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Miami may surprise at Jacksonville
Posted: Tuesday January 11, 2000 11:54 AM
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| Edges |
| Jaguars | | Dolphins |
| When healthy, Mark Brunell is one of the best QBs in the NFL -- but he's not healthy. Jay Fiedler played very well in his first NFL start, completing 28-of-39 for 317 yards and one TD, but now he faces an excellent Dolphins defense. | QB
 | Dan Marino is going to pull out every thing he has to win one more time, and I can't underestimate that. |
| Jacksonville's Fred Taylor is a terrific back, and his backup (James Stewart) is capable of being a 1,000-yard rusher -- and a starter on most teams. | RB
 | Miami has struggled all year at this position, and may have found a good one in J.J. Johnson, but the edge goes to Jacksonville. |
| When healthy, the Jaguars line is one of the best -- but both tackles are hurt, so there are big questions here. Meanwhile, the Dolphins' line has not played up to its reputation in recent weeks. | OL
| I'd rather have Richmond Webb and James Brown over whomever the Jags put out on the field. The Dolphins inside three played well against Cortez Kennedy and Sam Adams. |
| Most insiders feel the Jaguars receivers are second only to Minnesota's. I agree. I'll take Jimmy Smith or Keenan McCardell over any of the Dolphins receivers. | Rec
| The Dolphins receivers lack speed as a group, and on occasion they disappear during the game. |
| This is much closer than people realize. One offensive coordinator I spoke with felt it was the scheme of the Jaguars -- not the talent -- that produces the great defense, Maybe so. You can run at both Jags DE Tony Brackens and Dolphins DE Jason Taylor. | DL
| The two big tackles for the Fish, Tim Bowens and Daryl Gardener, remind me of the Redskins tackles -- size, reputation and below-average production. Case in point: four tackles between them last week in Seattle. Where Miami does gain an edge is with depth. Trace Armstrong didn't even start last week; Rich Owens started at right end but Armstrong had three sacks. This is almost a pick 'em situation. |
| Zach Thomas is a tackling machine and the Dolphins LB speed is good ... | LB
| ... but I prefer Kevin Hardy and company. |
| Miami asks corners Patrick Surtain, Sam Madison and Terrell Buckley to play aggressive man coverage all over the field, and they do well for the most part. Their play enables safeties Brock Marion and Shawn Wooden to play the run very well. | DB
| Aaron Beasley and Fernando Bryant are good cover corners, but rank slightly below the Dolphins corners at this point. And they are protected by more zone calls than their Dolphins counterparts. Carnell Lake is a difference-maker at safety and at this point this is a pick 'em position. |
| Reggie Barlow has more big-play ability as a returner than Marion, although Marion looked great last week. | ST
| But I give the "team" edge to Miami because of kicker Olindo Mare. |
| Tom Coughlin is one of the most demanding and best-prepared coaches in the league. He lost both of coordinators to head jobs and he still manages to have the best record in the NFL (14-2). But Coughlin didn't replace offensive coordinator Chris Palmer, which could come back to haunt him in the playoffs. | Coach
| Jimmy Johnson knew to win in Seattle he had to be patient and deliberate -- something most coaches can't do. Getting Dave Wannstedt really helped Johnson. | |
Pat Kirwan, who spent 12 years in the NFL as a coach, scout and personnel administrator, is an NFL analyst for CNNSI.com. He previews each of this weekend's divisional playoff matchups.
The Dolphins will win if: The defense can slow down Jaguars RB Fred Taylor and not give up any big runs. ... J.J. Johnson runs the ball well enough early in the game to keep it close. ... The pass rush gets to Mark Brunell (or Jay Fiedler) by taking advantage of Jacksonville's injuries at offensive tackle.
The Jaguars will win if: Dom Capers's zone blitz scheme flushes Dan Marino out of the pocket and forces turnovers. ... Miami's "press man" in corner coverages isn't able to hold up against receivers Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell. ... The Jacksonville offense can get an early lead and make the Dolphins throw more than they want to.
The key matchups: Jacksonville's left offensive tackle vs. Jason Taylor and the right offensive tackle vs. Trace Armstrong or Rich Owens. Also, MLB Zach Thomas vs. Fred Taylor; CB Aaron Beasley vs. WR Tony Martin.
Don't be surprised if: J.J. Johnson is able to run the ball against the Jaguars. The Bengals, without Corey Dillon, ran for 110 yards in 18 carries in the last game of the year. ... Fiedler plays at QB because Brunell is not healthy. ... Dolphins kick returner Brock Marion has a big return somewhere in this game to create a scoring opportunity.
X factor: Marino's closing in on the end of his career, and he won't go down without a fight. Exhibit A: His third-and-17 completion for 24 yards to Tony Martin in Sunday's game against Seattle). Jimmy Johnson's conservative offensive game plan now has believers in Miami. ... The health of the Jaguars -- they can't afford another injury to the offensive line.
Prediction: I'm going against conventional wisdom on this one. I think the injuries to Tony Boselli, Leon Searcy and Brunell make it more than possible for the Dolphins to win a very close game with the Jaguars. If the Bengals can sack the Jaguars twice, the Fish can double that total -- at least.
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