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Dr. Z's Forecast
Posted: Thursday January 13, 2000 05:34 PM By Paul Zimmerman, Sports Illustrated I'm trying hard to find an upset for you this weekend, but I just can't see one. Minnesota over St. Louis, people are telling me, and, sure, I could strain a bit and try to make a case for the Vikings, but it wouldn't really be an honest call. So now that the thrill is gone and you know I'm staying with chalk the whole way, here is my take on the weekend's action: SATURDAY'S GAMES Dolphins at Jaguars, 12:35 p.m. What I saw last week: Here's a real nutty thought for you: The kick-return touchdown that put Seattle ahead in the third quarter actually helped the Dolphins in a strange way. That was the quarter in which Miami ran off 24 plays to Seattle's four, the quarter that wore the Seahawks out and turned the game. Sure, the kick return gave the 'Hawks seven points, but it also meant their defense had to take the field right away. It got no rest. Then when Miami kicked the field goal and worked the successful onsides kick, the tiring Seattle defense had to buckle up again. I'm dying to know if this was one of the reasons Jimmy Johnson tried the onside kick. If so, it was a stroke of genius. I'll ask him about it in the off-season. By the time the fourth quarter rolled around and Miami got off that hair-raising 85-yard drive, it was facing a very tired defense. When Seattle took the field for its final two series, Miami's defense, well rested and fairly fresh, rose up with a fury and took over. Breakdown: The best hope for the Dolphins Saturday rests on the fact that the Jaguars offensive line is banged up, with Tony Boselli out and Leon Searcy gimpy. Miami's front four -- with no weak spots, and backed by Zach Thomas, who had a career game last week (you know, I've got real second thoughts about not picking him to my All-Pro team. Can I do the thing over?) -- is the strength of the team. I don't know how functional Mark Brunell will be. But I also favor the Jaguars D, with the extra week off, against the Miami attack. Dan Marino tires during the course of a game, and in the fourth quarter he's a below-50% passer, even against Seattle, when he sucked it up and practically willed himself to get the ball into his receivers' hands. I mean, that 23-yard completion to Tony Martin on third-and-17 from his own eight? Has he ever thrown a more clutch pass? In the back of my mind is a nagging thought, though. The zone blitz, of which Dom Capers was and still is the master, isn't exactly new. It hit the world like a thunderbolt a few years ago, then was mothballed into retirement, except for a few teams. This year Capers is back with it, and it's been having great success, but it has stumbled a bit of late. Could it be that offensive coaches once again have figured out how to control Capers' baby? I don't really believe this, but I said it to cover myself, should the Jags have trouble stopping Miami. Which I don't think they will. Too many weapons. Too much rest. Dolphins might try to pound early, but Jimmy's not stupid and he realizes the futility of this, so I look for them to open it up right away, as a change of pace. Low-scoring game. Prediction: Jacksonville 20, Miami 10. Redskins at Buccaneers, 4:15 p.m. What I saw last week: Was Washington's defense supposed to be awful? Gee, I didn't notice it. How many times did Gus Frerotte get sacked? I guess it was five, wasn't it? And how many yards did the Lions rush for, with that dynamic duo of Cory Schlesinger and Travis Reece? (Was Bobby Ross kidding us, or what?) You say 45. Doesn't seem like the 'Skins' defense was that bad, did it? Breakdown: O.K., home crowd and noise and all that. Plus the Lions looked like they were ready to pack it in from the go. But I don't see the Bucs really putting a major dent in the Skins D. They'll bring strong safety Sam Shade up close to the line to address Mike Alstott and Warrick Dunn, and let young Shaun King try to beat them with his arm. The passing game will consist of short, safe, underneath stuff, which will work out O.K. because King will be operating on a short field -- after the Bucs defense forces a few turnovers or the punts of Matt Turk, who's having a weird, injury-ridden season, give Tampa Bay good field position. I don't see any way you can get by the matchup of Bucs defense, which doesn't really need any help, against a crippled Washington attack -- LT Andy Heck gone, C Cory Raymer possibly inactive and, worst of all, tailback Stephen Davis iffy until kickoff, unless they declare him out late this week. The dropoff from him to Skip Hicks last weekend was dramatic. Nope, can't see the 'Skins overcoming that problem. Three turnovers, minimum, if the Bucs defense says the hell with it and turns the hounds loose on Brad Johnson. But if they lay back in that dopey zone of theirs and play it safe and give Johnson time to throw, and somehow the 'Skins get on top and King has to play catchup? Look out. Guaranteed, though: Norv Turner will come