No. 16 Florida State (9-4) vs. No. 4 Georgia (12-1) Sugar Bowl: Jan. 1, 8:30 p.m. EST (ABC) Louisiana Superdome (76,791)

CNNSI.com's Stewart Mandel breaks down the Sugar Bowl.
The climates for the two participants couldn't be more opposite. Georgia is basking in the glory of its first SEC championship in 20 years and second 12-win season in school history, recently awarding second-year head coach Mark Richt with a new contract worth $1.5 million annually. On the other hand, Florida State, in addition to completing its first back-to-back four-loss seasons in Bobby Bowden's 27-year tenure, has lost QB Adrian McPherson and DT Darnell Dockett to off-field incidents and QB Chris Rix for missing two exams. The Bulldogs are playing in their first Sugar Bowl since 1983, the Seminoles their fifth in nine years.
Nick Maddox Andy Lyons/Getty Images Florida State's offense vs. Georgia's defense Making his first career start, untested QB Fabian Walker will be facing the nation’s fourth-ranked scoring defense (15.3 ppg), led by All-America DE David Pollack (13 sacks). Expect offensive coordinator Jeff Bowden to play it close to the vest and run the ball early and often behind tackle Brett Williams and the rest of an all-senior offensive line. Speedy RB Nick Maddox will be back from injury, and freshman Leon Washington ran for 134 yards in his first start against Florida. Georgia is fully capable of snuffing out the run, with DT Jonathan Sullivan creating room for highly skilled LB Boss Bailey (109 tackles). FSU’s best hope is that Walker can be effective on the play-action, allowing talented receivers Anquan Boldin (977 yards, 12 TDs) and Talman Gardner the opportunity to burn the Bulldogs’ defensive backs deep.   David Greene Andy Lyons/Allsport Georgia’s offense vs. Florida State’s defense The Bulldogs boast a very balanced offense, with junior RB Musa Smith (1,179 yards) having a career season and QB David Greene (2,836 yards, 22 TDs) earning first team All-SEC honors. Georgia may try to take advantage of Dockett’s absence on FSU’s line and run Smith behind Jon Stinchcomb and its line. But the ‘Noles, led by LBs Kendyll Pope (128 tackles) and Michael Boulware (123), have had success slowing down the run. Where the Bulldogs should be able to exploit FSU is with their two stud receivers, Terrence Edwards (944 yards, 10 TDs) and Fred Gibson (18.2 ypc), against a secondary prone to giving up the big play. Look for Greene to lure them in with underneath stuff to fullback J.T. Wall or tight end Ben Watson, then unload the deep ball. Richt will also rotate in athletic backup QB D.J. Shockley for several series.
Both teams have reliable, strong-legged kickers, Billy Bennett for Georgia and Xavier Beitia for FSU. Gibson is also a dangerous kick returner for the Bulldogs, as is Washington for the ‘Noles. Richt has greatly improved as an in-game manager, and defensive coordinator Brian Van Gorder is renowned for his adjustments. Two years after losing longtime offensive coordinator Richt to Georgia, FSU is still trying to perfect its play-calling. After a month of distractions, the ‘Noles need to come in focused. The Bulldogs must guard against overconfidence.
Florida State T Brett Williams Sr., 6-6, 310 2002 stats: N/A A four-year starter with a national title ring, Williams has been named the ACC’s top blocker two seasons in a row. Georgia DE David Pollack So., 6-2, 275 2002 stats: 97 tackles, 13 sacks, 22 tackles for loss In his first season at the position, Pollack became a superstar and SEC player of the year thanks to several highlight-reel plays.
Georgia would have been favored either way against the BCS’ first four-loss team, but the game truly became a mismatch when Florida State lost Rix. The Bulldogs’ defense is hardly ideal for breaking in a new quarterback, and their offense is too explosive to keep down completely. Florida State has enough talent on defense to keep the score from becoming too lopsided, but not enough offense to keep pace either. The pick: Georgia 27, Florida State 14
Click here for more predictions in the Bowl Pickoff

 

Related information

Multimedia

Visit Video Plus for the latest audio and video