Redskins at Buccaneers

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Posted: Monday January 10, 2000 05:50 PM

Edges Redskins   Buccaneers Brad Johnson of the Redskins has thrown for more than 4,000 yards this season, is headed for the Pro Bowl, held his own in a fight with Lions DE Robert Porcher and has already won a playoff game this year. QB   Shaun King is a rookie, has never been in the playoffs and is facing a quickly improving Redskins defense. Stephen Davis led the NFL with 17 TDs this year, and over 1,400 yards rushing, but he will not be 100%. Backups Skip Hicks and Brian Mitchell are adequate most weeks but not against this Bucs defense. If Davis is 90% the EDGE goes to WASHINGTON if not then it goes to TAMPA. RB   Last week Washington really didn't have a quality back to defend; now they do. Tampa's running backs are a combination of the best power back in the NFL, Mike Alstott, and the elusive Warrick Dunn. In the first half expect the Redskins to look better running the ball, but as the game wears on and Davis wears down the edge will change. Norv Turner expects to have All-Pro Tre' Johnson -- whom Norv expects to be fined but not suspended for inadvertently hitting an official -- leading the way on most runs. But center Corey Raymer is hurting and left tackle Andy Heck is out, so the edge goes to the Bucs. OL   Lost outstanding LT Paul Gruber (who will be replaced by Pete Pierson). Could have signed LT Joe Patton -- who was on the street -- to replace Gruber, but they felt Pierson was a better choice. Both teams have good NFL receivers. Washington has big Michael Westbrook and the speedy Albert Connell. Rec   Tampa counters with the lightning-fast Jacquez Green, who caught 10 passes in his last game, and Bert Emanuel. Washington tight end Stephen Alexander is the next Jay Novachek. The Redskins inside defenders -- Dan Wilkinson and Dana Stubblefield -- are very good players, too, and Mike Nolan has them playing their best football. But when a defense only gives up 235 points all season, best in the NFC, it starts up front. DL   Warren Sapp is probably the best inside defensive lineman in the NFL. Every time I see him play I can't believe we passed on him when I was with the Jets. I spent the whole afternoon the day before the '95 draft with him and he convinced me he would straighten out his off-the-field problems. What a player he is. Not even close here. The Redskins don't have anyone who can match up with Tampa Bay's Hardy Nickerson and Derrick Brooks. LB   Expect Nickerson and Brooks to make a lot of plays. Brooks isn't happy if he doesn't have 10 tackles a game. He's always happy. I really like the Redskins corners, Darryl Green and Champ Bailey. They will do a better job against the Tampa wide receivers in man-to-man coverage than the Tampa corners. CB   Ronde Barber and Donnie Abraham aren't a bad tandem themselves, but they're not quite at Green and Bailey's level. Closer call between the safeties. Washington's Sam Shade can blitz and create sacks like he did against Detroit. S   ... But Tampa's John Lynch is a Pro-Bowler and a great quarterback back there in the secondary. Redskins returner Brian Mitchell may have lost a step, but he is a big-time player and is capable of being a threat. ST   I would rather have Martin Gramatica as my kicker. And Matt Turk, Washington's punter, isn't having the kind of season he had last year. Norv Turner is one of the best play-calling coaches in the NFL, and he has his biggest test this week against Monty Kiffin's defense. Coach   Mike Shula's offense is up against a fast-improving Redskins defense, but two weeks of preparation gives him the edge.

The Redskins will win if: Running back Stephen Davis is healthy enough to perform like he did last week. ... Quarterback Brad Johnson gets the time to throw to his full set of receivers. ... The defense slows down the running game enough that rookie Tampa Bay QB Shaun King is forced to beat them. If it's up to King, he had better keep an eye on Redskins safety Sam Shade, because Washington defensive coordinator Mike Nolan will blitz him.

The Bucs will win if: The defensive line can take advantage of the Redskins loss of left tackle Andy Heck and center Corey Raymer, pressure Johnson and get some production from their wide receivers against the Redskins corners. The Bucs can't afford to fall behind early like the Lions did.

The key matchups: Redskins guard Keith Sims on Bucs tackle Warren Sapp; Redskins backup left tackle Kip Vickers on DE Marcus Jones; Tampa Bay RB Mike Alstott on MLB Derek Smith.

Don't be surprised if: Washington uses more play-action passes on first down against the Bucs defense. Also, Johnson is a quick-rhythm passer and will use the three-step drop-slant/fade passing game to negate some of the Tampa pressure.

X factor: King is still an unknown. He is capable of creating on the move. If athletic Redskins LB Shawn Barber can help keep King under control, this could be a very interesting game. But if Washington establishes a two-touchdown lead early, the Bucs are in trouble. They are not built to come from behind.

Prediction: If the Redskins were healthy -- and unfortunately they're not -- I would like their chances against a Bucs team that only generated 270 points this season (11th in the NFC). Home teams on Divisional playoff weekend are 10-2 over the past three years, and the Bucs are 7-1 this year at home. The Bucs will win a very close game -- and kicker Martin Gramatica will be the difference.

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