up with some weird offensive wrinkles for this one. As Filip Bondy of the New York Daily News once wrote (my favorite quote about Turner): "He has a nasty, twisted way of calling plays." Prediction: Tampa Bay 24, Washington 17. SUNDAY'S GAMES Vikings at Rams, 12:35 p.m. What I saw last week: I'll dispose of this quickly. Vikings, doing their thing, against a Cowboys team that constantly shot itself in the foot and just proved that it never belonged in the playoffs in the first place. Now everybody's juiced up by the idea of what Jeff George and his wideouts will do to a Rams defense that is, and I'm quoting the party line here, "untested and hasn't really faced anyone." But how about what the Rams will do to the Vikings defense, huh? Breakdown: Besides that, I like St. Looie's D just fine. If George is under intense fire he could put the ball up for grabs, especially early. I give Robert Smith about 60 yards, certainly no more. Watch St. Louis' middle linebacker, London Fletcher, No. 59. Cris Carter and Randy Moss against the Rams corners? Well, Todd Lyght can handle himself O.K., but Dexter McCleon's the problem. He'll get help and he'll be O.K., provided the Rams put a rush on George, which I feel they'll do. Offensively the Rams are sheer murder on artificial turf. I mean, look how many big-play guys there are in that attack -- Marshall Faulk and Torry Holt and Az Hakim and Isaac Bruce -- with Kurt Warner pushing all the right buttons. What does he do best? Gets to his hot reads precisely and quickly when under blitz pressure. Then Faulk gets the ball and there's a missed tackle, and it's away we go. Will the Vikings stop this thing, especially on the Rams' own artificial surface? Not likely. Will they outscore it? Uh, no. Prediction: St. Louis 34, Minnesota 24. Titans at Colts, 4:05 p.m. What I saw last week: Everybody asks me if the pass was forward or backward. On first look, it seemed forward. On the replay it looked O.K.. From foot-to-foot it was forward, from ball-to-ball it was backward, or at least sideways, which is all right. I'm surprised Phil Luckett got it right, since he usually screws it up when he goes under the hood. The freak play hid the fact that the Titans offense stunk. Were they playing with wideouts on the field? Didn't seem like it. Yancey Thigpen? Remember him? Is he on the lam or something? Of Steve McNair's 13 completions, two were for more than 10 yards, an 11-yarder and a 14-yarder. One was 10 even, and the rest were under. O.K., Eddie George ran for 106 yards, but it took him 29 carries to do it, and a 3.7 average isn't exactly terrifying. This kind of sicko attack, even against an average defense, which describes that of the Colts, is going to get the Titans murdered. Breakdown: Jevon Kearse and the rush, plus the crowd noise, plus the freakie at the end, got them by the Bills, but they can't lean on the crowd this time, and the Colts special teams will be ready for any kind of nutso stuff (if I were the Titans I'd do it again on their first kick return, just for the hell of it, just to prove that history repeats) and they'll be working against a better quarterback. There were moments in that Buffalo game that simply cried out for Doug Flutie, not so much for his arm but his legs, when Rob Johnson was getting sacked five times in the first half. Little Doug's scrambles could have saved a drive or two, and a two-pronged QB attack ... well, I'm dreaming. That kind of stuff is too imaginative for Wade Phillips, and Johnson, actually, did just fine, leading the Bills to what looked like the winning TD, until Return Freak Left. Indy's defense has been run at of late, and it'll be even more vulnerable with Cornelius Bennett out. Everyone says, O.K., now Tennessee comes out and pounds 'em with George, a simple solution that doesn't strain the imagination. Uh-uh. Loaded dice. Eight-man fronts. And backs. Jason Belser up near the line. Chad Cota. Rick Volk. Don Shula. All the DBs get double-figure tackles. McNair to the Air? On the road? Well, the record's not good. Permit me, please, a brief chart.
Does the Titans offensive braintrust have the savvy to come up with a sophisticated and meaningful early passing attack to confound the experts and the Colts defense, risking the prospect of McNair trading punches with Peyton Manning? I don't think so. I think they're Dance With What Brung Ya people, and they'll let Eddie do it. Personally, I would throw the ball early. I'm not impressed with the Indy rush, or Chad Bratzke, who inherits more sacks than he generates. The stubborn Titans defense will keep the game close for a while. So will the Titans offense, provided Indy doesn't score. If the Titans come in stagestruck and Peyton and Edgerrin James and Marvin Harrison get on top early, forget it. Could be a blowout. George could run for 150 and prove this whole equation cock-eyed. Or I could be wrong in lots of other ways, too, but right now I see this as ...
Prediction: Indianapolis 27, Tennessee 17.
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