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Really even, or really bad?

Click here for more on this story

Posted: Sunday October 17, 1999 09:50 PM

By Stewart Mandel, CNN/SI

	• BCS Forecast • Bowl race at a glance • Bandwagon Watch • Storylines • Brutally honest, gratuitously early previews • Ask the Glance

Slightly less than four score and seven years ago, the college football powers-to-be decided they'd like to have more parity. One only wonders if they actually envisioned an entire BCS conference's teams with at least two losses halfway through. Or a team that lost 62-0, as well as another with a losing record, still ranked among the 25 best.

Parity, or mediocrity? (Hint: We will attempt to answer just such a question in "Ask the Glance" below.)

This much is clear about the otherwise muddled '99 season: Florida State, Penn State, Nebraska and Virginia Tech have emerged as the four dominant teams, yet each is fully capable of losing any given week. The only impressive conference is the Big Ten. Yes, the SEC has one more Top 10 team, but PSU, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue and Wisconsin possibly all would be there if not for playing each other.

Looking elsewhere, the SEC is still deepest in talent but lacking a clearly dominant team (though one could emerge from Saturday's Tennessee-Alabama tilt). In the Big 12, it's the Huskers, A&M, overrated Kansas State and Texas, then nothing. And here's a thought to give you nightmares tonight: there are five Pac-10 bowl bids.

Each week, the Glance offers its projected BCS lineup based on current standings.
Sugar: Florida State vs. Penn State	Orange: Georgia Tech vs. Florida
Rose: Michigan vs. Arizona	Fiesta: Nebraska vs. Virginia Tech
The bowl race at a glance:
It's a big week for the big conferences. Big Ten leader Penn State travels to Purdue for a tough test Saturday, while Michigan State-Wisconsin will also have an impact on the conference race. Texas or Texas A&M could jump ahead in the Big 12 South with a win over Nebraska or Oklahoma, respectively. In the SEC, Tennessee needs to hold off Alabama to keep any BCS hopes alive. (Florida is in line for the automatic berth; if 'Bama wins, it faces Mississippi State for a spot in Atlanta). And in the (gag) Pac-10, Stanford is halfway to the title, but we're still projecting Arizona (which is in a four-way tie for second).
ON: Drew Brees. No one's torched Michigan State that bad since ... well, its own students last spring.
ON: Virginia Tech. But if you lose to Temple this year, forget it!
OFF: Gary Barnett. After losing to Texas Tech, Buffs' savior now America's highest-paid 46-59-2 coach.
OFF: Cincinnati. September's favorite Cinderella now 2-4 after falling to UAB in overtime.
ON: Wisconsin. 705 yards of offense?! And you lost to the aforementioned Bearcats how?!
OFF: UCLA. Hapless Bruins get shut out at home. Maybe they need those placards after all.
Bowden vs. Bowden
If you're wondering if Clemson has any chance, the answer is ... yes! But only if: 1) Peter Warrick is still out. 2) Chris Weinke sees Tommy and gets confused, suits up for Tigers and 3) Bobby mistakes Clemson QB Woodrow Dantzler for Woodrow Wilson, starts exchanging war stories instead of coaching.
All hail the Hokies
The nation's No. 4 team needs a little help to make it to New Orleans. Hmmm ... let's see. Could be Purdue, Michigan or Michigan State (No. 2 Penn State's remaining opponents), but more likely Pittsburgh, West Virginia or Temple (you guessed it).
Let it snow, let it snow
So much for home-field advantage. If anyone should be able to win under a driving snowstorm, it should be Colorado State. But it lost ... to San Diego State! Next week, the Aztecs return to sunny California for a date with University of Siberia-North Pole.
Nebraska at Texas, Saturday
Unfortunately for the Huskers, their first game away from Lincoln since what seems like 1983 comes against the one foe it hasn't beaten in Big 12 play. We knew Major Applewhite, Major Applewhite was a friend of ours and Eric Crouch, you're no Major Applewhite.
Tennessee at Alabama, Saturday
Tennessee hasn't played in Tuscaloosa since 1930. Alabama hasn't been ranked this high since 1996. Oh, and the Vols haven't won the national title since 1998. Try to remember that, Tide fans, before making any boastful predictions.
North Carolina at Maryland, Saturday
UNC-Maryland on ABC? Cool. Look for Vince Carter to attack the Terps on the perimeter, Steve Francis to try and take Ed Cota one-on-one and Dick Vitale to body surf in the student section.
* Three games selected at random
Ask the Glance and you shall receive.
Remember: this column is updated on Sundays, so don't be that guy who asks, "Is my team gonna win this weekend?" I was wondering if you could offer any reasons for the rather large lack of talent in college football this year. Now I realize that on any given Saturday, any given team can beat you, but the top five to 10 teams this year do not appear to be nearly as dominant as they have in years past. Hank Bullock, Boston It's been well documented how the age of scholarship reductions has vastly increased parity in college football. Just 10, 20 years ago, the Notre Dames and Nebraskas were literally playing at a higher level than most other schools by hoarding all the talent. But you raise a good point about this year in particular. It's possible we didn't fully appreciate just how much talent left the college game these last couple years, from Peyton Manning and Tim Couch to Charles Woodson and Champ Bailey. But then again, are Ron Dayne or Drew Brees really a drop off? No. More likely, it's just that the talent is more equally spread out than normal (witness the Pac-10, where there are plenty of great players but perhaps no great teams). The question is, will this end up a one-year phenomenon? Or will juggernauts as recent as '94-'95 Nebraska and late-'80s Miami be the last of their kind?

 

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