Raiders remain No. 1, but not without a gloomy forecast
Posted: Wednesday October 09, 2002 2:20 PM
The biggest cliché in football is "wild and wacky season." As if that explains everything. I hear it every year. Upsets always happen. Logic does not always follow. The trick is to figure out why all this happens and then act accordingly in the area of handicapping games and ranking teams. Unfortunately I have not yet mastered these skills, but I'm working on it. The only observation I can offer at this time is that late in the season, when you look back on some of these upsets, they are not really upsets at all. It's just that people had the teams figured wrong. I've just re-read this overstuffed paragraph, and you know something? I'm bored silly. Enough pontificating and on to the subject so dear to the hearts of the ROA, otherwise knows as the Rippers Of America, i.e., the Power Rankings:
Dr. Z's Power Rankings
Rank
LW
Team
1
1
Oakland Raiders (4-0) Think I can't find anything negative to say? You don't know me very well. The Titans filed a complaint with the league that Oakland was illegally running offensive players on and off the field between snaps. The Raiders have been told not to do it anymore. The very idea. Shocking, I call it.
2
5
Denver Broncos (4-1) Their defense hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 19 straight games and now Ricky Williams is coming in for Sunday's Star Wars clash. My prediction -- he won't get his century.
3
6
Miami Dolphins (4-1) I'll give you a name of a sleeper, oh boy is this a name -- Adewale Ogunleye. There's an intriguing story here. Let me light my pipe and I'll tell it to you. In the spring of 1769, as Captain Cook was rounding the Cape of Good Hope, a strange craft was sighted off the South African coast. OK, OK, just having a little fun. Ogunleye is the bookend pass rusher to Jason Taylor, the uncharted element in a pass rush that destroyed the Patriots last week. To me, the whole Miami operation is keyed to a serious rush. And from the Dolphins' press book, under "Fins Fact," I learned this about the third-year former free agent: "Adewale's paternal grandfather was a governor of the Nigerian province of Ohio State ..." Make that Ondo State. Will this foolishness never cease?
4
7
New Orleans Saints (4-1) Yeah, I guess that sooner or later I have to get around to mentioning an NFC club. At this point no one can agree on who's gonna represent that conference in the Super Bowl. Saints? Bucs? Packers? Niners? Someone who'll come charging up on a white horse in December, as the Falcons and then the Giants did not so long ago? That's what makes it fun.
5
8
Green Bay Packers (4-1) I cringe when Green Bay's in a Monday night game because I know that I'm going to see at least 18 features on how much fun Brett Favre is having and how he's just a little boy at heart, ad naus. Hey, it wasn't fun when he got wiped out on that corner blitz, and he was the first to confirm it. And it wasn't fun for the Bears, who thought they could defense him without a rush. I read somewhere -- uh, I guess it was here -- that the Packers defense was struggling. Nope, not on Monday night. Getting their rush-specialist, KGB, back was a biggie.
6
9
San Francisco 49ers (3-1) I have the St. Looie game on tape but I haven't watched it yet. My scout in Frisco -- oops, can't say that -- my scout in the Bay Area reports that the Niners opened in a man defense, dropping their linebackers into the hook zones to cut off Faulk, then they switched to a zone, then they mixed it up. This tells me zero. I'll see for myself and bring you up to date in a subsequent notes column.
7
19
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) They beat the Eagles fair and square; I mean, they were the better team, and in good conscience I can't rate them lower than Philly. But I still think the Eagles are pretty good, so what's left for me? Only to lift the Jags a rather gaudy 12 spots and get them up here amongst the elite -- where they might stay for a while; just look at their schedule. They have only two remaining games against teams that have a winning record at this point -- the Giants on Nov. 4 and Indianapolis on Dec. 29.
8
2
Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) A game like the one in the Jacksonville sweatbox takes an awful lot out of you, and I'm sure that Andy Reid feels that this week's bye comes at exactly the right time. Then it's a home contest against the Bucs, who are furious because they're one spot lower than Philly on the Zmobile chart.
