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Preseason rankings as teams prepare for training camp

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My job this week is to rank all 31 NFL teams. I know it's awfully early for this -- it's like judging a run of wines before you've tasted them, going by labels and vintage reports. Naturally all this will change by the start of the exhibition season, then again by the first week of the regular season, and so on. I can't imagine that there would be any argument over any of these selections, but you never know. I'm not picking best records here, since a lot of that depends on strength of schedule. I'm simply going by what I feel is the quality of each team.

CNN/SI Power Rankings Rank LW Team 1 - St. Louis Rams The big question is whether or not Kurt Warner is showing any lasting effects from his late-season concussion. A month or so ago I heard that he still wasn't 100 percent back. Without Warner at full efficiency, this is a different team. Has the defense improved enough, through free agency and the draft, to keep every game from being a 40-38 shootout? I think so. Just about enough. 2 - Baltimore Ravens When a defending Super Bowl champion falls from grace, the argument is always, "Well, we had to draft last." I've never bought this. It affects one pick. And just look at the way the champion Ravens have improved themselves. Elvis Grbac at QB, Leon Searcy at RT (a big improvement), while losing only two starters, C Mitchell and SS Herring -- good players, granted, but you have to lose somebody. Unless there's some kind of an overconfidence thing at work or an internal implosion, the Ravens should be right back up there again. 3 - Tennessee Titans You know their defense will be good and their offensive line good enough and Eddie George terrific. But ever since they reached exalted status, the Titans have been troubled by a passing game that simply can't get it done in the medium-to-long-range areas. Where's the problem? The wideouts? Steve McNair's inability to find his receivers downfield? The coaching staff and offensive philosophy? Or a combination of all the above? Well, Derrick Mason is a fine clutch receiver and Kevin Dyson has promise, and there are a couple of mid-round picks along for the ride. McNair, coming back from a bad shoulder, is still a puzzler. And the coach, Jeff Fisher, simply must get a little bolder in his outlook. 4 - Denver Broncos Alex Gibbs, who coached those terrific, whiplash O-lines, is in semi-retirement, whatever that means. One of the trio of 1,000-plus-yard backs will be traded, when injuries cost some team a runner. QB Brian Griese should be up around Pro Bowl level and he's got a nice pair of receivers to work with. Which means that the league's No. 2 offense last year should be just fine. But the pass defense ranked last, and the Broncos have brought in a ton of free agents, plus their top three drafts, to try to blanket the defensive scene. The big name D-line imports, Leon Lett and Chester McGlockton, have been getting the most ink, but I think ex-Titans CB Denard Walker is a more serious pickup. The formula here matches that of the Rams -- defensive improvement will determine potential Super Bowl status. 5 - Oakland Raiders This was a very fine team until the big monsters in the middle of the Ravens' D-line collapsed the pocket and brought Rich Gannon down with a clunk and kept Oakland out of the Super Bowl. It's a copycat league, and now everyone will be coming up the middle with all sorts of firepower, and unless the Raiders can control it, the rest is window-dressing. That includes the showcase addition, Jerry Rice, and pass-rush specialist Trace Armstrong, etc. They took a lot of heat for drafting a safetyman, Derrick Gibson, in the first round, but sometimes these offbeat Raiders picks have a way of coming around. 6 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers Trent Dilfer, flunk. Shaun King, flunk. Now ex-Redskin Brad Johnson gets a shot at quarterbacking an offense that is thoroughly disliked by those big horses on defense. The team is troubled by a serious overload situation, D vs. O, and it doesn't seem to matter who the coordinator is (they're on their third one in three years), the offense still seems seat-of-the-pants. Here's my advice: stop burning out Warrick Dunn, one of the finest talents in the NFL, in the middle and move him around, as the Rams do with Marshall Faulk. Need any more help? Feel free to call at any time. 7 - New Orleans Saints Lively quarterback battle here, Jeff Blake vs. last year's surprising rook, Aaron Brooks. I have a feeling that when the season heats up, it'll be Brooks, whose potential is unlimited. Big production from the passing game could put the Saints over the top because the ground attack is anchored by one of the two best run-blocking lines in the business (Denver's is the other one). The defense is good enough, and Jim Haslett has established himself as one of the finest young coaches in football. 