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Fantasy Mastermind Moment Time to sell high on these stock market busters
By Michael Nazarek, Special to CNNSI.com A few weeks ago, I discussed a list of players not performing up to par. They were established players such as Daunte Culpepper, Eddie George and Terrell Owens. They weren't helping their fantasy owners, but things sure have changed. Now, their stock is high again. If you didn't get them in trade at that time, it will certainly cost you a bundle to get them now. This week, let's take a look at some players that have been over-performing to date. I like to call these players Stock Market Busters. Their fantasy stock is sky high right now, but that won't always be the case. No, siree. They are due for a fall, much like our country's market has taken a hit over the past month. If you own one or more of the following players, I suggest moving them while the gettin's good. Otherwise, you might be stuck with a fantasy disappointment come playoff time. Ding! Did you hear that bell? The market is open for business. Let's see who looks good today…
The Market Busters1. QB Brad Johnson, TB: Until last week, Johnson had failed to throw even one score in 2001. That all changed at Tennessee, as he piles up 287 passing yards with three scores. This week, an overrated Steelers team comes town, and Johnson is primed to toss another three scores. Ahh… nope. Won't happen. Move him now before a healthy Warrick Dunn scores all the TDs on the ground. 2. QB Charlie Batch, DET: Batch is back! He brought the thrill of actual offensive production with him last week at Minnesota when he threw for 345 yards and three scores! He's a lock to produce each and every week. Nope, sorry, that's a pipe dream. Batch may be better than Ty Detmer, but he's certainly no Daunte Culpepper either. We must remember that the Vikings defense is one of the worst in the league. Yes, Batch will have some good games here and there, but he won't come close to this kind of production again, with maybe the exception of the Dec. 16 second game against the Vikings. Sell him while he's hot. 3. RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD: Good heavens, am I nuts? All Tomlinson has done is practically lead the league in fantasy points from a tailback. The reason he's on this list is the fact that he won't be able to keep up this torrid pace. In fact, he's already showing signs of weakening, as he managed only 74 rushing yards at New England last week. But make no mistake, Tomlinson is clearly considered a stud RB by most in today's game. Selling him takes guts, but if you can get three good fantasy starters in return to strengthen your team and fill a void, you should consider taking the deal. Remember, this kid has no track record. The Chargers are struggling a bit, having lost two in a row. If the losing continues, don't expect Tomlinson to get too many 30-plus carry games again this season. This might be the ultimate in selling high. 4. RB Ricky Williams, NO: Oh, boy. I can just hear the whining from loyal Saints fans now. Trade Ricky? Never! Hold on just one minute. Williams has yet to prove he can produce and remain healthy for an entire season. Yes, he's playing extremely well right now, but that little injury bug is just aching to surface. Williams already has a sore shoulder, and while it hasn't hampered his play, the pounding he takes each week can't be good. Ride him if you want, but if an opportunity arose to trade him for a back like Curtis Martin, I wouldn't look a gift horse in the mouth. 5. RB Priest Holmes, KC: My Bust of the Year has played pretty well up to this point. Of course, Holmes has a history of producing big games against the Steelers and other poor teams like the Redskins. Put him up against a solid run defense like the Giants, and he wilts under pressure. Holmes rushed for 150 yards and two scores last week against Pittsburgh. This week, he faces another soft defense at Arizona but will also share carries once again with Tony Richardson, who is returning from a shoulder injury. Maybe you can get one more good performance from him. Then again, why wait? Selling him now after such a big game may be the best move you can make! 6. WR Terry Glenn, NE: The ultimate impact player … for one game that is. Glenn returned last week to save the day for Tom Brady and the Patriots. He caught seven passes for 110 yards and a score. What do you do? TRADE HIM. We all know the injury history here. "She" has never been able to avoid the injury bug. Guess what? "She" hurt her hammy in practice yesterday. Do yourself a favor and dump Glenn for what you can get and move on. 7. WR Eddie Kennison, DEN: Ed McCaffrey goes down and everyone points to Kennison to fill the void. He catches three short passes in three games before "blowing up" for six catches and 84 yards and a score last week. He's become the receiver the Broncos always wanted. Yeah, right. Dump him now in trade before he goes back to his old ways. Talk about your wolf in sheep's clothing. 8. WR Antonio Freeman, GB: Throw me the football, Mr. Favre. Yes, sir, Antonio. Here it comes. After floundering for most of the season, Freeman finally performed the way the Packers are paying him to perform. Of course, most of Freeman's 138 yards and his TD came after Bill Schroeder went down with an ankle injury. Still, I think Freeman will have some good days and some poor days the rest of the season. The thing to remember here is that it's highly unlikely he'll have another big game like that one. Use the fact he did it against the Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens and move him while his stock is busting the market. 9. WR Joe Jurevicius, NYG: I give Jurevicius credit for stepping up to fill the void left by injured WR Ike Hilliard. However, with Hilliard's score last week, the tide appears to be turning in his direction. Don't be surprised if Hilliard gets the start instead of Jurevicius, if not this week, maybe next. Bottom Line: With his first career 100-yard game last week, Jurevicius' value is at it's highest. Moving him in a package deal to get a STUD RB would be a very wise move. 10. TE Shannon Sharpe, BAL: Although Sharpe hasn't been scoring, he's been catching plenty of passes each week. Unfortunately, rookie TE Todd Heap is about to make his comeback from a nasty high ankle sprain. In Week 1, Heap actually out-produced Sharpe five catches to four. If Heap can stay healthy, the rest of the season may quickly become a formal changing of the guard. Move Sharpe while he's still viewed as a top-five fantasy TE. There's no doubt the above list of players has produced for fantasy owners, if not in every game this season, then certainly they came through last week. Analyze you fantasy roster closely. Are there any players who appear to have over-achieved? If the answer is yes, and you aren't 5-0, then maybe it's time to make the fantasy production work for you down the road in trade instead of wasting it on your bench. Sometimes the worst thing owners can do is stand pat. What good is Eddie Kennison to you if he's your No. 5 WR? Use that production and work a deal to trade him. You'll be glad you did.