9
11
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-1) I think that what has happened here is that the defense, which has been somewhat dormant for a while, now realizes that it has a coherent offense to lend balance to the operation, and so it's regaining its old ferocity. Statistics -- four defensive TDs scored, two TDs allowed in the last four contests. "We have some deadly bullets on this team," says you-know-who. Warren Sapp, of course, the human quote machine.
10
4
San Diego Chargers (4-1) The Broncos blunted their pass rush, and what was revealed was a very soft zone with way too many holes. Which gave Brian Griese a near-career day and offensive coordinators around the league a lot to work with.
11
3
New England Patriots (3-2) Ricky Williams did not beat them, as you might have read. He went over 100, but averaged 2.9 yards a carry and most of his yards came late. No, they did a decent job swarming him, but Miami exposed the Patriots' offensive line and rendered their attack helpless. I don't think the juggling act and constant position switches among their middle three of Woody, Compton and Andruzzi, with Ruegamer filling in, has helped anything, but actually it was their tackles who got ripped by the Dolphins. So where are we? I have a feeling that they'll get back to the run against Green Bay Sunday and stay with it stubbornly and use it as a springboard for Tom Brady's passing.
12
10
Buffalo Bills (2-3) I haven't lost faith in this team, despite the losing record. They had just lost the lead and were driving on the Raiders in the fourth period when Buchanon took a pick back all the way and broke the game. It happens. Don't give up, you people in the northland, because pretty soon everything will be frozen over and what will be left for you but misery?
13
14
Kansas City Chiefs (3-2) After five games I'd say that Priest Holmes would be my choice for MVP in the league. And this is a guy who was given up on by one team. But so was Faulk. And Williams. And a whole bunch of other people. Reminds me of the time I went back to my old high school and, in confidence, was shown my advisor's report on me in my senior year. "Decent athlete, but otherwise an average individual in every regard." Just think of the venom that went into that sentence. Not an average student, an average individual, doomed to a life of mediocrity. And just to make sure there was absolutely no hope, the vicious "in every regard," was added. Hey, I've just supplied fuel for about 500 of you rippers out there.
14
20
Arizona Cardinals (3-2) Why is it that when I see, in my old man's cynicism, a coach clapping his hands and giving it the old "Let's go, gang!" none of it ever rings true -- except when I see Arizona's Dave McGinnis doing it. This is a genuinely good guy whom I would have loved to have played for once upon a time.
15
16
Indianapolis Colts (3-1) Everything was going just hunky dory and then the Bengals made a run at them and nearly tied the game and wound up with their season's high for yardage. So it's back to the old hand-wringing and "Will this defense ever be fixed?"
16
13
Carolina Panthers (3-2) Sadly, Rodney Peete is coming down to earth, as we figured he would. But what has happened to the defense, which allowed Arizona 162 yards in the fourth quarter? Desert heat, you could say, except that the game was at home, and the only desert you find in Charlotte is when you look for a good restaurant.
17
22
Washington Redskins (2-2) A Steve Spurrier quote, after his rookie QB, Patrick Ramsey, lit it up against the Titans: "We don't have to write about who's gonna play quarterback for a while." That's all it takes, huh? One game? Wish my life were that easy.
18
26
Baltimore Ravens (2-2) I guess I just don't understand this thing with quarterbacks these days. Chris Redman looked very shaky against the Broncos, even in a winning game. And very competent and poised against the Browns. What's up? Second question about the Ravens -- how bad is Ray Lewis' shoulder? I mean, how bad is it really, not what they're saying? Third question -- how will the defense react if he can't go at Indy? That's a lot of questions from someone who's supposedly here to answer them.
19
23
New York Giants (3-2) Here's my favorite quote of the season, and it comes from Tiki Barber, and it refers to the inspirational talk defensive tackle Keith Hamilton gave to the team at the hotel Saturday night before they beat the Cowboys: "He called us all out, to a person ... but he couldn't remember Rosie's name." That would be offensive right tackle Mike Rosenthal. OK, Barber, are you ready? And you, Dayne? And you, too, over there, whatever your name is?
