Sixth Sense

In the end, Michael Jordan should add to his five title rings, but for starters the NBA playoffs promise an entrancing mix of hot streaks, mind games and other unpredictable forces

by Phil Taylor

Posted: Wed April 22, 1998

Let's face it, we all know how the NBA playoffs are going to turn out: with Michael Jordan puffing on a stogie and clutching his sixth championship trophy to his chest. It might seem hard to get excited about the postseason when Jordan and the Bulls are such prohibitive favorites, but if you think knowing the ending spoils the entire story, why did you go see Titanic?

Jordan is set to explode in the postseason, while Rodman is ready to rumble.    (Manny Millan)

Consider for a moment some postseason imponderables. Will Jordan be faced with the challenge of a seven-game series somewhere along the way, one that softens up Chicago for its next foe? In the Western Conference's first round, can the speed of the No. 4-seeded Suns overcome the size of the No. 5 Spurs? Among the top Western contenders, what's the most valuable quality: the savvy of the Jazz, the balance of the SuperSonics or the sheer talent of the Lakers? Can the No. 2 Heat and the No. 7 Knicks complete their first-round Eastern Conference series without a fatality? In this season of injuries, which balky body part will have the biggest impact on the proceedings—the hernia of Rockets forward Charles Barkley, the right wrist of Knicks center Patrick Ewing, the feet of Pacers center Rik Smits or the right thumb of Nets center Jayson Williams?

What follows are keys to the playoffs. Remember, just because the ship is headed for the same old destination doesn't mean this can't be an entertaining trip.

1. WHO CAN SET THE TONE EARLY?

Sometimes the pattern for a team's postseason can be established in the first quarter of the first game of the first round. With that in mind, here are three recommendations:

David Robinson should flatten someone. The Spurs have been playoff softies in the past, and no one is more symbolic of that failing than their graceful center, Robinson. We're not suggesting he do anything dirty, but he needs to send the message that neither he nor his teammates will be pushed around. The best way to do that is by depositing squarely on his backside the first opponent who attempts to drive the lane. If San Antonio doesn't show it's ready to get physical, it won't last long.

The Heat should run a play in which Voshon Lenard shoots a three-pointer. If he misses, Miami should run another, and, if necessary, another. The Heat should go to Lenard, its shooting guard, until he hits a trey. He needs early success from the outside to bolster his confidence, because when he isn't shooting well, the rest of his game tends to suffer. With two other important gunners not in top form—forward Jamal Mashburn is coming off a fractured right thumb, and guard Brent Barry is riding the bench—Miami can't afford an off-target Lenard.

Hakeem Olajuwon should dust off the Dream Shake. A bad left knee has limited Olajuwon's effectiveness, but he's still capable of taking over a series for the Rockets. He needs to unveil a few vintage moves early against the Jazz (the West's No. 1 seed) to establish that he can't be guarded one-on-one. If he begins drawing frequent double teams, he will create openings for other Rockets, and No. 8 Houston will have a better shot at a firstround upset.

2. CAN THE SONICS DO BETTER ON THE BOARDS?

Seattle, which finished last in the NBA in rebounding (38.5 per game), will be repeatedly reminded that only one team, the 1972-73 Knicks, has ever earned that dubious honor and gone on to win the championship. The Sonics' weakness is the single most glaring flaw in any of the title contenders. Not only does Seattle lack a ferocious big man to clean the glass, but its trapping, switching defense also leaves its players out of good rebounding position. "There are times, because of our defense, when I find myself on the perimeter when the ball is shot," says 6'9 1/2" forward-center Sam Perkins. "If I'm out there sometimes, then it stands to reason that some of our other big men are out there."

The Sonics overcame their deficiency well enough to win 61 games and the Pacific Division title in the regular season, so why should they be concerned now? Because playoff basketball is different from the regular-season game. The pace tends to slow down in the postseason and teams are more careful with the ball, which means Seattle may not be able to compensate for its feeble rebounding by creating as many turnovers as in the regular season. In a half-court, methodical game the ability to control the defensive boards is crucial; if the Sonics can't do that against the more physical front lines of the Lakers and the Jazz (whom they would meet in the later rounds), they will be in deep trouble. It would help a lot if forward Vin Baker, who led Seattle with a relatively paltry 8.0 rebounds per game, bumped that number up to double figures.