8 - Indianapolis Colts I'm not wild about the idea of Edgerrin James skipping the offseason workouts. Run-plugging DT Christian Peter should help their defense, although I'm still not sold on it. What I do like, though, is Peyton Manning, obviously, and a solid O-line, featuring a greatly underrated center, Jeff Saturday. They'll win in the playoffs when the defense catches up to the offense, which is a repeat of what I said in my Mailbag column last week. 9 - New York Giants I'm probably selling last year's NFC champion short. Don't exactly know why. Just a feeling, I guess. Kerry Collins had a better year than anyone expected. A solid defense should be even better with the acquisition of wingman Kenny Holmes and the promotion of tackle Cornelius Griffin to full-time starter. At any rate, I still have them as the fourth-best team in the NFC, which means playoffs. 10 - Philadelphia Eagles Here comes Donovan McNabb. He just kept getting better last year, and in the wild-card playoff against the Bucs he looked like a young Fran Tarkenton, bleeding first downs almost through sheer force of will. The Eagles' big failing? Can't beat the Giants. Haven't done it in the last four seasons. Can this be the year? Maybe. They're young and hungry. But they need the wideouts to come through. 11 - New York Jets Call it instinct, but I think new coach Herman Edwards is going to inject some real zip into this operation. Everyone's excited about the season, No. 1 draft Santana Moss could give them instant field position with his returns. What can go wrong? Testaverde hitting the wall at age 37. Moss failing to really help a receiving corps that's only so-so. But why look for trouble? 12 - Minnesota Vikings Last year all of us, myself included, were predicting a big slide for the Vikes. Untested rookie QB, two Pro Bowl linemen gone, you know the raps. But there they were, deep in the playoffs again. Another notch in Denny Green's gun belt. Well, I've learned my lesson. OK, they lost Smith and Rudd and Randle. I don't care. I'm not going to be trapped into being one of those guys referred to at the end of the season -- "the experts predicted," etc. Somehow they'll be up there. Just don't ask me how. 13 - Miami Dolphins Coach Dave Wannstedt is the only guy sold on QB Jay Fiedler. Everyone wanted him to pick up someone, anyone, to run things, even untried Matt Hasselbeck. Wannstedt remains loyal, despite the fact that Fiedler threw six picks in the two playoff games. Good defense, of course, which is Wannstedt's trademark, and a surprisingly effective running game. If Jay is OK, then the Dolphins will be, too. 14 - Detroit Lions I'm biased because, to be perfectly honest, I've got a rooting interest here. I like the way the new GM, Matt Millen, has approached the job. Straight talk to the players, which has convinced guys like Herman Moore, DT James Jones and LB Allen Aldridge to re-up, even if it meant less money. I think Millen's hand-picked coach, Marty Mornhinweg (am I spelling it right?), will do a good job. It might take another year to rise above the .500 level, but I think the Lions are on the right track. 15 - Jacksonville Jaguars Cap problems, offensive line raked by injuries, these are not things easily overcome. But if the guys upfront can survive, this is a team with some real firepower: Mark Brunell when he's on target, Fred Taylor, the wideouts, Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell. Oops, make that one wideout -- until Smith comes back from his stomach problems. Starting the season with ex-Seahawk Sean Dawkins will be a big dropoff. The defense could be OK if 317-pound No. 1 draft Marcus Stroud holds firm inside. 16 - Buffalo Bills What's with Ralph Wilson? He used to be one of the league's nice guy owners, but now ex-coach Wade Phillips is suing him over money owed, and one of the league's best GMs, John Butler, fled to San Diego after a bitter contract dispute, taking his talented pro personnel guy, A.J. Smith, with him, plus DE Marcellus Wiley and QB Doug Flutie. An organization in turmoil? Well, it looked that way until the Bills hired Gregg Williams, who built that great Tennessee defense, as coach, and ex-Steeler Tom Donahoe as GM. And at least we know the defense, anchored by Sam Cowart, one of the NFL's best inside LBs, will be good. The rest of it? Can't tell yet. 17 - Green Bay Packers Mike Sherman, in his second year as head coach, is now coach/GM. Too much too soon for a guy coming off a 9-7, non-playoff year. He'll find out, once he gets into the bean counting of capanomics. The Pack was middle of the, well, pack, in offense and defense last year. Injuries were a problem. The leading sacker, John Thierry, finished 42nd in the league, so their top pick in the draft went to Jamal Reynolds, an edge rusher. Brett Favre, bothered by a thumb injury, had his second straight rating in the 70s. He hasn't played in the Pro Bowl since the '96 season. A lot has to happen here. Maybe it will. 18 - Pittsburgh Steelers Tired of reading about how this is Kordell Stewart's make-or-break year? Well, me too, but I don't have to read it, just write it, so here's some more. He didn't really have a terrible year, considering that the team drafted wideouts at No. 1 two straight years and got practically nothing out of them. But poor Kordell gets booed at home now, and sooner or later it's got to get to him. The defensive front is new. Levon Kirkland, admittedly on the downside, but still a functional inside backer, is gone, and the defense has carried the offense for as long as I can remember. Not a great situation. 