Before you
holler, here are
my
predictions
Posted: Thu August 20,
1998
Be sure to check out Peter King's Postcards from Camp, a
14-part series of e-mails from his annual
NFL tour. And submit your season-opening questions for Peter's
next Mailbag, coming in two
weeks.
I didn't do
it.
I have been abused by Patriots fans because Sports
Illustrated picked the
Jets to win the AFC
East, over
New
England. I was called an idiot by a Saints fan in Denver last week
because SI picked
the Saints to go
1-15. I haven't heard from Chiefs fans yet, but they must be
thrilled to see that SI
picked KC to go
8-8.
Paul
Zimmerman, my esteemed colleague and fellow New Jerseyan, predicted
the order of finish and the records for every team. This is
not to say I think he's a dunderhead for his picks. Check
his track record; I bet he's the best by far of any
national writer in
recent years. The only thing I categorically disagree with is his
Chiefs pick—they won't be worse than
11-5.
Anyway, I'm going to take some space, before answering your
questions, to slot the teams for you, one to 30. Then you
can feel free to get mad at me. Here
goes:
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1. Green Bay,
12-4. | | Super Bowl winners, even with a weak
pass-rush.
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2. Tampa Bay,
12-4. | |
Trent, you're scaring me,
man.
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3. Jacksonville,
11-5. | | "So many weapons,'' Chargers coach and former Jax
offensive coordinator
Kevin
Gilbride told me the other day. "And now look at their
backfield. Just awesome.'' He's right. That
Tavian
Banks is a
horse.
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4. Denver,
11-5. | | Saw a vintage first drive by
Elway last Friday against the Saints and thought to myself:
These guys are going to win it again. If they're healthy,
they
might.
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5. San Francisco,
11-5. | | Suddenly, after watching the Niners' firsts against
Seattle's firsts, I'm not worried about their supposedly
weak tackles,
Derrick
Deese and
Dave
Fiore. Fiore looks like he might be
special.
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6. Kansas City,
11-5. | | At the end of this year,
Marty
Schottenheimer will say to himself: I wish I'd gotten a great back in the
offseason.
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7. Pittsburgh,
11-5. | |
Jerome
Bettis
rules.
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8. Minnesota,
10-6. | | With an outside pass rush, the Vikes would be as good as
Tampa.
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9. Miami,
10-6. | | I probably believe in
Jimmy
Johnson more than I should. This is a
John
Avery
pick.
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10. New England,
9-7. | | Love the talent, but so many things in flux there scare
me. The Patriots will have to beat the Jets out for a
wild-card
spot.
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11. Giants,
9-7. | | Get ready for some more 13-10 games, Giants
fans.
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12. Carolina,
9-7. | |
Kerry
Collins makes this a wild-card
team.
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13. Jets,
9-7. | |
Curtis
Martin and special teams get the Jets on the brink of a wild-card
game at
Pittsburgh.
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14. Detroit,
8-8. | |
Charlie
Batch plays in
December.
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15. Washington,
8-8. | | The Skins are reborn defensively, but
Gus
Frerotte struggles and their schedule kills
them.
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16. Oakland,
8-8. | | Something tells me I'm underestimating the
Raiders.
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17. Dallas,
8-8. | | Something tells me I'm overestimating the
Cowboys.
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18. Arizona,
8-8. | | Something tells me I wish
Andre
Wadsworth would get into camp so I could figure this team
out.
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19. Seattle,
8-8. | | Can't see the Hawks going better than 2-4 against Kansas
City, Denver and
Oakland.
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20. Tennessee,
8-8. | |
Jeff
Fisher is close—if
McNair's as good as Fisher thinks he
is..
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21. Atlanta,
8-8. | | This is what happens when St. Louis and New Orleans are
worse than
you.
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22. San Diego,
6-10. | | Too many holes, even if Ryan Leaf plays as
advertised.
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23. Baltimore,
6-10. | |
Jim Harbaugh
is the comeback player of the year, but it's not nearly
enough.
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24. Philadelphia,
5-11. | |
Ray
Rhodes deserves better than to be fired, but it'll happen
anyway.
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25. Indianapolis,
5-11. | | And that's with
Jim
Mora making a bad defense
competitive.
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26. Cincinnati,
5-11. | | But the best young linebacker in football,
Takeo
Spikes, will emerge from the
wreckage.
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27. Buffalo,
5-11. | | Sorry,
Wade. You've just got too many
holes.
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28. New Orleans,
3-11-2. | | They tie the Rams
twice.
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29. St. Louis,
3-11-2. | |
Dick
Vermeil pulls his hair out over
Tony
Banks and
Grant
Wistrom.
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30. Chicago,
2-14. | | But at least they've got that wonderful citizen,
Curtis
Enis.
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Now for your
questions.
I am a transplanted Bucs fan. I watch them very closely,
and I'm wondering about Trent Dilfer. Do you think he is a
legitimate star at his position, and if so, why is he
struggling so much this
preseason?
—Harry Hendon Jr., Englewood,
Colo.
Trent Dilfer has never been a legitimate star, and I doubt
he ever will be. I think what's troubling him is a
combination of things. He has a bum
ankle from late last season which still isn't fully healed.
