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Drafting some advice
Sorting over-hyped players from talented ones isn't so tough
Posted: Wednesday April 23, 2003 1:28 PM
Throw out the combines, the 40 times, the "upside." SI.com college football writer Stewart Mandel says there's a much simpler way to evaluate NFL draft prospects: Watch them in college.
Based solely on their college accomplishments, Stewart offers a player at each position who the draftniks have either overrated or underrated.
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Quarterbacks
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Overrated: Carson Palmer, USC
No one was more deserving of the Heisman last season than Palmer, but what about the four seasons before it? Unlike Cal's Kyle Boller, whose struggles as an underclassman could be largely attributed to poor coaching and a sorry surrounding cast, Palmer played under two ex-NFL coaches, and USC is never lacking for talent. It took him four full years to fully grasp the nuances of being a college quarterback, during which time he threw as many touchdowns (39) as interceptions. He could very well become a reliable NFL starter, but it may take him a while -- certainly longer than usually afforded the No. 1 pick.
Photo Credit: Andy Lyons/Getty Images
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Underrated: Byron Leftwich, Marshall
At some point during his senior season, Leftwich's leg injury caused him to fall from the top spot on most draft boards, which is just ridiculous. All the "hobbled" quarterback did was complete 67 percent of his passes and throw for 4,268 yards and 30 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. This following a junior season of 4,132 yards, 38 TDs and seven INTs, including leading the biggest comeback in bowl history against East Carolina. The guy's cannon is indisputable. His only drawback is lack of mobility, but that's not exactly one of Palmer's finer attributes, either. And while we're at it, what are you people smoking to relegate Jason Gesser to the second day??
Photo Credit: Craig Jones/Getty Images
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Running Backs
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Overrated: Musa Smith, Georgia
You know it's a weak year for running backs if Musa could be as high as the third back taken. He's a pretty vanilla runner who doesn't do any one thing particularly well. Yes, he had a nice junior season and proved a key cog in Georgia's SEC championship season, but he wasn't exactly dominating either, placing him 32nd in the country in rushing (101.9 yards per game). He's being touted as a short-yardage back, yet he scored all of eight touchdowns. And remember, this was the first year of his career he managed to remain healthy.
Photo Credit: Matthew Stockman/Getty Images
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Underrated: Onterrio Smith, Oregon
To me, he's the best running back in the draft, a bulldozer who ran for 1,058 yards as a backup in 2001 and followed it up with 1,141 last year despite missing three games with a knee injury. Maybe it's the injury that's keeping him out of first-round contention, maybe it's height (5-fooot-10), maybe it's character issues (he was dismissed from Tennessee for rules violations). All I know is he was Mr. Consistent at Oregon, including some absolutely huge games, most notably a 285-yard day against Washington State as a sophomore.
Photo Credit: Brian Bahr/Getty Images
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Wide Receivers
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Overrated: Sam Aiken, North Carolina
My initial reaction upon seeing him ranked as high as the No. 5 receiver in the draft was, "Who is Sam Aiken?" OK, that's a lie, I certainly remember him at North Carolina, but he wasn't exactly one of the country's more distinguished receivers either, catching 68 balls for 990 yards and four touchdowns as a senior, good for 31st nationally. UNC didn't have a lot of other threats, so he did have to deal with a lot of double-teams. Nevertheless, I can think of far more than four receivers I'd rather have, including ...
Photo Credit: Craig Jones/Getty Images
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Underrated: Justin Gage, Missouri
Talk about double (and triple teamed). This part-time basketball player was Missouri's entire offense before multi-dimensional QB Brad Smith emerged last season. But that didn't stop the converted quarterback from increasing his production every season and earning first team All-Big 12 honors the past two. At 6-4, 210 pounds, he's the prototypical big NFL receiver who's going to stretch the field and create matchup problems for cornerbacks. That is, if someone gives him a chance.
Photo Credit: Elsa/Getty Images
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Offensive Lines
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Overrated: Kwame Harris, Stanford
Harris has always been a guy whose reputation preceded him. He was the nation's top offensive line recruit in 2000, was a starter by his sophomore season and first team all-conference as a junior. But Stanford allowed 38 sacks last season and averaged just 3.4 yards per carry. Even scouts acknowledge Harris is a project, yet somehow worthy of a high first-round pick.
Photo Credit: Tom Hauck/Getty Images
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Underrated: Jon Stinchcomb, Georgia
The younger brother of ex-Bulldog and current Raider Matt, Stinchcomb was a four-year starter and anchored arguably the top offensive line in school history last season, one that helped turn Musa Smith into a 1,300-yard rusher and protected star QB David Greene. Stinchcomb is the prototype blue-collar guy who simply gets the job done, but apparently lacks "upside."
