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Dr. Z's NFC Championship Matchups
Posted: Wednesday January 19, 2000 08:35 PM
Sports Illustrated NFL guru Dr. Z analyzes the NFC Championship game matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the St. Louis Rams, explains which team has the edge at each position and forecasts the outcome.
Matchups: Offense | Defense | Special Teams
Coaching | Forecast | AFC Championship Game
| OFFENSE | | Rams | | Buccaneers |
| Torry Holt (88): Memo to the Bucs' defensive coaching staff: Don't neglect
this guy. His regular-season per-catch average of 15.2 was better than that of
deep burner Isaac Bruce (15.1).
| WR
 | Bert Emanuel (87): A far cry from the days when he tore 'em up at Atlanta.
His game has gone south --
literally.
|
| Orlando Pace (76): Made his reputation as a pancake blocker at Ohio State,
but NFL defensive ends don't seem to flatten out the same way. O.K. blocking
down for the run. Decent pass blocker. Not an All-Pro, in my
estimation. | LT
| Pete Pierson (69): Willing worker who took over when Paul Gruber was lost.
Had a very rough time with the Skins' Marco
Coleman. |
| Tom Nutten (61): Smart, tough, good on the move. Good blocker on the screens
to Marshall Faulk, who actually would prefer just to have people get out of the
way. | LG
| Kevin Dogins (65): Better on the move than at the point. Displaced Jorge Diaz
(64), who will occasionally replace him for a
series.
|
| Mike Gruttadauria (60): Overachieving free agent who continues to hold off
the challenge of high draft pick Ryan Tucker. | C
 | Tony Mayberry (61): Proud, 10-year veteran who's been playing hurt and trying
to hold the patchwork O-line together.
|
| Adam Timmerman (62): Ex-Packer who gave the unit just what it needed, a
seasoned pro with experience at the Super Bowl
level. | RG
| Frank Middleton (73) There are times when this 334-pound monster simply
wipes 'em out, clearing the way for Mike Alstott or Warrick Dunn, but I've seen
him struggle against pass-rush schemes,
too.
|
| Fred Miller (73): Weakest member of the front five. Can get fluttery if
things aren't going his way.
| RT
| Jerry Wunsch (71): Effective keying the run
late in games, when people get tired of his 339 pounds leaning on
them. |
| Roland Williams (86): Part of a committee that includes ex-defensive lineman
Jeff Robinson (45), who many believe is more talented than any of them, and
former starter Ernie Conwell (84), returning from injury. Az-zahir Hakim (81)
replaces this mob in the three-wide
set. | TE
| Dave Moore (83): Willing blocker on the edge. Will also surprise people with
the occasional circus catch
downfield. |
| Kurt Warner (13): His exploits have been well documented. What I like best
about him is his ability to get to his hot reads quickly and precisely in the
face of a blitz. The book on him is to crowd the middle and make him go to the
out-routes. | QB
| Shaun King (10): Did you happen to catch Eric Zeier warming up in the third
quarter of the Redskins' game? The kid's got a lot of heart, but let's face it,
he's still
shaky. |
| Marshall Faulk (28): On the Rams' artificial turf, well, he ought to be
outlawed. Or handicapped with weights, like a
racehorse. | RB
| Warrick Dunn (28): I hate to see him lose in the old edge match-up, because
he's been a heroic figure in this offense. Particularly effective catching
passes from the
slot. |
| Robert Holcombe (25): Originally drafted to carry the running game, he's
become a kind of utility man. Gives way to Ricky Proehl (87) when they go
four-wide. | FB
| Mike Alstott (40): Big hammer who's surprisingly nifty-footed when he has to
be. Blocking is improving. Will go to tailback when they load up with 252-pound
Kevin McLeod in front of
him. |
| Isaac Bruce (80): Good route-runner, burner, zone-destroyer, Pro Bowler. I've
seen him drop one every now and then, but who
cares? | WR
| Jacquez Green (81): The burner downfield, but three Rams have better
yards-per-catch averages. Plus, it'll take an entire off-season to get him timed
up with the young
QB.
|
| CONSENSUS |
RAMS 7-4. Not as bad as I expected when I started. I thought St. Looie would
wind up with something like a 9-2
edge.
|
| DEFENSE | | Rams | | Buccaneers |
| Kevin Carter (93): I'm missing something. An All-Pro and the NFL's sack
leader with 17, and relentless vs. the run, they say -- but I just don't see him
making that many plays.
| LE
 | Chidi Ahanotu (72): I see Chidi making plays,
though. All over the place. Still in my mind is the job he did on Green Bay's
Earl Dotson. O.K., what the hell, call it
even. |
| D'Marco Farr (75): One of the game's quickest off the ball and a fine
technician. Only weakness -- a bit undersized and tires at times.
