INSIDE COLLEGE FOOTBALL
All Is Not Yet Lost
Thanks to the new bowl formula, teams with one defeat need not
give up their title dreams
By Ivan Maisel
Posted: Wed September 30, 1998
Attempts this early in the season to apply the abstruse Bowl
Championship Series formula—which will determine the
No.-1-versus-No.-2 matchup in the Fiesta Bowl—produce little
more than a headache, but some things are becoming clear. One is
that even with one loss, strong teams like Florida State, which
beat then-No. 18 Southern Cal 30-10 last Saturday, and Florida,
which outgunned Kentucky 51-35, aren't out of the picture.
Another is that, when it comes to comparing conferences, the SEC
is strong, the Pac-10 is deep, and the Big Ten is in deep
trouble.
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After defeating USC, Weinke's once-beaten Seminoles
have reason to believe.
(Bill Frakes)
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- Given the quality of their SEC opponents, neither Florida (3-1)
nor the loser of the game this week between unbeatens Georgia and
LSU should give up hope of a berth in the Fiesta. Each of those
teams' strong strength-of-schedule rating (a factor in the Bowl
Championship Series formula along with a team's standing in the
two polls and various computer rankings and its won-lost record)
will help to offset a single defeat.
- Though USC and Washington suffered awful beatings by
nonconference opponents last Saturday, the Pac-10 is 8-3 against
the Big Ten, the Big 12 and the ACC. Oregon, Arizona and UCLA
remain unbeaten and figure to enhance their Bowl Championship
Series ratings because their strength of schedule will be
increased by the strong performances of the other teams in the
Pac-10.
- Given the Big Ten's 4-10 record against teams from the power
conferences and Notre Dame, the loser of the Ohio State-Penn
State game this Saturday can make other plans for Jan. 4. The
Fiesta won't be calling.
- Of the 19 teams that enter October unbeaten, Marshall, Miami
(Ohio) and Tulane will never be ranked high enough to reach the
Fiesta Bowl. Three others are unblemished only by the grace of
their September schedules: Minnesota, Texas Tech and Wisconsin
will falter at some point. That leaves 13 teams with a genuine
chance to finish unbeaten and earn a spot in the title game.
Well, maybe not. By season's end, it's possible that the
Florida-Florida State winner or Syracuse, currently the next most
prominent team with one loss, will be ranked high enough and have
a schedule rating strong enough to come out ahead of an unbeaten
team in the race for a Fiesta Bowl berth.
To curtail all the speculation surrounding strength of
schedule—one scenario has an unbeaten, top-ranked Ohio State
losing a berth in the Fiesta and a shot at the national title due
to the Big Ten's weakness—SEC assistant commissioner Charles
Bloom, who played a large role in developing the BCS formula,
said on Sunday that the release of the schedule ratings will be
moved up from Nov. 15 to as early as Oct. 25.
Issue date: October 5, 1998
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