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Back Page Learning from past predictionsPosted: Friday November 23, 2001 2:17 PM
By Bob Harris, Special to CNNSI.com One of the skills a successful Fantasy Football owner relies on heavily is the ability to judge talent. OK, so, it’s probably more of a knack than a skill. And yes, luck is definitely involved. In fact, you’ll often find that going with the right hunch at the right time is the only thing separating the genius from the goat. As I was kicking around ideas for this week's column, I looked back at some of my past work and decided to break out some of my preseason personnel predictions -- both good and bad -- with the hope that you'll be able to learn from my successes -- and failures. I've included a handful of examples and provided my prediction (and the date it was made) along with each player's current status and what led me to make the prediction I did.
Hits
Travis Henry, RB, Buffalo Bills Why Henry? For starters, I like his running style. Henry hits the hole quickly and runs close to the ground. That low center of gravity, his powerful lower body and remarkable sense of balance often allow him to turn a 2-yard run into a 5-yard gain and 5-yarders into eight. I was also impressed with the way he overcame a perceived lack of speed by posting a blistering 4.35-second 40 in front of God and everybody in Indianapolis while many of his "faster" contemporaries chose not to run for time at the scouting combine. In fact, it's hard not to like a guy who ran with determination and consistency that ultimately allowed Henry to leave Tennessee as the school's all-time leading rusher. Current Status: Currently Buffalo's starting running back. The Tip-off: "The only true halfback on a roster loaded to the gills with glorified fullbacks." That sentence says it all.
Anthony Thomas, RB, Chicago Bears "If you think you're beaten you are; If you dare not, you don't." Sure you do. Now, do you remember the line that assures us? "Life's battles don't always go to the stronger and faster man." Well. ... I've got bad news for all the James Allen fans out there: When it comes to NFL running backs, the stronger and faster men tend to thrive while the smaller, slower men have a tendency to fall by wayside. And even though Allen became the first Chicago running back to gain more than 1,00 yards in a single season since Neal Anderson picked up 1,275 yards in 1989, the former Oklahoma star simply doesn't have the breakaway speed necessary to excel in this league. The 5-10, 215-pound Allen's longest run from scrimmage this year was 29 yards and he only managed to put the ball in the end zone twice on 290 carries. This explains the second-round selection of Anthony Thomas, a bruising 230-pound workhorse out of Michigan, who scored 55 touchdowns during his career as a Wolverine. Thomas has surprising burst for a big man, and I'll be surprised if he doesn't overtake Allen and move into the starting in fairly short order. ... Even if Allen manages to hold onto the starting job early on, the Bears will line up in two-back sets often enough for Thomas to get the touches necessary to progress. ... Coaches are certain to call on the rookie to haul the rock in goal line and short-yardage situations. Current Status: Thomas leads the Bears with 638 yards and four touchdowns; Allen has 243 yards. Thomas has averaged 25 carries per game over the last five weeks while Allen has averaged two. The Tip-off: Sir Isaac Newton's Laws of Motion; specifically his second and third laws (the Law of Force and Acceleration and the Law of Action and Reaction). We're talking time-tested theories here -- immutable laws. It's hard to screw 'em up. Predicting that Thomas would beat out Allen was simply a matter of applying the appropriate formula. In this case: F=ma where F = net force; m = mass of the object; and a = the acceleration of the object.
Antowain Smith, RB, New England Patriots A big back at 6-2 and 228 pounds, Smith started 28 of the 57 games he appeared in during his four seasons with Buffalo where he rushed for 2,932 yards and 26 touchdowns. The Pats won't hand him the starting job, but Smith will get every opportunity to earn it in camp this summer. And a change of scenery -- not to mention a new coaching staff -- might be all Smith needs to emerge as the kind of back New England has been looking for since losing Robert Edwards two years ago. Current Status: Smith has indeed emerged as the Patriots feature back. The Tip-off: J.R. Redmond sucks.
Jimmy Smith, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars A realistic assessment? Smith was almost back up to his playing weight of 208 pounds when he met with reporters on June 13. The veteran noted that he's working hard and he insisted, "I'm going to be ready. It's hard to pinpoint percentage-wise, but I'm lifting and I'm running." Bottom line? Smith has a long history of overcoming adversity; he's pulled in more receptions and racked up more receiving yards than any other receiver in the league over the last five seasons. I ain’t betting against him. Current Status: Kicking tail and taking names. The Tip-off: The final paragraph of the original prediction says it all.
Rod Gardner, WR, Washington Redskins "A lot of DBs come out there, 'Hey, I want to press you,'" Gardner explained recently. "And you smack them in the mouth and let them know what's happening. It gives you that edge, that added advantage you can use on the field. If you've got a whole bag of tools, you can build a lot of stuff. But if you've got one tool, I don't think you can build too much with it." One of the "tools" in Gardner's "bag" is tremendous strength. We're talking a guy who bench-presses more than 400 pounds. That kind of upper-body strength should definitely come in handy when he starts smacking NFL cornerbacks in the mouth. "I didn't lift too much in high school, but once I got to Clemson, that's all we used to do," Gardner said. "And once you hit that 315[-pound] plateau, you feel good about yourself. You've got those three [45-pound] plates on each side. I just kept going up from there. I didn't compete against any receivers -- there was nobody on my level. [But] them D-linemen, linebackers, we were going in there battling every day." The fact that Gardner views his strength as an "ability," no different than his ability to run fast and make sharp cuts, gives him quite an edge over the average rookie receiver, who tends to have a hard time getting off the line of scrimmage. I'm not saying Gardner is a lock to come out and beat the living kapok out of every cornerback he faces, but I guarantee you he'll give all of them a run for their money at the line of scrimmage. Current Status: Currently leads all NFL rookies in receptions (27), receiving yards (474) and touchdown catches (three). The Tip-off: Most rookie receivers aren't ready for the intensely physical play the encounter upon turning pro. That wasn't the case with Gardner, who not only understands the "game" within the game, he has the strength and aggressive nature that's well suited to playing that game.