| NT
| Brad Culpepper (77): Even smaller than Farr, but doesn't play like it. Makes
the whole thing work. Keeps the linemen off the backers. The unsung hero on the
Bucs' defense. |
| Ray Agnew (99): Bounced around for a while, but found a home in this defense
and has been a sturdy
run-stopper. | DT
| Warren Sapp (99): Always double-teamed on passing downs. Upfield rushes
remove him from running plays and Culpepper has to cover for him. Picks his
spots to turn it loose, and then, kapow!
|
| Grant Wistrom (98): At 267 pounds, the smallest of one of the NFL's smallest
D-lines, but what a motor. Never takes a down off. | RE
| Steve White (94) Young talent on the rise. Made the big sack that forced the
fumble in the Redskins'
playoff.
|
| Mike Jones (52): A strong-side plugger who can run. Once played the weak side
with the
Raiders. | SL
| Shelton Quarles (53) The first one off the field in passing downs, either
for nickel back Brian Kelly (25) or LB Alshermond Singleton (51). But
Singleton's hurt now so Quarles might see more
action.
|
| London Fletcher (59): A wild, emotional, big-play guy who can light up a
defense. At times out of control, but he plays the game with real passion.
Leaves the field on the nickel, though, which gives Nickerson the edge.
| ML
| Hardy Nickerson (56): Never comes out. At 34, he can't run the way he used
to, but he's smart and tough. Pro Bowl
choice.
|
| Todd Collins (54): Ex-Patriot. Comes out in some pass-defense packages. The
weakest of the Rams
trio. | WL
| Derrick Brooks (55): The best in the game. No one close. Can lock onto any
receiver, even a wideout. A run-stuffer as
well. |
| Todd Lyght (41): Pro Bowler. Occasionally will get MDR (most dangerous
receiver) responsibility. No burner, but plays the angles well. Corners get lots
of man-to-man in the Rams'
system. | LC
| Donnie Abraham (21): Teeth-gritter. Tough and dedicated. Works mostly as
front man in the Bucs' double-zone, but very good when he's manned up. Fine
tackler. Sprained a knee vs. the Skins,
though. |
| Billy Jenkins (22): You'll see him up near the line all day against the Bucs'
running game. O.K. in coverage, nothing more. | SS
| John Lynch (47): The best. Blitzing, ball-hawking, stuffing the run, whatever
they ask of
him.
|
| Devin Bush (23): Ex-Falcon took over when Keith Lyle got hurt, and they
haven't been able to get him out of the
lineup. | FS
| Damien Robinson (24): Big (6'3", 215 pounds), young, third-year pro
who's developing a nose for the ball. Coming off a strained hip injury. |
| Dexter McCleon (21): The guy everyone goes after. Lots of man coverage for
him. Maybe too much. Came up big vs. the Vikings during real time (forget all
their garbage-time scoring).
| RC
| Ronde Barber (20): Double-zone a lot of the time, but covers the slot
receiver on the nickel (the toughest job in the business) and does a good job.
Slight knee injury vs. the 'Skins.
|
| CONSENSUS |
Bucs, 6-2-3, an even greater edge than I gave the Rams'
offense.
|
| SPECIAL TEAMS | | Rams | | Buccaneers |
| Martin "Automatica" Gramatica is better than anything the Rams
come up with to replace the injured Jeff Wilkins, if they do. But what gives the
Rams the Edge in Special teams? Returns. Tony Horne is scary, running those
kicks back behind the best wedge in the game, coached by legendary Special Teams
commandant, Crash Gansz. Hakim is a better punt returner than any of the
Bucs.
| Kicking
& Coverage
| Mark Royals is a more effective punter than the Rams' Mike Horan. St. Louis
has good coverage downfield, but the Bucs simply fly to the
ball.
|
| COACHING | | Rams | | Buccaneers |
| The figure that overshadows all of them is St. Looie's Mike Martz, who has
created a Van Gogh of an offense. Some day it'll hang in the
Louvre. | Coaching
| Martz's offense makes Mike Shula's Tampa Bay attack look stodgy. Of course,
having terrific players helps, which accounts, in large part, for the showcase
job Monte Kiffin is doing, running the Bucs'
defense.
|
| FORECAST | | I hate to say this because I've rooted for Tampa Bay all year, but all the
elements for a blowout are in place. The scariest thing is that three of the
starting Bucs DBs are banged up to some degree or other, and that's exactly what
you don't want, facing this sprint-medley-relay of an offense.
I don't like the Bucs' O-line, either, or their young QB in a big game on the road. They might
run for a while, until they have to play catch-up, but the only way I can see
them winning, or even coming close, is if they play the greatest defense ever
seen in a game at this level, plus St. Louis gets sloppy and overconfident and
fools around with dropped passes and turnovers.
| |
My prediction: St. Louis 34, Tampa Bay 16. |
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