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It's getting kind of drafty in here

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Posted: Thu December 4, 1997

Interesting question this week from a reader who didn't leave his name: Peter, what's the outlook for the 1998 draft?

OK, Mr. Anonymous, let's take a look at the top players in the draft pool. I'm including some juniors who I think will come out, such as Washington State QB Ryan Leaf, to whom I spoke over the weekend. He tried to convince me he was very undecided—"Why does everyone have me definitely coming out? The only advantage to coming out now is the money," he told me—but I'm not shopping at that store. Leaf's major adviser these days? Drew Bledsoe. Hmmm. Bledsoe came out early. He's from Washington State. He's a small-town Pacific Northwest kid. Leaf is coming.

Here's my select seven, along with my best guess as to which clubs will be doing the drafting:

1. Indy—DE Andre Wadsworth, Florida State.
   
2. Chicago—QB Ryan Leaf, Washington State.
   
3. San Diego—QB Peyton Manning, Tennessee.
   
4. St. Louis—CB/KR Charles Woodson, Michigan.
   
5. Arizona—CB Dre' Bly, North Carolina.
   
6. Baltimore—WR Randy Moss, Marshall.
   
7. Cincy—OT Tre Thomas, Florida State.

That's as far as I'm ready to go right now. On to the questions.

I think the Buffalo Bills are just one element away from being a playoff team. Do you think they should trade some, or one, of their core players to ensure they can draft Peyton Manning or Ryan Leaf?
—Matt Garrow, Peterborough, Ontario

Whom do you propose trading? To get from where the Bills should pick (maybe 13th to 17th) to number two or one, which is what it would take to get the quarterback of your dreams, Buffalo would have to trade its pick plus about three good, very reasonably priced players. The Bills don't work this way. They'd be much better off trading the pick they own, if they can, for Jacksonville QB Rob Johnson.

You've just been hired to to replace Giants GM George Young. What are your top priorities?
—John Zylinski, Lake Hopatcong, N.J.

My five key moves upon taking over as Giants general manager on Feb. 1, 1998:

1. Get the quarterback of the future. I'm 80 percent sure it's not Danny Kanell. I'd offer Jacksonville my No. 1 for Johnson. If that fails, and Kanell isn't the man, I sign the Rams' Mark Rypien, who'll be a free agent at the end of this season. The Giants could use Rypien for two years while they develop Kanell or a guy I pick around the third round in April.

2. Spend $3.5 million a year to buy free-agent tackle Todd Steussie of the cash-strapped Vikings.

3. Use my second-round pick in this draft to take the best offensive lineman available.

4. Convince Jerry Angelo, the ultra-solid personnel guru of the Buccaneers (and a former Giants scout), to run my personnel department.

5. Buy three free agents who would immediately impact my special teams—it's clear the offense is going to be less than mediocre for a while, and I need to supplement my special teams to make them among the top five units in the league. Look what happened to the Jets with Bill Parcells: He's a big special-teams guy and I'd attribute two or three of their wins largely to special-teams play.

Despite their disappointing season, I think the Bengals got the steal of the 1997 draft by picking RB Corey Dillon in the second round. I think we're looking at a future Pro Bowler. What is your take?
—Chris P., Albuquerque, N.M.

Here's what Boomer Esiason told me on Sunday: "Corey Dillon's the real deal, one of the best backs I've ever played with. Man, does he hit the hole!" It's no secret lots of the Bengals think he's better than Ki-Jana Carter and should be getting the bulk of the handoffs right now.

Is there any truth to the rumor that Green Bay GM Ron Wolf will be swept off to Seattle? If so, wouldn't Mike Holmgren leave Green Bay, too?
—Dave Schneider, Green Bay

I talked to Ron Wolf at length about this rumor a week ago. He didn't categorically stifle it, but I'd be shocked if he pursued a job in Seattle. First of all, he's signed with the Packers through 2002 and he'd have to be miserable to try to force the Packers to allow him to leave. He's definitely not miserable and his wife and two sons are as happy as they've ever been in all the cities where they've lived. Secondly, Holmgren certainly wouldn't leave if Wolf did. Mike has always wanted to run a whole show and Wolf's departure would give him the chance.

Why is it that Kansas City gets no respect? It seems that when the Chiefs play anybody with a winning record, including last week's game against the Niners, they are always picked to lose.
—Brian R. Moore, Kansas City

It is silly to disrespect the Chiefs now, because they're among the league's best four or five teams. But here's why you don't see people sweating about these guys yet:

1996—Out of the playoffs.
1995—Lost in the divisional round to Indianapolis.
1994—Lost in the wild-card round to Miami.
1993—Lost in the title game to Buffalo.
1992—Lost in the wild-card round to San Diego
1991—Lost in the divisional round to Buffalo.
1990—Lost in the wild-card round to Miami.

I'm really not trying to rain on your parade—I respect Marty Schottenheimer and his defense immensely—but this isn't exactly January's Team.

When do you expect the new TV deal to be announced? What do you think will happen?
—Cesar Bustamante, Tegucigalpa, Honduras

Here's what I hear: The TV negotiations are likely to climax with a deal sometime between December 22 and January 25. I hear rights fees will rise 60% to 70% overall, which means the salary cap will rise to $46 or $47 million in 1998. I hear each of the five incumbents—NBC, Fox, ABC, ESPN and TNT—will hold onto its package. There will not be a sixth network package added because you can't ask the incumbents to buy a diluted package for premium money. For the same reason, ABC will not get any more games—the league doesn't want to steal games from another package.

What is the cause of the Panthers' problems? Did Kerry Collins come back too soon from his broken jaw? Or is it the loss of LB Kevin Greene or something else entirely?
—Steven Sexton, Elkin, N.C.

You can't underestimate the loss of Kevin Greene. Last year he and Lamar Lathon combined for 28 sacks. This year Greene is gone and Lathon has two sacks. Amazing: Lathon has been sackless in 11 games!

Greene was a wild man last season and you need that Greene/Spielman/Irvin craziness on a team sometimes. "The thing about it is," Lathon said this week, "is coach [Dom] Capers has always put it in our heads that we can win with the guys that we have in this room if we got tight and became a close-knit family. It just took too long to become a close-knit family [this year], and we struggled and struggled...all season long. You try to hold tight and sometimes you come apart at the seams."

I just read your feel-good Mailbag item on the Packers' stock sale. But will the stock be a true piece of the Packers? Isn't this just a publicity ploy and isn't the "stock" really a souvenir? If it is a souvenir, could the NFLPA argue that the sales should count as licensed merchandise, which would affect the salary cap?
—Sean Fagan, Atlanta

The sale of this stock won't count against the cap because the Packers have told the league that all money raised—it could be as much as $80 million—will go toward physical plant and stadium improvement and long-range planning. None will be spent for free agents, though you could argue logically that because the Packers won't have to put their current profits toward long-range stuff, they will actually have more to spend on players. It really is stock, by the way—each buyer will own an infinitesimal piece of the team, although they have no rights to sell it.

See you next week.

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