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Finding safety in numbers -- and numbers don't lie
Posted: Friday December 14, 2001 1:01 PM
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Wayne Chrebet finally recorded his first TD of the year in Week 13. Nick Wass/Allsport |
By Bob Harris, Special to CNNSI.com
In his 1924 autobiography, Mark Twain quoted the great British statesman Benjamin Disraeli as saying, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."
At the risk of impugning the dignity of a couple dead guys who obviously never enjoyed the simple pleasure of owning a Fantasy football team, that statement is pure poppycock.
As any red-blooded aficionado will certainly tell you, statistics are to Fantasy football what a flaky crust is to mom’s apple pie. Numbers are the lifeblood of the game; they're what make us tick. In fact, if there's one thing I've learned during my 40 years on "God's Green Earth," it's this:
There's safety in numbers; and numbers don't lie.
And I whole-heartedly disagree with yet another dead guy -- famed essayist, poet and philosopher Ralph Waldo Emerson -- who once contended that statistics don't tell good stories, nor do they honor the place of whim in the universe. Emerson further lamented that stats render the world uninteresting.
Puhleeeeeze!
You want stories? You want to honor the place of whim in the universe? Just try some of these stats on for size:
Jaguars wide receiver Jimmy Smith has become only the fifth player in league history to have 1,000 yards receiving in six consecutive seasons. Cris Carter and Tim Brown had streaks of eight consecutive entering this season. Smith is currently on pace to finish the 2001 season with 116 receptions for 1,447 yards.
Pittsburgh wide receiver Hines Wards needs six receptions to tie the club record of 85 set by Yancey Thigpen in 1985.
Eagles rookie running back Correll Buckhalter has seven touches in three games since he was suspended one game after being in a car where police noticed marijuana smoke. Asked if Buckhalter's virtual disappearance from the offense the last three weeks was coincidental to the marijuana incident, coach Andy Reid offered the following one-word response: "No. ..."
Fellow Eagle Brian Mitchell needs 32 yards to join the elite company of Walter Payton (21,803) and Jerry Rice (20,674) as the only players to reach 20,000 career all-purpose yards.
In his third NFL season, Cleveland QB Tim Couch has only one 300-yard passing game in his career. The former first-round draft pick has only topped 200 yards passing only four times this season.
Cincinnati QB Jon Kitna pointed out that the Bengal offense commits 8-10 unforced errors a game. What a surprise! The Bengals have also lost five games in a row. Why? Because they've scored only 43 points during that five-game slide slump and have the fewest points overall in the NFL with 163. .By the way, Corey Dillon hasn't run for 100 yards in any of the last five games, and Kitna threw two touchdown passes and seven interceptions during that span.
In October 1999, Florida State teammates Peter Warrick and Laveranues Coles were busted for getting over on a local department store to the tune of about $400. Warrick -- a Heisman Trophy hopeful -- was suspended indefinitely. Coles -- already on probation for past legal and academic problems -- was handed an apple and a road map.
Fast forward to December of 2001 and it appears the worm has turned. Coles is a top-flight NFL receiver, the Jets' best big-play weapon, who leads his team with 41 receptions, a 14.2-yard average and six TDs. Warrick, by comparison, has 51 catches -- but only one TD and a mundane 9.6-yard average.
Chris Weinke ranks last in the NFC in passer rating and plays for a team that has lost 12 consecutive games. He has thrown nine touchdown passes and 15 interceptions for the Carolina Panthers, who’s past four defeats are by a combined 11 points. So why is this guy smiling? It's simple! By playing 35 percent of the Panthers' offensive snaps and throwing for more than 1,601 yards, Weinke triggered a clause in his original five-year deal that calls for a $2.5 million roster bonus payable in 2003. Throw in handful of escalators and various other goodies and what started out as a $4.784 million deal is now worth $7.284 million! If the Panthers and Weinke improve and he achieves other incentives, he could earn nearly $20 million.
No NFC East team is averaging 30 minutes of possession time. The Giants, who average 29:52 of possession time weekly, lead the division.
The Chicago Bears keep insisting they take their shots downfield, but quarterback Jim Miller's average gain per pass play is 5.67 yards is the lowest among ranked passers.
Guess what Bucs receiver Keyshawn Johnson, who boasts a league-high 93 receptions this season, and his favorite whipping boy, Jets wideout Wayne Chrebet have in common? They both put the ball in the end zone for the first time this season last Sunday.
