Vegas may not agree, but the Patriots jump to No. 1
Posted: Tuesday September 10, 2002 6:38 PM
The most feared scenario took place. My top three teams in Sports Illustrated's NFL Preview Issue all lost, my bottom three won. What one must guard against in these situations is the urge to panic, to make wholesale and sweeping changes, and then, of course, have to make them again the following week, thus creating chaos.
But changes must be made, and I'm man enough to admit that perhaps -- how can I put this? -- perhaps I didn't, uh, exactly have some teams figured correctly before the first ball was snapped. So you will see some minor adjustments, such as dropping the Bucs 16 places or raising New Orleans 11. I have managed to preserve the unity of the win-lose syndrome; in other words, the team that beat the other team will get the higher ranking, at least for now.
When you send in your angry e-mails, please hold back on reminding me about the clubs that so far, after one game, have failed to justify my early evaluations. No one knows it better than I do. Besides, even the smart guys in Vegas can make big errors. I mean, putting the season victories over/under number at 8 1/2 for the Patriots ... wouldn't you like to get in on that now?
Dr. Z's Power Rankings
Rank
LW
Team
1
4
New England Patriots They're better than they were last year, thanks to their new wideouts, Donald Hayes and Deion Branch, and three, count 'em, new tight ends.
2
14
Denver Broncos I'm still trying to figure out why I had them ranked so low, preseason. What impressed me most in their game against St. Louis? The speed of their linebackers, playing the short zones and putting on a rush when they had to. They held Kurt Warner to under 10 yards per completion, better than three yards fewer than New England did in the Super Bowl.
3
6
Green Bay Packers They hit the weekend's high number for offensive yards (484), playing against a 3-4 defense they very rarely see. OK, they're still trying to catch Michael Vick, but he's gonna do that to a lot of teams this year.
4
1
St. Louis Rams Am I ready to give up on my predicted Super Bowl champ after one game? What do you take me for? But I wouldn't mind seeing a little better offensive line play, or a more imaginative pass-rush scheme.
5
5
San Francisco 49ers One may argue that their showing against the Giants in the Thursday night curtain raiser was less than inspiring, but the important thing is that they survived a very tough situation, a road opener at night in front of a hostile crowd, which for New Jersey is redundant. Everybody's hostile here.
6
10
Tennessee Titans They came back from 11 down in the fourth quarter against Philly, a tough defensive team, and got the win. Say, how'd you like the work of their rookie pass-rusher, Carlos Hall, giving away 100 pounds to Tra Thomas and still collecting three sacks?
7
9
Miami Dolphins We were all expecting a gee-whiz-and-away-we-go offense from Norv Turner. Instead, he buttons it up and keeps it on the ground, and his tight end and fullback catch more balls (eight) than all his wideouts combined (six). It's called versatility.
8
11
Oakland Raiders They took the Seahawks apart in rather brutal fashion, whipped them on the ground, held them to an NFL Week 1 low of 186 total yards. I probably should have them higher, but I can't get away from this age thing. Here are two stats to consider: Charlie Garner -- 64 yards on five pass receptions. Tim Brown and Jerry Rice, combined -- 71 on six.
9
7
Chicago Bears The Vikings were the better team Sunday, and I probably should have them closer together, or, if I had real courage, rank the Vikings ahead in the standings. It was a freaky kind of day, with everyone melting in the Champaign, Ill., heat, but what I came away with was the idea that Jim Miller is finally getting things accomplished downfield. The lack of this aspect of his game hurt the Bears last season.
10
2
Pittsburgh Steelers They didn't fold when Kordell threw the two early picks. What did them in was Brady's accuracy and proficiency in running the hurry-up, plus a subpar Jerome Bettis. Anyone think Bettis was running OK? Take a look at some footage of when he was the real Bus. I wonder how long it'll take for him to be 100 percent again, or will it be a 2001 Eddie George situation? Amos Zereoue is OK as a change of pace, and, oh boy, here we go, the spelling bee ... Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala is just a big guy who gets tackled a lot. I hate to ride with the party line, but the Bus must start to motor.
11
8
Philadelphia Eagles They still seem as if they were in the preseason, a middle-of-the-road playoff club that didn't spend the money to pick up a few blue chippers who could have moved them up to the next level.
12
12
Indianapolis Colts We have now left the elite category and drifted into Phase Two of the rankings. The Colts' offense is functional but they gave up too many points and yards to the Jaguars. On the upside, their best linebacker, Mike Peterson, seems healthy again.
13
13
New York Jets Sure, you could say they won on a fluke -- two kickoff returns for TDs -- but they moved the ball and hung in without their best player, Curtis Martin. What's worrisome is the way the Bills' offensive line shoved them around, but Buffalo always seems to get a running game going against the Jets.
14
25
New Orleans Saints Frankly, I don't know what to make of this team. I didn't much like them, preseason, for many reasons, few of which held up in their Tampa Bay outing. I guess I went most wrong in my evaluation of Deuce McAllister as a guy who couldn't carry a running game. Thirty-one carries for 109 yards is a powerful argument. Admitting you're wrong is like a sedative. A little bit might be OK to get you into a comfort zone, but you can get hooked on it, too, and then you have a problem. But, then again, I can't stand people who never admit they're wrong, and, unfortunately, we've got one of them in the White House.
15
18
Washington Redskins I can see it now. I'm gonna be battling Skins e-mailers all season long, fans who believe that I'm still keying into my long-standing animosity toward the owner, or maybe overreacting against the Spurrier hype. These are both valid criticisms, but I'll tell you what. If the Skins keep winning, I'll keep raising them my rankings until, who knows, they might even crack the top 13 or so.