20
12
Chicago Bears (2-3) Favre drills the ball 85 yards to Donald Driver. Miller counters with a six-yard hitch to Marty Booker. And in this manner they hope to compete. And now a really good young O-lineman, Rex Tucker, is out with a dislocated ankle. Well, they have the bye coming up, and then their next two opponents are Detroit and Minnesota, so they could get themselves back together. But right now they're in trouble.
21
15
Cleveland Browns (2-3) I've never been a fan of the Dawg Pound. Seeing shots of wild-eyed, maniac fans, reminds me too much of the newsreel films of the old Hitler rallies. And then those beloved Browns fans, who are used in so many promotions to help sell T-shirts, cheer when their quarterback, Tim Couch, suffers a concussion, fans who have been stoked all week by the coach, Butch Davis, exhorting them to come on out and really be loud. To me this is the ugly aspect of sports, and I know I'm being old-fashioned and rather stodgy, but I can't help it. I just hate it. The vox populi is not my vox.
22
18
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3) It's a simple call here. I don't care who the quarterback is, when the other team (Saints) scores on seven of its first eight possessions, you'd better put a defense on the field or forget it.
23
21
Dallas Cowboys (2-3) Quincy Carter overthrows a wide-open Antonio Bryant on a pass that could have pulled out the Giants game, and then they'd be 3-2 and tied for the division lead and everyone would be talking playoffs. It's that elusive in the NFL, that marginal, which is why I believe that coaches earn every penny they're paid.
24
17
Atlanta Falcons (1-3) Weeb Ewbank hated scrambling quarterbacks. He used to call them "scatter guys." He'd grumble ... "Scatter guys! They scatter around until someone takes 'em out in a basket." Now Michael Vick wears a heavy wrap on his shoulder and no one knows how long he'll be out. Against the Bucs he got, and you should pardon the expression, a crash course in the wisdom of throwing the ball away.
25
24
St. Louis Rams (0-5) I went back to the books and looked up the record for worst won-lost following an appearance in a Super Bowl or championship game. Post-Super Bowl -- tie at 5-11 between Atlanta in '99 and Denver in '90, although the '82 Niners were 3-6 in a strike-shortened season. Post-championship -- the 1964 Giants, who ended up 2-10-2.
26
25
Tennessee Titans (1-4) Their best receiver, and one of the league's most underrated, Derrick Mason, is hurt. Kevin Dyson, who was supposed to pick up the slack, dropped three balls against the Skins. Eddie George is nowhere. Steve McNair has thrown seven picks in the last two games. Frank Wycheck lost the ball on a fumble Sunday and his range is getting shorter and shorter. Defensively, quarterbacks such as Patrick Ramsey and Quincy Carter and Tim Couch have had career days against them, and none of them would be considered Hall of Fame material, at least not right now. The overall rating of enemy passers for the season is 107.5. Aside from that, everything's just fine.
27
27
Detroit Lions (1-3) They hold their position after the bye, which is what you'll be hearing a lot from now on because last week's byes came only to the bottom feeders.
28
28
Seattle Seahawks (1-3) Ditto. I'm curious to see if Monday Night Madness can give them a home victory over the Niners, a team that should be able to beat them on any other gridiron.
29
29
New York Jets (1-4) Another quarterback, Chad Pennington, emerges from the cave and brings a smile to everyone's face, except for the guys on defense, who gave up 504 yards to the Chiefs.
30
30
Houston Texans (1-3) Coming off a bye. Two weeks for Dom Capers to get his zone blitz package ready for Drew Bledsoe and the Bills. An interesting game that won't be as cut and dried as it looks.
31
32
Cincinnati Bengals (0-5) Due deliberation and a late rush at the Colts lift them from the cellar. Hold a mirror under their noses and you'll see some faint signs of breathing.
32
31
Minnesota Vikings (0-4) I think they'll lose, at home, to Detroit. Depends on who wants it more. Or less.
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