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Fantasy File
Few immediate prospects among 2003 draft class
Posted: Sunday April 27, 2003 11:12 AM
Carson Palmer may not get many chances to play in 2003. |
By James Quintong, SI.com
If you were hoping the NFL Draft would provide an influx of useful fantasy players for 2003, you probably came away disappointed. There wasn't a ton of fantasy position players taken in the early rounds, and most taken probably won't be expected to start right off the bat. However, those in keeper and dynasty leagues, as well as some very deep leagues, should be in good shape in building for the future.
Surprisingly, the players with the chance for an immediate impact are wide receivers, who usually struggle as rookies as they get used to the more complicated NFL passing game. Detroit's Charles Rogers and Houston's Andre Johnson, taken with the second and third picks in the draft, will likely be the No. 1 targets for their young stud quarterbacks (Joey Harrington and David Carr). Both have game-breaking ability and both have quality quarterbacks throwing it their way. At the same time, it's hard to rank them much higher than a No. 3 or 4 wide receiver on a team.
Arizona has two potential starting receivers from their first two rounds in the draft in Bryant Johnson and Anquan Boldin. Johnson will likely do a lot of return duty, and he has the size and speed to be a No. 1 guy. However, I think Boldin, who was a very productive receiver at Florida State, could emerge as a fantasy force earlier given his pedigree. Still, it's hard to get really excited about either of them when Jeff Blake is your quarterback.
Speaking of quarterbacks, you probably want to avoid all of the signal-callers if you're in a one-year league. Keeper leagues, on the other hand, you've got plenty to choose from. A number of teams are likely learning from how the Jets Chad handledPennington in grooming quarterbacks for the future. Despite the impatience of many to have players produce immediately, there is something to be said for holding on to quarterbacks and let them develop. All of those stories of the low-round draft picks emerging as stars (Tom Brady, Brad Johnson, Kurt Warner, Aaron Brooks, etc.) all had that luxury of not being thrown to the wolves in their first year, but rather learning on the bench. Other QBs like Donovan McNabb, Steve McNair, Daunte Culpepper and Michael Vick waited at least a year after the draft before making a real impact.
Carson Palmer had one great year after three mediocre ones at USC, but he'll have time to get accustomed to the NFL behind Jon Kitna, who was surprisingly sharp toward the end of last season. He also has a ton of targets available (including third-round pick Kelley Washington, who could be a star in two or three years as he recovers from a neck injury). He's got a bright future, but it's probably 2004 or 2005.
The same goes for Byron Leftwich, who is being groomed as Mark Brunell's successor. It could be 2004 or 2005 before he has any impact in the league as well. However, unlike Palmer, Leftwich doesn't have an impressive receiving corps to help him out. Sure, there's Jimmy Smith, but how long will he last? And unlike McNabb, Leftwich probably needs at least some marginally talented receivers to make any sort of impact.
Rex Grossman had an iffy senior year (by his standards) and the track record for recent Florida quarterbacks hasn't been the greatest. However, he could be a reasonably productive QB in a couple of years in Chicago. He could make some appearances this season, depending on how Kordell Stewart lives up to the hype. The Bears aren't really committed to Slash, signing him only to a two-year deal, but he does give the team a chance to keep that slot warm for Grossman. He may be worth watching as a very late pick in very deep drafts.
Kyle Boller was highly recruited out of high school, then struggled before his senior year, and then rose up the draft charts thanks to some great workouts. I'm not totally convinced he'll be an NFL star, but he'll have his chance in Baltimore where he's going up against Chris Redman. He has a good shot of starting, but the receivers currently on the roster don't give me a lot of confidence that he'll produce. Still, if Boller wins the starting job, he may be a No. 3 fantasy QB if you're a gambling type.
Running back is the position where you can get the most production right away. However, there aren't a lot of those screaming out in the early rounds. I'm curious as to why Buffalo took Willis McGahee after Travis Henry broke through with a huge season in just his second year in the league (and picked up Olandis Gary as a backup). McGahee could be a great fantasy player down the line; the question is where.
Larry Johnson's fantasy value hinges directly on Priest Holmes' health. If Holmes is healthy, Johnson is a nice late-round backup pick. If Holmes' hip doesn't hold up, Johnson could be a high pick. He is a hard runner who can also catch the ball a lot – very much like Holmes. He is a nice fit for the offense, but his playing time is a giant question mark.
Tight ends also usually don't make a lot of impact right off the bat, although Jeremy Shockey and Randy McMichael proved otherwise last year. Dallas Clark, Jason Witten and L.J. Smith all could be moderately productive in 2003, although don't go taking any of them with a high pick. Clark will likely fill Ken Dilger's role in the Colts' offense that likes using two tight-end sets. Marcus Pollard will still get the bulk of the catches. Smith makes for a decent No. 2 tight end opposite Chad Lewis in Philadelphia, and that role often steals a handful of touchdowns. Witten can be the starting TE in Dallas, although it may not mean much depending on who is starting at quarterback.
One very curious player is Teyo Johnson, a huge, physical wide receiver who could be a tight end or H-back in Oakland. He may end up being more of a blocker opposite Doug Jolley, in which case his fantasy value drops. He could also be a great red-zone receiver, which perks up his value. He could also line up opposite Jerry Porter in a few years, providing a couple of physical freak targets for Rich Gannon, Marques Tuiasasopo or whoever else ends up as the Raiders quarterback.
Receivers like Taylor Jacobs (Washington), Tyrone Calico (Tennessee) and Bethel Johnson (New England) are real crap shoots. They all fill needs for their teams, but none look to be counted upon as real go-to guys right away. They may surprise for a game or two, but they're not worth your time right now.
The same goes for Musa Smith and Justin Fargas, both talented running backs with injury questions. Smith will back up Jamal Lewis in Baltimore, so he may see some playing time given Lewis' past health questions. Still, Smith wasn't the healthiest of players during his Georgia career, so he's worth only as late-round insurance. Fargas rose up the draft charts with a great Senior Bowl and Combine, but for now he'll have to overtake Charlie Garner and Tyrone Wheatley for playing time. While Clinton Portis was able to overcome that in Denver, I don't see the same for Fargas in Oakland. Not this year, at least.
James Quintong is Fantasy Sports Producer at SI.com.
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