Photo Credit: SEC
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Defensive Ends
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Overrated: Tyler Brayton, Colorado
The appeal here is obvious -- he's huge (6-6, 269). But whoever drafts him will have to acknowledge that they're taking on a "project." Brayton made plenty of big plays over his two years as a starter, but he was far from the type of menacing, head-and-shoulders-above-the-pack pass rusher that has become so prevalent in recent years. Futhermore, Colorado was notoriously soft along the defensive line, particularly against the run, during their consecutive Big 12 North title seasons and it's hard to imagine Brayton was immune from the condition.
Photo Credit: Brian Bahr/Getty Images
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Underrated: DeWayne White, Louisville
Other than Terrell Suggs, he was the most dominant pass-rusher in the country over the past two seasons, collecting 15 sacks as a sophomore and 10.5 as a junior before turning pro. So why is he only the seventh or eighth defensive end on the board? Because he played for Louisville? Because he did it against second-tier Conference USA opponents? Maybe they should ask Florida State's five senior offensive lineman what it was like to block White? He had two sacks against the Seminoles.
Photo Credit: Conference USA
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Defensive Tackles
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Overrated: Kevin Williams, Oklahoma State
A classic one-year wonder. His huge senior year was a major reason Oklahoma State was able to put an end to its five-year bowl drought, but it required an explosion between his junior and senior years and doesn't guarantee he's going to be able to dominate at the next level the way a mid-first round pick should. Kind of reminds me of the aforementioned Gerard Warren.
Photo Credit: Brian Bahr/Getty Images
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Underrated: Rien Long, Washington State
All this guy did as a junior was collect 13 sacks from the tackle position and earn the prestigious Outland Trophy. At 6-6, 302, I'm guessing size isn't a problem. I suppose he's not exactly fleet of foot (5.15 40 time), but you know what, how many 6-6, 300-pound guys are? Maybe he's not first-round material, but anything after second is preposterous.
Photo Credit: Otto Greule Jr./Getty Images
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Linebackers
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Overrated: Chris Clemons, Georgia
There were a lot of perplexed reactions in Athens, Ga., when this one-year starter -- he of a whopping 49 tackles last season -- decided to enter the NFL draft. Perhaps he thought he'd be lonely (or exposed) without more distinguished mates Boss Bailey and Tony Gilbert around next season. Whatever the reason, it's projected some team will almost surely take a chance on him.
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Underrated: LaMarcus McDonald, TCU
It must be the poor 40 time (4.98). How else to explain why this beast of a player is not ranked among the top 10 outside linebackers by some services? This following consecutive all-conference seasons at TCU anchoring one of the nation's top run defenses, including 2002 when he racked up 118 tackles, 30 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks.
Photo Credit: Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
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Cornerbacks
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Overrated: Marcus Trufant, Washington State
If the scouts were looking for a glimpse of how Trufant might fare against NFL-caliber receivers, perhaps they should have watched tape of the past two Apple Cup games, where Washington State's Trufant was primarily matched up against Washington stud Reggie Williams. Williams caught a combined 23 passes for 372 yards.
Photo Credit: Scott Halleran/Getty Images
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Underrated: Ricky Manning Jr., UCLA
Here's a classic window into the NFL scouting process. Trufant and UCLA's Manning played in the same league. Manning started 45 consecutive games, intercepted 13 passes and earned first team All-Pac-10 honors three straight seasons. So what is the difference between being the No. 2 cornerback (Trufant) and the No. 12 (Manning)? Two inches -- Trufant is 5-11, Manning 5-9.
Photo Credit: Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
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Safeties
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Overrated: Julian Battle, Tennessee
Never did understand the Julian Battle phenomenon. His two years at Tennessee following junior college were marked by a lot of trash talk, very little backing it up. Lots of mistakes, lots of opposing receivers getting into the open field. But he's fast and he's a hard hitter, so somewhere along the way he developed a reputation as an elite prospect.
Photo Credit: Andy Lyons/Getty Images
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Underrated: Terrence Holt, N.C. State
All Torry's little brother did in four years at N.C. State was make big play after big play. Granted, a lot of them were on special teams (12 blocked kicks), but that doesn't mean the guy can't play defense. He was a two-time All-ACC safety who made 315 career tackles. Scouts say he's not that fast, but come on -- can the apple really fall that far from the tree?
Photo Credit: Craig Jones/Getty Images
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