BCS projection: Sooners will be No. 1

Quentin Griffin had his second-straight two-TD game in a 49-3 win over Iowa State. AP

By Stewart Mandel, CNNSI.com

Oklahoma’s 49-3 win over Iowa State on Saturday did more than just ruin Seneca Wallace’s Heisman hopes. It likely lifted the Sooners to the top of the BCS standings.

The first official rankings will be released Monday at 6 p.m. EDT. Jerry Palm, who replicates the BCS’ complex computer formula on his Web site collegebcs.com, has the 7-0 Sooners jumping from fourth to first following the weekend’s results.

Either Miami (6-0) or Notre Dame (7-0) will be not too far behind at No. 2, the other at No. 3. It’s also too close to call between Virginia Tech (7-0) and Georgia (7-0) for No. 4, with Ohio State (8-0) locked in at No. 6.

This year’s BCS formula is based 25 percent on the AP and coaches Top 25 polls, 25 percent on an average of seven computer rating systems, 25 percent on strength of schedule ranking and 25 percent on number of losses. There is a small bonus for “quality wins” over teams ranked in the BCS’ top 10, reduced from top 15 last season.

Oklahoma scores well with the computers based on a tough schedule that’s included 6-1 Texas, 6-2 Iowa State, 5-2 Alabama and 5-2 South Florida, enough to lead 6-0 Miami despite sitting behind the ‘Canes in the two Top 25 polls.

“Miami’s played Florida, which is not as good as you’d normally think, and Florida State, who’s already had a couple losses,” said Palm. “Miami also has a non-Division I opponent [Florida A&M]. Generally speaking that hurts you.”

In terms of tough schedules, nobody’s tops the Irish, whose schedule rating is No. 1 following their 21-14 win over previously undefeated Air Force. Tyrone Willingham’s crew is rated higher than the ‘Canes in most of the computer polls and thus could be No. 2 when the official standings are released.

Miami fans shouldn’t fret, however. Their team was only No. 4 when the first poll came out last season before winding up in the Rose Bowl and winning the national championship.

“It’s too early to get worked up about it,” Palm said. “We’re not really learning much this week. We’re no closer to any decision now than we were three weeks ago.”

Rounding out the projected top 10, there is a significant drop off from the sixth-ranked Buckeyes -- themselves not that far removed from No. 1 -- to No. 7 Washington State, No. 8 Michigan, No. 9 LSU and No. 10 Texas, all 6-1.

“Teams ahead of them have to lose,” Palm said. “There’s nothing that really separates those teams, they’re all kind of the same.”

N.C. State (8-0), the other remaining undefeated team from a major conference, is saddled at No. 11 due to a weak schedule that ranks 86th out of 117 Division I-A teams. The Wolfpack do have most of the ACC’s top teams remaining, but it’s unclear whether that would be enough to reach the Fiesta Bowl even at 13-0.

“If they were the only undefeated team, No. 1 in both polls, they have shot,” said Palm. “But if they’re not, their schedule is really going to hurt them.”

The rest of the top 15 will be Florida State (5-2), Iowa (7-1), Oregon (6-1) and USC (5-2).

 

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