Ben Gay, RB, Cleveland Browns But he'll learn to block -- if he sticks around long enough. Asked if Gay should be considered a legitimate prospect, Cleveland director of football operations Dwight Clark said: "We had several teams inquiring if he would make the team and if we'd trade him, and we're not. He keeps showing big-time ability. He's big and fast, elusive, powerful and has excellent vision. You watch him, and you cross your fingers that you've really got something. "But he's rusty, and my gut feeling is it's going to take a year, another training camp, before he has a coming-out year." I'm looking for Gay to start getting significant playing time in November before claiming the starting job in December. Does that make him a first-round pick? Don't buy him unless the price is right. Current Status: Received first significant playing time in regular offense (18 carries for 56 yards with one TD) last weekend (Nov. 18), and appears to be well on the way to making me look like Miss Cleo. The Tip-off: A simple case of deductive reasoning: Which of the team's running backs has the overall speed, strength, power, burst and vision to excel while running behind the Browns' less-than-imposing offensive line? James Jackson is solid, but ordinary. Jamel White has the speed, but lacks the strength and power. Gay has all the requisite skills. So why hasn't he been the starter since day one? Pass blocking. I figured it would take him between five and six months to get a solid handle on the team's protection schemes and "The Legend" delivered.
MissesWhile those examples provide some insight into the thought process behind successfully assessing (or guessing at) potential talent or predicting eventual starters or scrubs as the case might be, I think you can learn just as much from some of my failures at those same tasks.
Tai Streets, WR, San Francisco 49ers On the other hand, Streets has done nothing but turn heads despite the limited time he's spent on the playing field. If you ask me, the former Wolverine brings the Niners many of the positive attributes missing from Stokes' game: breakaway speed, sure hands and heart. Sure, Stokes has a three-inch height advantage, but it wasn't enough to keep a healthy Streets from pushing for the No. 3 spot last year. The bottom line? I suppose there's a chance Stokes will step up and emerge as a consistent threat now that Jerry Rice is out of the picture, but if a healthy Streets continues to provide the Niners with a more dangerous downfield threat, it's only a matter of time before he moves into the starting lineup opposite Terrell Owens. Current Status: Streets, who currently has 19 catches for 246 yards this season, has obviously fallen short of my expectations and he is firmly locked into the No. 3 spot behind Stokes. Where I Went Wrong: I obviously let my personal dislike for Stokes -- not to mention my longstanding belief that he's the biggest wussy this side of the Pecos -- cloud my judgment. I intend to step back and make a concerted effort to be more dispassionate in cases like this in the future.
David Sloan, TE, Detroit Lions Current Status: Sure, his four TD catches leave him tied for third among all the league's tight ends in that category; but I was looking for the enormous (6-6, 260-pound) Sloan to take advantage of that size -- along with his above average speed -- to emerge as a legitimate deep threat down the middle of the field. Something along the lines of Marcus Pollard -- except bigger and faster. Where I Went Wrong: I guess those laws of physics aren't as immutable as I thought.
Marcellus Rivers, TE, New York Giants Better yet, the youngster has been seeing extensive action when the Giants have worked on their red zone offense this summer and Kerry Collins targeted him twice in goal line situations last Thursday; Rivers turned one of the opportunities into a touchdown. Do yourself a favor and follow this kid closely. Current Status: Yeah sure; and Rivers is probably still the best tight end you've still never heard of. In fact, he might be the best tight end Giants' offensive coordinator Sean Peyton never heard of, too. So far this season, Rivers has one catch for one yard and one touchdown. Where I Went Wrong: A classic example of getting caught up in preseason hype and losing sight of the fact everybody gets a turn during training camp.
Priest Holmes, RB, Kansas City Chiefs The Chiefs' rushing attack has been a disappointment this summer. It was spotty at best during preseason play, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry. However, coaches were encouraged by their work in short-yardage situations as Richardson converted a number of third downs. They were also pleased by the fact the offense finally punched it in twice near the goal line in the preseason finale against the Rams -- their only rushing touchdowns of the preseason. The week before they failed to put it in the end zone on a pair of attempts from the 1-yard line in the final moments against Jacksonville. The bottom line in K.C. says Priest Holmes is locked in as the starting halfback, but Richardson, who was responsible for that touchdown run against the Rams, looks like the better Fantasy prospect -- or the main cog in the committee, if you will. Current Status: Holmes has been almost unstoppable this year. The former Raven currently ranks seventh in the league with 782 yards rushing this year and he's added another 210 yards on 29 receptions and scored six touchdowns (five rushing, one receiving). In the meantime, my guy Richardson has missed two full games with a shoulder injury and he's only racked up 347 yards from scrimmage and worse yet, only scored four touchdowns. Where I Went Wrong: I'm still not sure. But the fact that Holmes was the very last free agent running back signed last offseason tells me at least 30 NFL general managers are asking themselves the same question. In the end, I'll advise you not to get too excited about your triumphs or too upset about your failures. And I'll also remind you that there's very little difference between a wizards hat and a dunce cap. Just ask Bobby Beathard if you don't believe me. Bob Harris is Editor and Webmaster of the TFL Report and Senior Editor for Fantasy Sports Publications.
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