 244 | 1 | N/A | 8 | 54 | 0 | 6 |
| |
| Ringer averaged 4.7 YPC in limited work last season, but he needs to contribute more on special teams to secure his role on the roster. The Titans' backfield clearly belongs to Chris Johnson, but if he were to get hurt or have a prolonged holdout, Ringer looks likely to step in, putting him on the radar. Ringer has impressed when the ball has been in his hands throughout his brief career.
|
|
| Joe McKnight NYJ New York Jets |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 79 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 49 | 224 | 1 | N/A | 7 | 53 | 0 | 6 |
| |
| The Jets' addition of Bilal Powell means that McKnight will have some competition for looks behind Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson. McKnight wasn't a big fan of the pick, but that could well serve as motivation for him heading into the upcoming season, as he tries to solidify a complementary role behind Greene and Tomlinson. That said, he's probably at least two injuries away from fantasy relevance.
|
|
| Mike Hart |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 80 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 31 | 144 | 1 | N/A | 5 | 31 | 0 | 6 |
| |
| Still an unrestricted free agent, Hart figures to catch on elsewhere as a backup. The 2008 sixth-rounder had a standout college career at Michigan, but his three years with the Colts were marred by injuries. He played in seven games last season, recording 43 carries for 185 yards with a TD.
|
|
| Anthony Dixon SF San Francisco 49ers |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 81 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 38 | 175 | 1 | N/A | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| |
| Dixon split backup duties with Brian Westbrook last year, but when Frank Gore went down with a season-ending hip injury, the 31-year-old veteran outplayed him. Dixon got just 3.4 YPC, and his running style is best described as plodding. Westbrook isn't going to return to San Francisco, but the team drafted Kendall Hunter in the fourth round, and GM Trent Baalke has already declared him the No. 2 back, rendering Dixon nothing more than San Francisco's RB3.
|
|
| Leon Washington NE New England Patriots |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 82 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 41 | 201 | 1 | N/A | 15 | 126 | 0 | 6 |
| |
| Returning from a gruesome compound leg fracture, Washington received just 27 carries with his new team in Seattle last year, though he did post a 6.3 YPC mark, and he also returned three kickoffs for scores. Washington is typically viewed as a situational back, but it would be interesting to see what he could do with a bigger workload, especially one more year removed from his injury. It's not like Marshawn Lynch is anything special, and Justin Forsett is best used sparingly.
|
|
| Ricky Williams |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 83 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 82 | 353 | 1 | N/A | 7 | 62 | 0 | 6 |
| |
| Williams once again split carries with Ronnie Brown in Miami's backfield last season, resulting in modest production. After scoring 13 touchdowns in 2009, he hit paydirt just three times last year. He's now 34, and while he took a couple of years off in the middle of his career, he was worked awfully hard early on, and his 2,323 career rushing attempts are on the high side. It would be a mild surprise if Williams made it through the 2011 season without breaking down or becoming totally ineffective.
|
|
| Ryan Williams ARZ Arizona Cardinals |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 84 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 0 | 0 | 0 | N/A | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| |
| The Cardinals selected Williams early in the second round of the draft, ignoring many other seemingly more pressing needs. The team claims it had Williams rated as the No. 15 player on their board, and the value was too good to pass up, but it also clearly sends a message to incumbent Chris Wells, who had an injury-marred and disappointing second season. After rushing for 1,655 yards with 21 touchdowns in 2009, Williams ran for only 477 yards and nine scores last year, as he became a part of a rotation. He possesses plus vision with strong instincts and hands, but it remains to be seen if he's more the back who looked like a future star as a Virginia Tech freshman, or the one who disappointed last year. Don't be surprised if the pick motivates Wells, who shouldn't be written off yet if he can stay healthy. The coaching staff likely wants Williams to win the job, so he's the safer choice, but ultimately this probably ends up as a committee. |
|
| D.J. Ware |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 85 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 18 | 85 | 0 | N/A | 5 | 43 | 0 | 0 |
| |
| Rarely used, Ware has totaled just 35 rushing attempts over his three years in the league, but he possesses three-down capabilities and has averaged 4.6 YPC over his career. Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs are firmly ahead of him on the depth chart, but both have injury histories, and the Giants' system under Tom Coughlin is highly conducive to big rushing stats. It's not out of the realm of possibility that Ware makes an impact in 2011. He's a deep sleeper to keep in mind.
|
|
| LaRod Stephens-Howling PIT Pittsburgh Steelers |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 86 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 24 | 125 | 0 | N/A | 11 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
|  |
| With Beanie Wells, rookie Ryan Williams, and Stephens-Howling all vying for playing time, it's challenging to imagine Stephens-Howling carving out a significant piece of the ball-handling pie, and he's perhaps the least fantasy-worthy back on the Cards' roster. He is a strong special teams contributor, however, so he should make the team without problem.
|
|
| Mewelde Moore |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 87 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 34 | 177 | 0 | N/A | 24 | 197 | 0 | 0 |
| |
| Moore isn't much of a runner, but he did lead the Steelers in receptions out of the backfield, with 26 in 2010, and he's been brought back for the same role. This doesn't come as much of a surprise, as the Steelers were in need of a third-down back with only rookie Baron Batch in camp. But Moore's upside as a fantasy back is extremely limited.
|
|
| Evan Royster WAS Washington Redskins |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 88 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 18 | 74 | 0 | N/A | 4 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
| |
| Royster was a sixth-round pick, and there's no guarantee he even makes Washington's roster. But the Redskins have an unsettled running back situation, and he'd hardly be the first unknown to make a major impact in coach Mike Shanahan's system. Royster was a productive three-year starter in college with good size and patience, capable of effectively running inside. The Redskins' RB battle is one to watch. |
|
| Mikel Leshoure DET Detroit Lions |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 89 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 0 | 0 | 0 | N/A | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| |
| The Lions selected Leshoure with the 57th pick of the draft to complement Jahvid Best. At 6-0, 227, he'll be the thunder to Best's lightning. Having just turned 21, Leshoure is young, but he didn't fumble once over 424 career carries at Illinois. He ran for 1,697 yards and 17 touchdowns during his junior year last season and finished his collegiate career with a 6.0 YPC mark. The Lions' coaching staff is claiming Leshoure will be the team's "change-of-pace" back, not Best, but the latter has durability concerns and isn't likely to get more than 15-18 carries per game. Leshoure was the heavy favorite for goal-line work in an offense that could quickly become dangerous, but a torn Achilles tendon ended rookie season before it started.
|
|
| Rashad Jennings OAK Oakland Raiders |
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
| 90 |  |
| | ATT | YDS | RTD | YPC | REC | YDS | RECTD | PTS |
| 2013 Projected | 0 | 0 | 0 | N/A | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| |
| Jennings played well down the stretch last season, finishing with an impressive 5.5 YPC mark, though fantasy owners will most remember him flopping in a favorable matchup at home against the Redskins in Week 16, when he started for an injured Maurice Jones-Drew only to gain 32 yards on 15 carries. Nevertheless, Jennings established himself as Jacksonville's No. 2 running back, so he's a safety net for MJD owners and would immediately have fantasy relevance if an injury were to strike. He's got talent, and the Jaguars' offensive line has quietly developed into one of the best in the NFL. However, late in camp he went on IR with a knee injury. |
|
.
