Surely, you wouldn't pronounce Tennessee dead if the Vols lost to Florida this weekend. Or Notre Dame, for that matter, if the Irish slipped up against Michigan State. But for one-loss, mid-major darlings like BYU, Marshall and Colorado State, the BCS' autopsy is already in.
A 17-week season can be a world of second chances -- if you're a first-tier conference team. But for a mid-major without a perfect record, it can feel, well, like a bad figure skating routine.
Granted, the two sports haven't resembled each other since Wolfgang Wormeldanger paired up with Nancy Kerrigan on Saturday Night Live; and even then, he designed the costumes. But perhaps Bret Engemann, Byron Leftwich and Bradlee Van Pelt have more in common with the Michele Kwans of the world than they'd care to admit.
Reason being, figure skaters like Kwan understand the concept of one-and-done all too well. Take the 2002 Winter Olympics: One horrific tumble to the ice, and it was goodbye gold, hello bronze. Then take the 2002 BYU season: Just one ugly, grass-stained Saturday and it's goodbye BCS gripe, and hello Liberty Bowl. At best. And crying on the bench afterwards is unacceptable.
At least in 2001, there was a bit of suspense over all this. BYU was undefeated heading into the final week, practically holding a lit cherry bomb over the BCS' toilet, and then the Cougs choked in a 72-45 loss to Hawaii. They seemed less than enthused in the Liberty Bowl, losing 28-10 to Louisville.
Fresno State was 6-0 in mid-October after wins over Colorado, Oregon State and Wisconsin -- all quality . Then the Bulldogs tanked it in games seven and eight, losing 35-30 to Boise State and 38-34 to Hawaii.
It's only Week 5 of 2002, and BCS committee members can already pack up their flak jackets. The issue of a mid-major upstart is seemingly moot: BYU took its dive against Nevada on Saturday night, Marshall couldn't pass its big test against Virginia Tech on Thursday, Utah lost to Arizona, and Colorado State, Louisville and Fresno State already suffered that perilous, first "L" in either Week 1, 2 or 3.
That's not to say there won't be an underprivileged, undefeated team this year. Two prime candidates still remain, but lack the schedule strength to even get near the BCS' top six:
Southern Miss, currently 3-0, could make an unfettered run through the C-USA if it survives Alabama in Tuscaloosa this weekend. They have a legitimate star in RB Derrick Nix, the nation's second-best rusher at 158 yards per game. But even at 12-0, USM may not be able to claim a true "quality" win, seeing that Illinois and Louisville, arguably the Golden Eagles' two best opponents, aren't playing up to their potential.
The mid-major with the best shot at perfection is the MAC's Bowling Green, of all teams. The Falcons put 51 points on the Big 12's Missouri last week to improve to 2-0, a far cry from their 2-9 campaign in 2000. With a conference schedule that doesn't include Marshall or Miami of Ohio, and one of the country's few spread offenses that still works, who knows?
USM or BGSU could make a wonderful Cinderella story, yet sadly, neither would be invited to the BCS medal stand. But, like figure skaters, they'll know what to do if it happens:
Blame the judges.
Huskers' black cat
No one, not even JoePa, expected a 40-7 thrashing in Happy Valley, but upon closer examination, Nebraska's weekend was shrouded in one big, black omen. Mechanical problems delayed the Huskers' Friday flight by five hours, and the team arrived in State College, Pa., at nearly 10 p.m., too late for its walk-through practice. To make things worse, NU's hotel reservations were lost in a "scheduling mix-up," forcing the team to shack up an hour away in Altoona. On their way out of the stadium Saturday night, with a miserable trip ahead, a large trash can blocked the path of team bus. According to the New York Times, head coach Frank Solich had to move the can out of the way. Small penance for such a poor track record on the road ...
More than a slogan?
Michigan State's athletic department drafted a catchy label for QB Jeff Smoker and WR Charles Rogers: "Where there's Smoke, there's Fire." Apparently Smoker and head coach Bobby Williams are viewing this as a binding agreement. An unnamed MSU player told the Detroit News that 50 percent of the team's passing plays are designed for Rogers, after Smoker repeatedly forced the ball to Rogers into double and triple coverage in a loss to Cal. Rogers is putting up big, big numbers (459 yards in three games), but the Spartans haven't lived up to their billing as they prepare to take on Notre Dame.
'I don't know what in the hell he's doing'
Utah coach Ron McBride was more than steamed about having his team's game-tying touchdown against Arizona disallowed with 38 seconds left. Not just about the call –- he went as far as to claim that one of the game's refs, Jim Fogltance, was a downright homer. "[Fogltance] is a big-time UA guy. He lives there, and has always been a big supporter of theirs. He's a big booster. I don't know what in the hell he's doing, doing the game. ... I knew him when I was down there [as a coach at UA]," McBride said. What the Pac-10 possesses in powerful football teams, it apparently lacks in discretion toward its refereeing assignments.
