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Dr. Z's AFC Championship Matchups
Posted: Wednesday January 19, 2000 05:36 PM
Sports Illustrated NFL guru Dr. Z analyzes the AFC Championship game matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans, explains which team has the edge at each position and forecasts the outcome.
Matchups: Offense | Defense | Special Teams
Coaching | Forecast | NFC Championship Game
| OFFENSE | | Jaguars | | Titans |
| Jimmy Smith (82): Phased out of the offense for a while when Tom Coughlin
was in his dink-and-dunk mode. Everyone screamed, so the Jags' top deep threat
was resurrected, with impressive results. Most catches in the NFL this year.
| WR
 | Kevin Dyson (87): Invisible until he won the Buffalo playoff game on
"Return Freak Left." Has never really seemed in sync with his
quarterback. |
| Ben Coleman (62): Moved one spot over from LG when Tony Boselli was lost.
Decent drive blocker. Not too mobile. | LT
 | Brad Hopkins (72): Good feet. Good on the move. Mans the quick side of the
Titans'
O-line. |
| Rick Tylski (76): Used to be a regular at RG but lost his job to Rams import
Zach Wiegert. Now he's in Coleman's spot. Workhorse type. | LG
| Bruce Matthews (74): Old and smart. Makes up for whatever speed he's
lost by playing the angles. Won't be
overpowered.
|
| John Wade (66): Terrific college center (Marshall) who's still feeling his
way. D-line stunts and schemes are often aimed at
him. | C
 | Kevin Long (60): Young second-year pro who has come along fast. Works well
in the overall run
concept.
|
| Zach Wiegert (77): Better than he was in St. Louis but still shaky on his
pass
blocks. | RG
| Benji Olson (75) Really has come along in the run game. Had a terrific day
against the
Colts.
|
| Leon Searcy (72): Dynamic at one time and still a Pro Bowler, but has slowed
down.
| RT
| Jon Runyan (69): Big (6' 7", 320-pound) musher who's
effective blocking down on the power side. Will give up the
sack. |
| Kyle Brady (80): Ex-Jet who's value is as a blocker. Will catch the seam
pass when the defense forgets about
him. | TE
| Frank Wycheck (89): Steve McNair's bail-out receiver. Playing with a bad
knee. Moves to H-Back when Jackie Harris (88) is in in the two-TE
set. |
| Mark Brunell (8): Unhappy for a while when the offense buttoned it up. An
action guy who likes to push the ball downfield. Fingers crossed on the bad
knee. | QB
| Steve McNair (9): Five TDs vs. Jags last trip. Then they turned the switch
to the off position and watched him hand the ball to
George. |
| Fred Taylor (28): Dazzler who lifts the offense when he's healthy. Fine
speed. | RB
| Eddie George (27): Sock-it-to-'em runner with moves. A gathering force.
Won't tire out. |
| Daimon Shelton (31): Huge blocker who'll get the ball occasionally in the
flat. Gives way to Damon Jones (88) in the two-TE
set. | FB
| Lorenzo Neal (41): Seen little action. Titans' offense is more two-TE with
Harris or three wideouts with Chris Sanders
(81). |
| Keenan McCardell (87): An enigma. Will make the tough catch in traffic but
will drop the ball, too. Can be an effective possession receiver. | WR
| Yancey Thigpen (82): Was supposed to be the long-ball threat, but it hasn't
happened. O.K. in medium range, when they remember
him.
|
| CONSENSUS |
| Tennessee 5-4-2, but the Jags have the edge in the skill
department. |
| DEFENSE | | Jaguars | | Titans |
| Renaldo Wynn (97): Plays the run, then gives way to Joel Smeenge, (99)
who's more effective in all
phases.
| LE
| Jevon Kearse (90): Will spot up and down the line at all positions. Great
speed and pursuit ability. Can create havoc, especially on his pass rush. Jags
will run at
him. |
| Gary Walker (96): Active and sturdy. Ex-Oiler (no, they weren't the Titans
then) who has firmed up the run defense.
| LT
| Josh Evans (91): Pass rush
specialist who shares time with John Thornton (78) and occasionally Joe Salave'a
(95). |
| Seth Payne (91): Battled injuries last year. Lifted the level of his game
this season to match the talent around
him. | RT
| Jason Fisk (97): Terrific pick-up from the Vikings. Originally considered a
plugger, nothing more, but he'll collapse the pocket,
too.
|
| Tony Brackens (90): The Kearse counterpart. Skilled pass-rusher.
