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Raiders 17, Bucs 16
Rich Gannon has too many weapons. AP |
By Peter King
Ten reasons why I'm picking Oakland:
1. Rich Gannon. I can't say it enough. He's the accuracy machine, and even against the deft rushes of Simeon Rice, I think he'll have enough savvy and guile to find someone deep or short to dump it to.
2. Bill Callahan's presence. Someone asked Lincoln Kennedy the other day that if the Raiders win, how much credit should Callahan get? Now, understand something about Kennedy. He's honest, and he's not someone to say something flattering if he doesn't feel it. "All of it," he said.
3. The multiplicity of the Raiders' threats on offense. Pick your poison: Charlie Garner short or Jerry Rice intermediate or Jerry Porter deep. And we haven't mentioned the third-best receiving tight end in football, Doug Jolley, or Tim Brown.
4. The O-line. From Barry Sims on the left to Kennedy on the right, they will joust and battle a great defensive front. I'm not saying the Bucs won't make plays on defense; they'll make a bunch. I don't think, however, they'll get the snot-bubble kind of shot on Gannon they need to get.
5. A better defensive line than anyone thinks. No one knows DeLawrence Grant or Rod Coleman right now. No one really knows them, I should say. They will not dominate this game. I like the Bucs offensive line a hugh amount after seeing them play in Philadelphia. But I think the Raiders will throw Brad Johnson off his game.
6. Veteran savvy. You think Bill Romanowski is going to wake up Sunday quivering, saying, "Oh no, this is too big a game?" The Raiders roster is dotted with those guys.
7. They'll be smart enough to know they can't win every battle. Callahan and Marc Trestman aren't designing a game plan to run at Derrick Brooks or throw at Ronde Barber, believe me.
8. Charlie Garner vs. Michael Pittman. Garner might be Marshall Faulk on Sunday.
9. Field position. It will be vital, and I like Shane Lechler over Tom Tupa, although both special teams have shown cracks.
10. Just a gut feeling. I couldn't have more respect for what a team did in a playoff game than what the Bucs did at the Vet last week. This game will come down to someone making a big play in the fourth quarter, maybe very late in the fourth quarter. My money says that play will be made by one of the guys who've been there before. One of Oakland's guys.
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Bucs 16, Raiders 13
Simeon Rice can chase down any QB. AP |
By Don Banks
The Raiders have hung up 30 and 41 points against two tough defenses in the playoffs, so we know they can score on anyone. But Tampa Bay's defense isn't just anyone. The Bucs defense is the NFL's best, and if it handles the challenge of the Raiders No. 1 ranked offense, it'll have the right to be considered among the most dominant units in recent history.
The game will be low-scoring and close, and I think that favors Tampa Bay, which has been winning just that kind of game since Tony Dungy came to town and built the Bucs around stout D in the late 1990s.
Recent Super Bowl trends also seem to lean Tampa Bay's way. New England and Baltimore are the past two champions. What did those Patriots and Ravens have in common? They fielded the far superior defense than their Super Bowl opponents, the Rams and the Giants. Even the year before, the Titans and their tenacious defense gave the high-scoring Rams a real scare, falling just shy of forcing overtime.
In the season's second half, when they started their Super Bowl drive, only one team gave the Raiders trouble. That was the Dolphins, with their top-five defense leading the way. With defensive end Jason Taylor turning in a huge game with three sacks, the Dolphins harassed Rich Gannon all day, getting him out of his rhythm and forcing him to throw off the wrong foot.
Sounds like a dandy little blueprint for the Bucs and their sack specialist, Simeon Rice. Tampa Bay's chances shrink dramatically if Gannon can sit back in the pocket unmolested. To quote Al Davis himself, the Bucs' goal is clear: The quarterback must go down and he must go down hard.
Offensively, Tampa Bay played an intelligent game last week at
Philadelphia, and the Bucs need more of the same.
The game plan should be to limit the mistakes, protect
quarterback Brad Johnson -- the Bucs were 12-0 in the regular season
when they allowed two sacks or fewer -- and run the ball enough to
keep Oakland honest. Maybe with Mike Alstott pounding straight up
the gut.
With its defense, Tampa Bay has a great shot to win if it can put 20 points on the board. A Super Bowl loser hasn't scored 20 points since Denver upset Green Bay 31-24 five years ago in San Diego. The Bucs are averaging 27.1 points a game in Johnson's last eight starts, so the 20-point plateau is not a big stretch.
I say defense continues to reign.
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