3. WHO'S THIS YEAR'S BRYON RUSSELL?

Russell, the Jazz's small forward, was one of the surprises of last year's playoffs because of his sharp outside shooting and his tough defense against Jordan, among others. Some of the role players with the best chance of duplicating Russell's emergence:

School will be out early in Seattle if Detlef Schrempf (11) and other SuperSonics fail their boards.    (John W. McDonough)

Scott Burrell, Bulls. It took him about half a season to get used to Chicago's system, but recently Burrell has been making big contributions off the bench. At 6'7" he can spell either Jordan or forward Scottie Pippen, and he gives the Bulls yet another defensive stopper.

Alan Henderson, Hawks. Henderson, a third-year forward, has turned into more than a role player. He has earned his way into the starting lineup, supplanting Christian Laettner, and he seems ready for a breakthrough to stardom.

Jalen Rose, Pacers. The 6'8" Rose has blossomed under coach Larry Bird. In his fourth season he has gone from a player with no position to a versatile substitute who can perform at any of the three perimeter spots. With his height, he presents opponents with a difficult matchup.

Mark Strickland, Heat. Strickland, a 6'10" third-year center who's active on the boards, is another little-known player who has thrived under coach Pat Riley. If Strickland continues to play well, Miami might not feel the absence of backup center Isaac Austin, who was traded to the Clippers in midseason.

4. WHO CAN EXPLOIT—OR AVOID—POTENTIALLY DEADLY MATCHUPS?

There are several of these. The most intriguing:

The Heat's Alonzo Mourning vs. the Bulls' Dennis Rodman. The always irritating Rodman took Mourning out of his game in last year's Eastern Conference finals, and he would love the chance to do it again should there be a rematch this year in the same round. You can almost see the steam fogging up the 6'10" Mourning's mask (which he's wearing to protect a broken cheekbone) when he faces the 6'8" Rodman. "Dennis is like a little brother," says Barkley. "If you let him see that he's bothering you, it just encourages him. You have to ignore him, and maybe he'll go away." Mourning, who has tried to be less outwardly emotional this season, will have his new demeanor put to the test by Rodman.

The Jazz's Jeff Hornacek vs. the Lakers' Eddie Jones. The 6'4" Hornacek is a smart, hardworking defender, but he's at an extreme disadvantage against quick, athletic shooting guards like the 6'6" Jones, whom he would meet in the Western finals. Utah often goes to Russell or forward Shandon Anderson to guard leapers like Jones, Jordan or the Trail Blazers' Isaiah Rider, but then the Jazz loses Hornacek's outside shooting and court sense.

The Pacers' Chris Mullin vs. the Cavaliers' Cedric Henderson. Henderson, a second-round draft choice, has had a surprisingly good rookie season, but Mullin is a clever, 13-year veteran forward who has waited four years since he was last in the playoffs (with the Warriors). He could give Henderson an education in the first round.

Referees Bob Delaney, Hugh Evans and Leroy Richardson vs. Madison Square Garden fans. The three refs erroneously ruled that New York guard Allan Houston's lastsecond shot against Miami on April 12 came after the final buzzer, costing the Knicks a win. Think New York fans will forgive and forget?

5. WHO CAN KNOCK DOWN THE OUTSIDE SHOT?

The following shooters are like thermometers—if they're hot, their teams will be too:

Reggie Miller, Pacers. One of the few players capable of taking over a game with his jump shot. Absolutely fearless, he demands the ball with the game on the line. His playoff scoring average of 24.7 points is five higher than his career regular-season average.

Glen Rice, Hornets. He hasn't quite matched the phenomenal season he had last year, and he doesn't have Miller's clutch reputation, but he's still the first priority for opposing defenses. An ominous note for Charlotte: Rice's three-point shooting accuracy in the playoffs, 31.4%, is more than nine points lower than his career regular-season percentage.