Inconsistent in the past, but he was playing at an All-Pro level until he hit a
minor late-season
slump. | RE
| Henry Ford (92) or Kenny Holmes (99): They split the work. Holmes is more
active as a rusher, Ford is better vs. the
run.
|
| Bryce Paup (95): Seldom gets in the pass rush, as he did in the old days.
Limited by torn chest muscle. Comes out in the
nickel. | SL
| Eddie Robinson (55) Will go weakside, too, or line up as a double-OLB in
Jeff Fisher's 46-defense. Active and highly emotional. Over-commits at
times.
|
| Lonnie Marts (56): A big improvement over the guys he replaced. First year
playing inside. Sound vs. the run. Can make big
plays.
| ML
| Barron Wortham (52): Pure plugger with limited coverage responsibility.
Replaced by Dainon Sidney in the
nickel. |
| Kevin Hardy (51): Dom Capers moved him over from the strong side and he's
rewarded Capers with a Pro Bowl
year. | WL
| Joe Bowden (58): Like Robinson, he can pop up anywhere. Mop-up man. Good
ball
hound. |
| Fernando Bryant (25): Dynamic rookie who will be one of the league's
superstars. Thrives on man coverage. | LC
| Denard Walker (25): Really came on
against the Colts. Fine job hanging with Marvin
Harrison. |
| Donovin Darius (20): Big hitter with decent, but not great,
range. | SS
| Blaine Bishop (23): Best defensive player on the field in the Colts game.
Coverage, big hits at the line, you name it. |
| Carnell Lake (37): Has done it all in his career. Strong safety-linebacker
type, cornerback in man coverage; now the brains of the outfit.
| FS
| Marcus Robertson (31): At one time close to the best in the business. Has
been battling injuries this
season.
|
| Aaron Beasley (21): Opportunistic ball-hawker. Emotional, with big-play
capability. | RC
| Samari Rolle (21): Will come up with key plays, but
will over-commit at times, too. |
| CONSENSUS |
| JACKSONVILLE 6-4-1. Capers' scheme makes it even
tougher. |
| SPECIAL TEAMS | | Jaguars | | Titans |
| The Jags' Bryan Barker is a master at placing the ball out of bounds near the goal line, but an occasional
line-drive, low-hang-time punter when backed up.
| Kicking
| I give the Titans kicker, Al Del Greco, a slight edge over the Jags' Mike
Hollis. Ditto Tennessee punter Craig Hentrich, who has had a terrific playoff
series and can boom 'em and get 'em to sit. |
| Coverage units are about even ... | Coverage
| ... but if I have to pick one standout it would be the Titans' Anthony
Dorsett. |
| COACHING | | Jaguars | | Titans |
| Jacksonville gets the edge, thanks to Capers' defense. | Coaching
| But there's something haunting about the way the Jeff Fisher seems to squeeze out the must-win
games.
|
| FORECAST | | The Titans whipped the Jaguars to a fare-thee-well last time out. Tennessee took
the first meeting by a point, played in a rainstorm. A Brunell low point, with
three picks, the last one in the end zone when he forced the ball into
double-coverage after Tom Coughlin shunned what could have been the tying field
goal.
O.K., I say the Jaguars take this one, if (and here come the parade of
ifs): Brunell's knee holds up, Taylor is functional for the entire contest and
they approach it the same way they approached the Miami massacre.
But Tennessee is an odd, never-say-die team, and, as you can see by the match-ups, not too
shabby in the talent department, either. I just don't like the way McNair is protected in that dinky-dunky passing game.
At this level of competition, you've got to be able to open it up. Don't you?
DON'T YOU?
| |
My Prediction: Jacksonville 24, Tennessee 20. |
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