19 - Arizona Cardinals Wow, what courage, picking them ahead of Dallas and the mighty Redskins in the division. But for the first time in years the Cardinals have a superior offensive line, helped greatly by top draft Leonard Davis, a 6-foot-6, 370-pound Goliath who's the real deal, and that, plus a new offensive coordinator, should be the springboard to the resurgence of QB Jake Plummer. The defense? Don't ask. It starts and ends with the guys up front. Bet the over each Sunday. 20 - Seattle Seahawks The Hawks couldn't stop the run, so naturally they had to draft a D-lineman at No. 1, right? Uh, no. They went with Koren Robinson, a receiver with great talent and a flaky attitude, who will catch passes from whom? Oh yeah, from Matt Hasselbeck. (I seem to remember saying the same kind of sarcastic, smirky stuff about Kurt Warner before he was discovered.) OK, let's say that the youngster will be just fine. So how will they stop the run, considering that only their 12th pick in the draft was a defensive lineman? Well, free agency brought them two tackles, Chad Eaton andRandle. Eaton qualifies. Randle does not. He was brought in for "leadership qualities," whatever that means. Ex-Steeler MLB Kirkland could provide some muscle, though, if he doesn't have too much mileage on him. 21 - San Francisco 49ers Jeff Garcia is the best unknown QB in the NFL. He had the top TD-to-interception ratio in football last year, 31-to-10. He broke Steve Young's single-game yardage mark. His problem is that the fans have become spoiled by almost two decades of the precise, laser-like passes of Young and Joe Montana, and Garcia is a little wilder, more wide open. But he's a great competitor and the Niners will achieve success under his direction. But not yet. Too many holes to fill, starting with running back, now that Charlie Garner took his 1,142 yards to Oakland. And of course, on the defense, which is young and vulnerable. 22 - Washington Redskins Start with the offense. Wideouts? The frequently injured Michael Westbrook, possibly helped by a rookie. Line? Minus its stud, Tre' Johnson. Running game? Pro Bowler Stephen Davis minus his top two fullbacks from last year, and the new coach, Marty Schottenheimer loves that ground attack. So QB Jeff George must lead the parade, and I don't think he can, and neither did Schottenheimer when he was a TV analyst last year. Now, of course, he's full of praise. Better defense than we're used to, but, ah, why go on? The franchise is cap-strapped. Bitter times ahead. 23 - Kansas City Chiefs New QB Trent Green is working for his old Rams coach, Dick Vermeil again, but not for the guy who put together that gee-whiz offense, Mike Martz. An interesting prospect. Top receiver Sylvester Morris is lost for the year, and none of the heavy load of free-agent pickups figures to replace him. My favorite import? Bears center Casey Wiegmann, who slips into an O-line that's the most solid part of the team. 24 - Atlanta Falcons I had them penciled in near the bottom, then my southern scout told me that they had 100 percent attendance at their offseason workouts, and there's a great spirit of enthusiasm brewing. OK, so be it. I'll drop one name on you as a guy to watch. Outside linebacker Keith Brooking. Until he was lost in Week 5 he was the best in the league, bar none. Don't see that kind of talent on the other side of the ball, though. 25 - New England Patriots Drew Bledsoe collected the richest contract in history, $103 million (I have trouble even writing a number like that), for the privilege of getting hammered behind a line that is mostly prayer. The Pats have signed a ton of free agents, mostly backup types and none as good as one guy they lost, DT Eaton. 26 - San Diego Chargers I could be very wrong here if Flutie has another one of his miracle years. The only problem is that he has no real, big-league help on offense, unless top draft, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, comes on like a whirlwind. The defense slipped a notch last season. Head coach Mike Riley, coming off a 1-15 season, wanted to interview for the USC job. Ownership said no. But they have a fine GM now, John Butler, so there is a future here. 27 - Carolina Panthers Well, the experiment of bringing in superstar D-linemen Reggie White, Eric Swann and Chuck Smith was a bust, and only the oft-injured Smith remains, and a defense that finished 26th in 1999 slipped to 27th. Steve Beuerlein threw for a lot of yards last season and now he's gone. The job falls to Jeff Lewis, who has thrown 54 passes in the four seasons in which he was active. Why? Ask George Seifert. No one else seems to know. 28 - Cincinnati Bengals Pick one: Jon Kitna, Akili Smith, Scott Mitchell. Hand him the ball and say, "Please be great. Get us out of a 10-year slump." Kitna, the Seattle import, gets first crack. Good luck. 29 - Cleveland Browns I wrestled with the idea of putting them at 28th, one notch ahead of the Bengals. Stay tuned. They could still make it. 30 - Chicago Bears Cade McNown makes up for his inaccuracy on the field by somehow managing to alienate both fans and teammates. Are we dwelling too much on quarterbacks? Perhaps. MLB Brian Urlacher was my rookie of the year in 2000. Which lucky team will get him in four years, when he becomes a free agent? 31 - Dallas Cowboys With everything collapsing around them, they devoted their top draft pick to a marginal QB, Quincy Carter, to some day replace Tony Banks, who has replaced Troy Aikman. Well, I guess Emmitt will still get his yards, but not as many as what should be the worst run defense in football will give up.

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