He's throwing to some new
receivers—Bert
Emanuel,
Jacquez
Green (the star of Bucs camp so far), mostly. And he's playing
without his banged-up security blanket, T
Paul
Gruber. Don't make too much of his 5-for-25 preseason start,
though it's certainly cause for a raised eyebrow. Give him
a couple of
weeks.
Who do you think will be the every-down back for the Giants
this
year?
—Joey
Risi
Gut feeling?
Gary
Brown will get the first shot to be the first- and second-down
back,
Tiki
Barber and
Charles
Way will share the third-down job until one of them takes it
over, and
Tyrone
Wheatley (who still might get cut if he doesn't show
Jim
Fassel some fire) will have a chance to unseat Brown if he gets
hot. I'm not counting on it, though. People have asked me
why I'm down on Wheatley. Three reasons: He plays with no
fire. He's too slow to turn the corner on astroturf. And
he's too soft to run
consistently well between the tackles. Other than that,
Mrs.
Lincoln, how did you like the
play?
With the addition of
DT Chester McGlockton and DE Leslie O'Neal to the Kansas
City defense, how will teams score on the '98
Chiefs?
—Don Elliott, Independence,
Mo.
I don't recall entering a season in which fans were more
cocky about their team—particularly the
defense—than this year's Chiefs fans. The e-mail we're
getting here shows everyone's bought into the McGlockton
and O'Neal acquisitions as the ones to send
the Chiefs to the Super Bowl. Now I'm not saying those are
bad signings. But ask anyone—other than
Howie
Long, who ought to be running McGlockton's presidential
campaign—who's played with or against McGlockton, and
you'll get some version of the following statement: When he
turns it on, he's a good player, but he doesn't turn it on
enough. O'Neal is old. He
might be a 12-sack guy. He might be a two-sack guy. Tell me if
he'll be healthy, and then we can judge him. Hey, I like
the Chiefs. They're one of the five or six best teams in
football. But let's not make them the '85 Bears just
yet.
There seems to be a lot of emphasis on how Willie Shaw will
affect the Oakland Raiders defense. As you know, it was
terrible last year. Shaw comes with a reputation as a good
defensive coordinator. What kind of impact do you see Shaw
having based on his history and will CB Charles Woodson
make Shaw look like a
genius?
—Al Ross,
Oakland
I was at Raiders camp last week, and I saw Willie Shaw at
his vintage best—coaching, cajoling, teaching,
laughing. Every guy I've ever talked to who's played for
Shaw thinks he's one of the best teachers they've ever had.
When I watch Woodson, I see one
of the most fluid players I've ever seen on either side of
the ball. Shaw will use him
wisely.
My friend and I are the biggest Jim Everett fans in the
world but we have heard no news of him since he was injured
with the Chargers last season. We're curious to know
whether he's recovered and is at training camp somewhere or
if he
retired.
—John Gilbert,
Edmonton
On my training-camp travels this year, I have not heard one
GM or scout say a word about Jim Everett, even with the sad
state of backup quarterbacking in the league. I assume he
and
Bobby
Hebert will get signed when a couple of starters go down, but no
one's really anxious to do
it.
Is there any kind of quarterback controversy in
Philadelphia? Koy Detmer seems to be playing too well not
to be considered for the starting
job.
—Josh, Chula Vista,
Calif.
Bobby Hoying's the no-doubt guy. I can't imagine anything
will happen to make
Ray
Rhodes change his mind—certainly not the performance of
Detmer against the bottom of the Steelers' defensive roster
last
week.
With the Patriots struggling at running back, what are the
chances of them shopping around? Perhaps Dorsey
Levens?
—Mike Reilly,
Boston
Even if the Patriots had the cap room—and they don't,
not with the money they're going to be spending imminently,
making LB
Ted
Johnson a $5-million-a-year player any day now—you don't
draft
Robert
Edwards with the 17th pick of the draft and then go out and pay $5
million a year for Dorsey Levens. I keep hearing Levens is
very close to caving and signing with Green Bay. Give the
Pats another week before giving up on the running game;
they did show some
progress Monday night when their first offense outplayed
Dallas'
Leon
Lett-less first defense. But I agree with you—they've
stunk it up on the ground so far and you've got to be
worried. And
Sedrick
Shaw is certainly not the answer. New England will be sinking
or swimming with Edwards, if he's healthy
enough.
Craig Erickson has been with the Dolphins going on three
years and other than winning one game he hasn't exactly
been impressive. What does Jimmy Johnson see in
him?
—Eric Leger, Port St John,
Fla.
I expect Erickson will be the Miami QB in 1999 or 2000 if
Johnson is still around. Jimmy likes him, quite simply,
because he's a steady guy who throws with accuracy and has
no ego. If the Dolphins become the run-dominated team
Johnson hopes they will,
then they'll need the quarterback to be efficient, throw one
interception about every eight quarters, and not beef about
his role. I firmly believe Erickson can be that guy. But if
the running game isn't dominant, Erickson will have a load
of trouble
being a big-yardage
guy.
Look for my next Mailbag on Sept.
3.
Click here to submit a question to Peter
King.
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