Who shall seize the East?

Florida won the SEC only once over the past five seasons. Yet that didn't stop the vast majority of observers from viewing the league -- and particular its East Division -- as the Gators' personal playground.

Despite Tennessee winning just as many national titles as its nemesis in recent years, the popular perception was that since 1990, Florida owned the Vols, not to mention Georgia, South Carolina and the like.

But there were signs even before Steve Spurrier's "retirement" and Florida's dubious hiring of Ron Zook as his replacement of that era drawing to a close.

Like how the Gators' immensely talented 2001 team had no business losing two games. Or how Tennessee finally winning in the Swamp proved its intimidation factor was diminishing. Or how LSU's league championship showed that the SEC's playing field is finally becoming more level.

AD Jeremy Foley's odd and hurried hiring of the New Orleans Saints' defensive coordinator, however, sealed the deal.

In five days' time, the keys to Florida's kingdom were handed from Spurrier to a guy Spurrier once demoted. A guy whose defense, in his last four games as an NFL coordinator, allowed 160 points. And -- most stunning of all in light of the ethical issues raised by another recent coaching hire -- a guy who, as the Gators' D-coordinator in 1991, admitted to receiving faxed copies of Tennessee's plays before UF's 35-18 victory over the Vols.

Needless to say, Florida's division peers are waiting to pounce.

So here's one ranking of the SEC East programs' prospects for the future based on momentum from last season, coaching direction, talent level and the like:

1. Tennessee: The Vols laid an egg in the SEC championship game, but their 34-32 win at the Swamp the week before removed a huge weight off the shoulders of Phillip Fulmer, who will now look to do it on a regular basis. (And make sure no one on his staff knows Zook's fax number).

Fulmer holds a 105-22 record in Knoxville, including three division titles the past five years, and few recruit better. Heck, he already had three freshmen running backs and still convinced vaunted prospect Gerald Riggs Jr., to enroll next year.

The timing might not be right for UT to capitalize on a possible Florida down year in 2002. While the offense could be explosive with the return of Casey Clausen and Kelley Washington, there's a lot of rebuilding to do on defense with the losses of John Henderson, Will Overstreet and Albert Haynesworth. Plus, next year's schedule includes Miami. But looking long term, the 'Canes are one of only two teams, the other Texas, that can claim a deeper pool of talent than the Vols. Don't expect a drop-off anytime soon.

2. Georgia: Gator fans surely will scoff at the suggestion their program could slip behind one they've beaten 11 of the past 12 seasons. But then, Georgia fans could point out that their team has beaten Tennessee the past two.

Unlike the Vols, the Dogs have yet to prove they can put it together over an entire season, but there's ample reason to think they could surpass the Gators. Zook and Mark Richt are both relative newcomers as head coaches (as Richt showed with some of his game management last year), but the difference is, Richt has a track record of success at the collegiate level from his Florida State days. In his first season in Athens, he brought some much-needed excitement to the Dogs' offense, and stars David Greene and Fred Gibson were only freshmen.

Ironically, Gibson, a Georgia native, originally committed to the Gators. If UGA continues to rise and UF starts to slip, there could be many more like Gibson to follow.

3. Florida: It's not so much losing Jabar Gaffney, Reche Caldwell and Mike Pearson that will hurt the Gators' offense. There is still plenty of talent remaining, including the nation's top returning player, Rex Grossman. But don't be surprised if Florida's post-Spurrier offense resembles that of Georgia Tech last year, which returned stars like George Godsey and Kelly Campbell and still put up big numbers, but just didn't scare people the way it did under former coordinator Ralph Friedgen.

Where Florida will hurt more is on defense, where the effect of losing senior stalwarts Andra Davis and Alex Brown can't be overstated. First-year defensive line coach Ricky Hunley, largely credited for UF's improved play up front last season, was not retained by Zook. Neither was defensive coordinator Jon Hoke, the perennial scapegoat every time Florida lost a game the past couple years.

By this time next year, Florida fans might appreciate him a whole lot more.

4. South Carolina: The Gamecocks are coming off 8-4 and 9-3 seasons with consecutive Outback Bowl wins. Lou Holtz's reputation has never been higher. But we'll find out once and for all whether it's the coach's doing next season, when S.C. has to deal with replacing several players central to its turnaround, like Phil Petty, Kalimba Edwards, Brian Scott, Sheldon Brown and now Derek Watson.

From a recruiting standpoint, things couldn't be going better for the Gamecocks, who have formed a lock around their state's top prospects. The one thing working against them right now is few outside the program believe Holtz will be there long enough to build a truly stable program.

5. Kentucky: Obviously, there's a steep drop-off between the top four and the bottom two in this division. And obviously, Vanderbilt must be pretty bad when Kentucky can be in its present state and not be sixth. The mass exodus of several big contributors -- Dennis Johnson, Derek Smith, Chad Scott -- almost assures the Wildcats will be bad enough next season to warrant Guy Morris' exit after just two seasons, and NCAA sanctions are on the way. But there's still more talent in the cupboard than ...

6. Vanderbilt: Still without a winning season since 1982, Vandy now hands the reins to Bobby Johnson. The Commodores whiffed on their ambitious attempts to lure Gary Barnett and Tyrone Willingham but seem keen on the ex-Furman coach. The good news is, the Commodores can only go one way: up. But this is one team Florida won't be worrying about any time soon.

Stewart Mandel covers college football for CNNSI.com.

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