Dale Ellis, SuperSonics. His threepoint field goal accuracy this season was a remarkable 46.4%, but he's battling an abdominal strain that could turn out to be a large pain for Seattle.

John Starks, Knicks. Though mired in a horrendous shooting slump toward the end of the regular season, he has been a playoff spark plug more often than not.

Isaiah Rider, Trail Blazers. His shot selection is awful, but when he's hot, it doesn't matter.

Jaren Jackson, Spurs. He's not a big name, but his two clutch three-pointers helped San Antonio beat Seattle 89-87 last Friday. When Jackson is hitting from the perimeter, he's a perfect complement to the inside game of Robinson and forward Tim Duncan.

The Lakers. When Kobe Bryant, Nick Van Exel and Co. make smart shot selections, they're unbeatable. In the regular season they were 33-0 in games in which they shot 50% or better from the floor.

6. WHO SHOULD AVOID THE LINE?

The Lakers are the worst free throw shooting team in the playoffs (67.9%% in the regular season), but the Spurs aren't much better (68.8%). The Jazz (77.3%), the Knicks (77.2%) and the Rockets (77.1%) are the three teams least likely to hurt themselves at the foul line. Many terrible free throw shooters, such as Indiana forward-center Dale Davis (46.5%), aren't likely to have the ball near the end of a game. Here, however, are six players (and their regular-season foul-shooting percentages) who are the first or second offensive options for their teams and who could be shaky if they are asked to make crucial foul shots near a game's end:

    Shaquille O'Neal, C, Lakers: 52.7%
    Vin Baker, F, SuperSonics: 59.1%
    Anthony Mason, F, Hornets: 64.9%
    Tim Duncan, F, Spurs: 66.2%
    Rasheed Wallace, F, Trail Blazers: 66.2%
    Alonzo Mourning, C, Heat: 66.5%

7. WHO WILL GO OFF?

There are a few live hand grenades, players explosive enough to single-handedly change the course of a series. The Magic's Penny Hardaway proved to be one last season when he carried Orlando to a near upset of Miami in the first round by scoring 42, 41 and 33 points in the last three games. Jordan and Miller, of course, both have a history of playoff explosions. Other players who could detonate:

Robinson (left) can't keep taking it on the chin from rivals like Shaq.    (John W. McDonough)

Tim Hardaway, Heat. Hardaway dominated Knicks point guards Chris Childs and Charlie Ward in last year's Eastern finals, especially in Game 7. New York's guards contained him better this season, but Hardaway can take over a game with his penetration.

Damon Stoudamire, Trail Blazers. He spent the first 2 1/2 years of his career toting the Raptors on his back—"He carried everything but the luggage," says former teammate John Salley—but Stoudamire, a 5'10" point guard, has spread the ball around since being traded to Portland in February. In the playoffs he may not be as deferential, which could benefit the erratic Blazers in their first-round series against the Lakers.

Sam Cassell, Nets. Occasionally he tries to carry New Jersey when his club would be better off if he shared the load. But as he proved with the Rockets during their 1994 and '95 title runs, he lives for the big moment, and he was sensational during the Nets' playoff drive. New Jersey's best chance in its first-round series against Chicago is to turn Cassell loose and see if he can bedevil the Bulls.

Kevin Garnett and Stephon Marbury, Timberwolves. Minnesota's flashy forward and point guard are listed as an entry because at their best, with alley-oop passes flying and dunks crashing, they energize the T-Wolves. Though they'll be facing the powerful Sonics in the first round, Garnett and Marbury shouldn't be awed, since they received their playoff baptism last year. With their young legs, anything is possible.

Allan Houston, Knicks. Since Ewing went down in December, shooting guard Houston has become the focal point for New York's sputtering offense. Houston may have to put up big numbers if the Knicks are to beat the Heat, because his matchup against Lenard is the only one in which New York has a clear advantage.

Issue date: April 27, 1998