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High on Broncos
Mike Shanahan is a difference-maker. Donald Miralle/Getty Images |
By Don Banks
When I survey the morass of mediocrity/parity that is today's AFC, where 13 of the conference's 16 teams are bunched in the five-to-seven-win club, I keep coming back to the notion that my first instinct was my best instinct: That the Broncos are the team to beat.
I picked Denver to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this season, and despite some bumps in the road -- namely that thorough butt-whipping that visiting Oakland laid on a flat Broncos squad about 10 days ago -- I see no reason to abandon ship while Denver remains tied for the conference's best record at 7-3.
The Broncos have a number of things going for them that aren't likely to change in the coming six weeks. First and foremost, they have the AFC's best head coach in Mike Shanahan. Say what you will about the man they call the Mastermind, Shanahan has had just one losing season in his seven full years in Denver, and his two Super Bowl rings are only one fewer than the combined total won by his fellow AFC head coaches.
When crunch time arrives, I trust Shanahan's ability to give his team an edge in the man-on-man battle of matching wits against the opposing sideline. And despite his recent loss to Oakland, the team I expect to challenge Denver for the AFC's top seed, nobody has been better at beating the Raiders than Shanahan, who's now 12-3 against his former employer. The rematch is Dec. 22 at Oakland.
Secondly, the Broncos are the AFC's version of the Packers, in that they own the conference's most distinct home-field advantage. Yes, I know Denver is just 3-2 at home this season, and has lost its last two games at INVESCO. But that still makes the Broncos a gaudy 48-13 (.787) at home in the Shanahan era.
Between the cold and crowd noise, nobody in the AFC wants it to come down to having to test that Mile High magic in the dead of January, with a Super Bowl trip on the line.
Lastly, the Broncos have better balance than any other AFC contender. Denver is ranked fifth on offense, and second in terms of total defense. It can beat you running the ball with its No. 8-ranked ground game, led by rookie Clinton Portis, or go up top when need be, relying on Rod Smith and its No. 9-ranked passing game.
And no team has a better veteran backup quarterback than Steve Beuerlein, who will replace injured starter Brian Griese for the time being. Don't worry about a drop-off. The Broncos may even wind up playing more effectively behind the steadier Beuerlein.
But most of the improvement in Denver this year has been on defense, where the Broncos have limited opponents to a league-low 67.2 yards rushing per game -- 25 yards fewer than No. 2-ranked Miami. Even in this era of pass-happy offenses, stout rushing defense usually pays huge dividends when the weather turns winterish and the passing game becomes riskier.
Add it all up, and I still like Denver's chances to be the AFC's last team standing. Like I first thought.
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Just win, Raiders
It's all about home-field advantage. Tom Hauck/Getty Images |
By Peter King
Ten reasons why the Raiders are the team to beat right now (hey, you have say "right now"; things in the NFL change every 25 minutes) in the AFC:
1. In Rich Gannon I Trust. He's the most underrated player of this era. In the past two games, games the Raiders had to have, Gannon has been ridiculously good --79 percent completions, 649 yards -- as the Raiders beat Denver and New England by a combined 31 points.
2. Quality Losses. Yes, they've lost four of 10 games. But the losses came at sleeping-giant St. Louis, now one of the NFL's three or four scariest teams to play; 27-21 in OT to San Diego; at the nuthouse of Arrowhead, when they were totally discombobulated on offense; and in OT to San Francisco, when the 49ers, thanks to the overtime coin flip, ran the game's final 28 plays covering 15:01. Not a gimme game in the lot.
3. The Revived Defense. Those guys just got in Tom Brady's face all night Sunday. And they prevented the Patriots from doing what the Patriots do better than anyone: Throw the screen until the cows come home. Bill Romanowski, Rod Woodson and John Parrella look about a decade younger than their birth certificates say they are. I like the fact their rush defense is now respectable, allowing 3.8 yards per play.
4. The Schedule is Marginally Good. I hate the road trip to San Diego and Miami Dec. 8 and 15, but the other games are manageable: at Arizona this week and the Jets, Chiefs and Broncos at home. In the AFC, 10-6 gets you at least a wild card this year and 11-5 could get you all the way to home field through the playoffs.
5. The Veteran Factor. Gannon. Rice. Brown. Romanowski. Woodson. You think these guys are going to let the Raiders lose in January in a non-tuck game?
6. Jerry Porter is a Force. Fourteen yards a catch, six TDs. The deep threat James Jett never became.
7. Bill Callahan Pushes the Right Buttons. He was best-known last year as Jon Gruden's alter ego. He's best-known now as the guy who stays off TV (the players like that), never strays too far from his even-keel self, and has a balanced offensive plan centered around a QB who he can trust to throw short and intermediate stuff better than anyone in football right now.
8. Very Fresh Running Backs. For some reason, Charlie Garner's middle name is Mothballs this year. Averaging just 10.1 carries a game, with his battering-ram backup, Tyrone Wheatley, running it four times a week. When needed, they'll have September legs.
9. The Best Home-Field Advantage Come January. If these guys are home for the playoffs, Lord help the visitor. Besides being loud, this place is intimidating enough in the regular season. Imagine a January game or two here.
10a. They Won't Have a Road Game in Foxboro. Probably.
10b. The League Would Never Assign Walt Coleman to Ref a Raider Playoff Game. Probably.
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