HOT: Maurice Clarett Heisman Talk The fact that he had arthroscopic surgery this week -- and may even play Saturday -- only adds fuel to the fire. Tack on an "overcoming adversity" angle to a freshman who's averaging 7.3 yards per carry? What's not to like?
NOT: Fundamentals in Michigan
Michigan State committed five turnovers -- including four in the first half -- in a 46-22 loss to Cal. Michigan coughed it up four times in a 25-23 loss to Notre Dame. And the Wolverines are only batting .250 on field goals this season. Does Tom Emanski make a football video?
HOT: Pac-10 in the Sagarin Ratings
If you're only as strong as your weakest link, then the Pac-10 would still be sittin' pretty. All of the conference's 10 teams are ranked in Sagarin's top 35, with USC the highest at No. 3 and Arizona St. pulling up the not-so distant rear at No. 35.
NOT: Florida
Intermittently during Saturday's sloppy win over Ohio, the Gators were booed by their own fans. Has The Swamp become Yankee Stadium, or is UF really not looking good entering Saturday's game at Tennessee? I'd say it's the latter.
Notre Dame at Michigan State, 3:30 p.m. EDT, ABC Location traditionally plays a big role, but Michigan State didn't display much pride for its home turf against Cal last week. And remember, Ty Willingham is no stranger to East Lansing -- MSU is his alma mater. The Irish look to go 4-0 for the first time since 1993, but the Spartans have been victorious in the teams' last five meetings. The Glance wasn't kind to ND last week, but this time around, we'll give the nod to the Domers.
Virginia Tech at Texas A&M, 3:30 p.m. EDT, ABC Here's a classic nickname showdown: The Hokies' "Untouchable" RBs Lee Suggs and Kevin Jones, the best backfield tandem in the nation, against the Aggies' "Wrecking Crew" defense, ranked No. 2 in D-I after only yielding 33.5 yards per game. The Untouchables might get touched up a bit here, but it's hard to envision anything less than a wrecking ball getting in the way of Virginia Tech's 3-0 momentum.
Florida at Tennessee, 3:30 p.m. EDT, CBS Why do all of these games have to be on at the same time? Perhaps so that if you get sick of Texas A&M's stingy run defense, you can instantly flip to an incredibly porous defensive performance by Florida. The Gators have allowed 209.3 yards per game on the ground thus far -- good for last in the SEC. Vols WR Kelley Washington should make his much-awaited return and give Florida a headache in the secondary as well.
How this week's games played out on EA Sports' NCAA Football 2003.
Tennessee takes it to Florida, 38-27. (Can the pressure Ron Zook feels after this be replicated in a video game?)
The real-life Casey Clausen would love to get Kelley Washington involved immediately, so let's look at how you can accomplish in the game.
Florida's defensive backs are too good to just toss it out there -– you'll get hurt with INTs if you force the ball to Washington when he's double-covered. He dominates on deep balls in single coverage, however, so emphasize the run on first down and call plays on second that send Washington up the field. "Deep" in the Ace Spread set and "Spread" out of the Weak Slot seem to work well. Pump fake early to the right side to make the Gator safeties flinch -– they often will -- and then hit Washington on the left for big-gainers.
If the season ended today ....
Fiesta: Miami vs. Texas
Rose: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Sugar: Tennessee vs. Oklahoma
Orange: Florida State vs. Virginia Tech
Each week during the season, this space will be devoted to your comments on a particular issue. Last week's topic: Like Oklahoma in 1999 and 2000, which historically successful team can come out of a lull and become a national contender?
UGA. A missed field goal allows them to beat Clemson, then a fumbled pitch lets them squeak by South Carolina. God WANTS Georgia to win the title.
Doug Gillett, Columbus, Ga.
The Ohio State Buckeyes will be national title contenders soon, very soon. It wouldn't hurt if the Big Ten added a 12th team and a conference championship game, but I guess that would make too much sense ... and money.
Mark Hoffer, Bonita Springs, Fla.
I would say the USC Trojans. Lately they've been snagging a lot of California blue-chip talent, they've got a proven former NFL coach and the balance of power in the Pac-10 can't stay in the Northwest forever.
Phil Fontain, Oceanside, Calif.
Notre Dame looks poised to make another dash into the top five. Their defense has been stellar -- a key element in most championship teams.
Drederick Tatum
Auburn . The Tigers will probably make a medium run this year, but Tuberville is already making waves in Alabama and Georgia recruiting. Add to that a great freshman class and the Tigers will return to the days of Bo Over the Top in no time.
Kevin Ives, Opelika, Ala.
This week's topic: Maurice Clarett is getting serious attention as a Heisman candidate. 1) Can a freshman win the award? 2) What kind of affect would it have on college football if he did take home the Heisman?
Luke Winn is college football producer for CNNSI.com. To send him a comment or question, click here.