16
19
Atlanta Falcons Nice work up there in Green Bay. Well, at least offensively. This is a team that's been crafted for artificial turf, but on the grass at Lambeau its offense averaged almost seven yards a play, a very high number. The Bears, traveling to the Dome on Sunday, could run into a buzz saw.
17
22
Minnesota Vikings Refer, please, to No. 9, Bears, to collect my apology. I'll argue both sides for you: Gee, I did lift them five spots this week. Yeah, but you had them way too low to start with. Memo to Vikings fans and e-mailers. Give me another week, OK? I picked Buffalo to upset them, but if they win in convincing fashion they'll get a fair shake in next week's rankings. This I swear to you.
18
16
Buffalo Bills Drew Bledsoe is not one to snap off a quick, zippy pass from a three-step drop. He stands in the pocket tall and firm, like Abe Lincoln, and around him there is turmoil and people are clutching at his jersey and calling him unprintable names, and he treats them with the utmost disdain, and finally the ball leaves his hand and finds a receiver just as the receiver reaches the open spot. Bledsoe did this twice against the Jets, on fourth down, as he led his team on a heroic, tying drive in the game's final moments. His TD pass came on fourth and nine, and I can't think of many QBs who could have made that throw to Eric Moulds in that situation. And yet, there were too many pass-rushers around him. Is it asking too much, for the O-linemen to hold their blocks for that extra second? I don't know. This is a situation that will play out over the next 15 games, but right now, I'd say that the Bills got their full money's worth out of the Bledsoe trade.
19
3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Say what you want about the Gruden magic, I don't like what I see in Brad Johnson. He looks like he's regressed since the days when he worked with Brian Billick in Minnesota. He looks more like a survivor than an action QB. Add to that the fact that the Saints shoved the Bucs' defense around for the whole first half Sunday and you have a shaky situation. But it's only a one-game situation, right? It could be a wake-up call. It could be something deeper. I could be slim if I stopped eating. You never know.
20
17
New York Giants Now Tiki Barber has a bad toe. Who else can they give the ball to? Ron Dayne? Fine, if you're into two-yard gains. Sean Bennett, making a comeback after missing two seasons with injuries? Their new offensive line had problems with the 49ers. On the plus side, Amani Toomer looks like he could be the first Pro Bowl wideout for the Giants since ... since ... you're not gonna believe this ... since Homer Jones in 1968.
21
26
Kansas City Chiefs I'll do this quickly. Gained 470 yards against the Browns. Should be ranked higher. Aren't for some reason. Sorry. Will fix this later. Mail your complaints to Jimmy, marked Personal.
22
21
Cleveland Browns Butch Davis is a defensive coach. So where's the defense? I'll bet you're waiting for me to say something about the Dwayne Rudd play. Oh I will, I will, but in Wednesday's column. This is what is known as a "tease."
23
30
San Diego Chargers All during the offseason I've heard people picking the Chargers as their sleeper team that's gonna rise from the ashes. I didn't pay attention. I was too busy touting Dallas. "Stop writing so much about wine and restaurants and pay more attention," was the Flaming Redhead's admonition. Is anybody on my side?
24
31
Houston Texans Dom Capers' zone blitz, plus the defensive personnel to make it work, are what raise this team seven notches on my chart. Before we get all giddy, take a look at the offensive stats.
25
24
Jacksonville Jaguars Tom Coughlin is ready to implode. He doesn't get along with his QB. When his return man fumbled a punt, the coach followed him over to the bench and raged at him. Some people don't like Tom, but I feel sorry for him, just as I did for Jim Mora last year. It's a wicked business.
26
15
Dallas Cowboys Now they're yelling for Chad Hutchinson, the guy who got big Cowboys dough for playing baseball the last four years. When he falters they'll be yelling for Clint Stoerner. Then they'll try to drag Roger Staubach out of retirement. Where are you, Eddie LeBaron? What will break this train of loony musings (loosings?) is if Hutchinson steps in and is absolutely brilliant. Then your faithful narrator will be a footnote to history, as are the people who wrote smirking things about Kurt Warner. Frankly, I don't think this will happen.
27
20
Seattle Seahawks Someday I'd like to sit down with Trent Dilfer over a beer and ask him, "So Trent, how does it feel to have the fans praying for your quick return -- after all you've been through?" If he's statistically minded, he'll point out that at least he'll average better than Matt Hasselbeck's 6.7 yards per completion last Sunday, a number that epitomizes the supposed West Coast Offense at its worst.
28
23
Cincinnati Bengals During the exhibition season, when they were gaining more yards than any other team, offensive line coach Paul Alexander said, "This is the best line I've had. This is the line I've waited my life for." Fade out and cut to the stat chart for the San Diego game. A rushing total of 36 yards and a 2.8 average, four sacks, many more hurries, an injured quarterback. Will people ever learn that exhibition games mean zero, zilch, nada?
29
32
Carolina Panthers Down at this level of the chart we tend to get goofy. What's running through my mind, and I can't clear it away, is the thought that we have just begun the Aesop's Fable titled the Fox and the Peppers.
30
27
Arizona Cardinals One of the nicest guys in the business is Dave McGinnis, the coach. They won't get him the players. They can't sign their No.1 draft choice. It's not fair.
31
29
Baltimore Ravens Vegas' over/under number on Ravens' victories was 7 1/2, exactly one less than what was assigned to the Patriots. And those guys are supposed to be geniuses, right?
32
28
Detroit Lions Will it be Harrington or McMahon? Is this a quarterback controversy? Does anyone outside the state of Michigan care?
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