Looking aheadThis week's high-scoring affair can be found in the Metrodome when the Green Bay Packers visit the Minnesota Vikings. Do yourself a favor and start as many players on both teams as you can this week. Brett Favre should have no trouble throwing for three-plus scores, while Ahman Green will run all over the Vikings. Heck, even Dorsey Levens may score in this one. For the Vikings, Daunte Culpepper remains a must play, even against a surprisingly solid Packers defense. Michael Bennett will sit this one out due to injury, but backup Doug Chapman may be worth a look. As for Randy Moss, yes, his ankle is sore, but Moss has had the biggest games of his career against the Packers. Now is not the time to sit him. Cris Carter? All he does is catch touchdowns. Another game that should produce some nice fantasy points is St. Louis at New York. The Jets defense can't stop anyone, meaning you start all your Rams. Marshall Faulk likely won't play, but backup RB Trung Canidate will step into his shoes and run like the wind. Look for Canidate to top the 100 total-yard mark and score. Isaac Bruce is due for a score too. For the Jets, Curtis Martin will get his usual 100-plus rushing yards and a score or two. Vinny Testaverde will have to pass for the Jets to win, which makes WR Laveranues Coles a great play. WR Wayne Chrebet will start, although he's coming off a slight concussion against Miami. Watch him closely. If he plays the entire game and doesn't produce, it's a sure sign it’s time to bench him. The Philadelphia Eagles are a solid team for fantasy owners to utilize, but you might want to avoid starting many (or all) of them this week. Why? It's Giants week. The New York Giants have simply owned the Eagles, winning the past nine consecutive games. Donovan McNabb has had more than his fair share of troubles against them. Duce Staley is coming off a shoulder injury and will share time. The Giants secondary did a very good job of holding the vaunted Rams receiving corps in check last week. Look for them to do it again to wideouts Todd Pinkston and James Thrash. I often tend to overlook streaks, but with the Jets beating Miami for the seventh time is a row last week, until the Eagles produce against the Giants, I downgrade their value this week.
Deep Sleeper of the WeekTime to move on to the Deep Sleeper of the Week. Three weeks ago, Miami Dolphins rookie WR Chris Chambers got the call, and while he failed to score, he did manage four catches for 59 yards. This week, let's go with … RB Reggie Wayne, IND: This kid got a lot of hype this summer, but he's yet to make an impact. What better time for him to step up and score his first career TD then when WRs Jerome Pathon (foot) and WR Terrence Wilkins (rib) are out with injuries? The Colts desperately need a second receiver to take the pressure off Marvin Harrison, and this is Wayne's big chance. In closing, I'd like to touch upon a topic that comes up every time there's a Thursday night game. Many fantasy leagues have a rule about what I call "short weeks." These leagues make their team owners turn in their complete lineups before the Thursday night game. While it may be nice for convenience sake, I believe this is a terrible rule. Why? Every NFL team but two continues to practice and make lineup changes depending on injuries and such for the rest of the week in preparation for Sunday games. For example, heading into today, there was a still a chance that Faulk (knee) would play? Do you start him or not? What if you own both Faulk and Canidate? I think you get my point. Bottom Line: Owners should only be required to turn in any players they wish to start on Thursday before Thursday night. The balance of their lineup should not be due until later that weekend. Personally, I recommend a Sunday deadline five minutes before game-time. Although the object in fantasy football is to win, I'd much rather accomplish my goal against my opponent with both teams at full strength. After all, how can you brag about beating a team that wasn't at his best? See you next time! Michael Nazarek is the Fantasy Football Mastermind, and has more than a dozen years of fantasy related experience. His company offers an NFL draft kit, preseason draft guide, a weekly newsletter, and free fantasy news (updated daily) at its web site. For more information go to http://www.ffmastermind.com or call 256-851-1749.
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