Green Bay quarterback Brett Favre and receiver Antonio Freeman have connected for 57 career touchdowns, making them the fifth-most productive passer-receiver duo in NFL history. Next target: John Unitas-Raymond Berry (63). Steve Young and Rice are the all-time leaders (85).
Seattle wide out Darrell Jackson continues to emerge in his second NFL season. He posted his fourth 100-yard game of the season last Sunday at Denver, and he has become a legitimate big-play threat -- especially on third-down. The third-round draft choice from Florida has pulled in 19 passes for 371 yards on third downs, good for a 19.5-yard average. Only 10 NFL players have more third-down receptions than Jackson.
Ironically enough, Jackson's batterymate, Matt Hasselbeck, isn't likely to be mistaken for a clutch passer this year. In fact, the former Packers backup has yet to throw a TD pass in the fourth quarter this season. His fourth-quarter passer rating of 54.4 is third-worst among AFC starters, ahead of only Buffalo's Alex Van Pelt (52.9) and Denver's Brian Griese (48.4). The Seahawks have been outscored in all but the first quarters of games this season.
Packer tight end Bubba Franks has seven touchdown catches this season -- none of them has gone for more than one yard.
If nothing else, San Francisco's wide receivers -- Terrell Owens (6-3), J.J. Stokes (6-4) and Tai Streets (6-2) -- head into Sunday's game against the Dolphins with a nice height advantage. Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain, who both stand 5-11, are Miami's tallest defenders.
Kansas City tight end Tony Gonzalez has just one game with at least 100 yards receiving this season (eight receptions, 129 yards) and it came against this week's opponent -- the Broncos -- back on Oct. 7.
The Jets have scored just two touchdowns in their last 25 possessions.
In his last six games, including three against defenses ranked in the top 10, Tennessee signal caller Steve McNair has racked up a passer rating of 103.2 while completing 66.5 percent of passes for 1,549 yards with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions.
Teammate Eddie George, on the other hand, is mired in the worst slump of his career. The former Ohio State star has yet to top 100 yards rushing in a game this season, a 13-game skid that stretches back to last Dec. 17 when he had 176 against Cleveland. So far this year, George has carried the ball 242 times for 710 yards. The resulting 2.9-yard per carry average is the lowest of his career.
By becoming the San Diego Chargers' first 1,000-yard rusher since Natrone Means in 1994, rookie LaDainian Tomlinson increased the value of his six-year contract by $16.25 million. Hitting the 1,000-yard plateau kicked in escalator clauses for the final 3 years of the pact that pushed the deal's worth to $32 million ($5.33 million a year). And it can still increase by another $1 million a year with other incentives. Yet even with the escalators reached, there's the usual catch: Tomlinson's new salaries of $5.5 million in 2004 and 2005 and $6.5 million in 2006 are not guaranteed.
So far this season, Oakland QB Rich Gannon leads the AFC with 254-for-384 (66.1percent) passing for 2,821 yards with 22 touchdowns and five interceptions. His 101.5 passer rating is by far the best in the NFL. Kurt Warner is the NFC's top-ranked passer, completing 286-of-431 passes (66.4 percent) for 3,636 yards with 24 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.
During his eight-game stint as a starter this season, Buffalo QB Rob Johnson was clearly having difficulty grasping the team's new West Coast offense. Although he completed 62 percent of his passes, Johnson threw seven interceptions and only five touchdowns and his frightening indecisiveness in the pocket was a major reason he was sacked 31 times. His replacement, Alex Van Pelt -- in four starts and one extensive appearance in relief of Johnson -- has thrown for 1,425 yards (40 fewer than Johnson) with 10 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Better yet, Van Pelt has only been sacked 11 times while completing 60 percent of his passes.
One other thing. Johnson has one year left on a contract that represents an $11.2 million hit against Buffalo's 2002 salary cap.
And for Emerson's contention. If the fact that Kansas City Chiefs halfback Priest Holmes has amassed 643 yards from scrimmage over the past three games -- the most over a three-game span during an NFL season since Walter Payton had 746 yards during a stretch in November of 1977 -- doesn't honor the place of whim in the universe, I don't know what does.
Bob Harris is Editor and Webmaster of the TFL Report and Senior Editor for Fantasy Sports Publications
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