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Surprise, surprise Warning: These teams may sneak up on you in fall
Posted: Tuesday May 30, 2000 02:53 PM
By Stewart Mandel, CNNSI.com First, a disclaimer. This article is in no way intended to ruin your surprise when any or all of the teams mentioned below do indeed become the story of 2000. To avoid said consequence, perhaps it's best that you read and digest these offerings, enjoy for a bit the feeling that comes with gaining college football enlightenment in May -- then forget everything you read. But there is ample reason to explore this topic. As parity grows and schools with little-to-no football tradition invest wads of cash in their programs in the hope of cashing in on bowl games and TV appearances, surprise teams have become more and more prevalent in college football. Last year, 10 teams with losing records the previous season played in bowl games, including several (Minnesota, Oregon State) that ended long streaks of sub-.500 seasons. Looking ahead to this season's possibilities, we break down the element of "surprise" into three categories and identify candidates for each.
The EliteDefinition: A non-traditional power that rises up to compete for national championship or major bowl bid.Recent examples: '95 Northwestern, '98 Kansas State, '99 Virginia Tech This year's best candidates ... Illinois: At the heart of the Illini's rise last year (from 3-8 to 8-4) was sophomore QB Kurt Kittner, so plain and unassuming that he's generally not perceived in the same class as Drew Brees and Michael Vick despite impressive numbers (2,702 yards, 24 TDs, only five INTs).
But what makes Illinois' Rose Bowl prospects -- did we just say that? -- particularly bright is the return of its entire starting offensive line, as well as primary tailback Rocky Harvey. Georgia: The Bulldogs haven't won the SEC title since 1982. But try telling that to their fans, who still consider it an annual expectation -- Alabama, Florida and Tennessee be damned. This year, though, they probably have a point. Gifted junior QB Quincy Carter returns with a dangerous arsenal of receivers. And most observers believe their star-studded defense, featuring line tandem Richard Seymour and Marcus Stroud, won't underachieve like last year. Ole Miss: For the past quarter-century, a Mississippi football season has usually been like a first date: You expect it to be good, but you don't count on anything big happening at the end. Rebels fans have reason to hope for more in 2000, and most of it can be summed up in one word: Deuce. And to think McAllister, the senior Heisman hopeful, isn't even the team's leading returning rusher (that would be Joe Gunn).
The BreakthroughDefinition: A program stuck in a sustained streak of sub-.500 seasons that rises up to land a bowl bid.Recent examples: '99 Minnesota, '99 Hawaii, '99 Oregon State, '99 Wake Forest This year's best candidates ... Maryland: Ron Vanderlinden's crew came awfully close last year, starting 5-2 before losing four straight. With workhorse RB LaMont Jordan and talented QB Calvin McCall returning, here's guessing the Terps turn the corner. Pittsburgh: Another team that barely missed a bowl last year, the Panthers boast one of the nation's premier receiving tandems, Latef Grim (1,106 yards in '99) and Antonio Bryant (844). Safety Ramon Walker was first team All-Big East as a freshman. Cal: This one would truly be a surprise considering most out West don't figure the Bears to improve much on last year's 4-7 mark. That's because defensive studs like CB Deltha O'Neal and LB Sekou Sanyika are gone. But DE Andre Carter and DT Jacob Waasdorp ain't bad themselves, and vaunted sophomore QB Kyle Boller figures to improve fast behind an experienced O-line. Iowa State: Maybe the secret will be not having a Davis brother in the backfield finally. Not that the Cyclones wouldn't like Darren back, but they'll trade him for the chance to finally boast a top-flight defense behind 11 returning starters. Vanderbilt: Likely All-American LB Jamie Winborn anchors a very good defense, and the Commodores are another team that came within one win of a bowl last year. The difference is, when you play in the SEC East, where is that sixth win going to come from?
The BustDefinition: A team ranked highly in the preseason based mostly on past performance that has a disappointing season. Recent examples: '99 Ohio State, '99 Notre Dame, '97 Colorado This year's best candidates ... Tennessee: Far be it from us to pick against a team that's won at least nine games six years running. But one has to figure if the bubble's going to burst, this is the year, what with mass uncertainty at QB and nine of last year's starters playing on Sundays. Penn State: Joe Paterno's teams are never bad, but lately, they're never great, even one as loaded as last year's. And while '99 was filled with promise, 2000 appears to be filled with headaches, what with an entire defense -- even the coordinator -- to replace. USC: Isn't it a bit odd how a team that went 6-6 can suddenly be considered an overwhelming conference favorite? Granted, exciting QB Carson Palmer should return healthy, but there are enough holes to figure Trojans fans are setting themselves up for disappointment. Virginia Tech: The buzz surrounding Michael Vick's show in the Sugar Bowl automatically puts the Hokies in everyone's preseason Top 10 lists. But while Vick put Tech over the top in '99, it was the legendary defense that got them to the edge. Replacing the likes of Corey Moore, Ike Charlton and Co. could prove close to impossible. Georgia Tech: Was George O'Leary getting a bit too cocky when he scheduled that opener against the Hokies? Coach, a 12th game means you have to win seven, not six, to make a bowl game, not exactly a given in the first year "Post-Joe." CNNSI.com college sports producer Stewart Mandel will size up a series of offseason topics from now until Kickoff 2000.
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