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College
Mike Mamula has only 32 1/2 sacks after being selected No. 7 in the 1995 draft. Ezra O. Shaw/Allsport |
By Dave Cotton, CNNSI.com
One of life's great mysteries is why NFL teams place such high stock in individual workout performances. So much that they often overlook a player's production in college and other key factors such as football smarts, inner drive and character.
Each year we see players improve their draft position with strong workout numbers. But these "workout wonders" often don't live up to their lofty draft position because they're unable to carry those raw skills to the NFL playing field, or they're missing the key intangibles to be a standout professional player.
The Steelers selected Plaxico Burress eighth overall last year, shrugging off reports about his lack of dedication. All they saw was a tall wideout with good speed. Burress spent more time last season on the bench than in the end zone.
Dimitrius Underwood was taken by the Vikings in the first round after he wowed scouts with his superior strength and size. He lasted less than two days in camp, was released and later diagnosed with bipolar disorder.
Akili Smith was a starter at Oregon for only one year, but dazzled scouts with his speed, size and strong arm during workouts. The Bengals selected him third overall in 1999, but he has struggled as a starter.
Mike Mamula, Ryan Leaf, Tony Mandarich and Todd Marinovich are others who dazzled during workouts but were flops in the NFL.
Conversely, we've seen players whose draft position tumbled because they were supposedly too small, too short, too slow or too unathletic: Brian Griese (third round), Zach Thomas (fifth Round) Elvis Grbac (eighth round) and Jesse Armstead (eighth round). This despite proving in college that they had the football savvy and intangibles to overcome their physical shortcomings.
Teams also are missing out on smaller school gems who have a burning desire to be successful. Wayne Chrebet, John Randle, Robert Griffith and London Fletcher went undrafted. I'll take a guy with a high motor over a guy with a high vertical any day of the week.
Sure, workout numbers are a necessary part of evaluating college talent. But with the draft being such a high stakes game that can impact a franchise for years, teams would be better served by paying more attention to what makes a guy a great football player and a little less attention to his 40 time.
| Combine
Edgerrin James lifted himself into the top five of the 1999 draft with amazing postseason workouts.
Elsa Hasch/Allsport |
By Marc Fein, CNNSI.com
Welcome to football in the 21st Century. Players are making tens of millions of dollars. Owners are paying hundreds of millions of dollars for a franchise. And wins and losses ultimately put butts in the seats and therefore sawbucks in the pockets of the guys running he show.
None of this should be news, but it should help to explain why picking a player in the NFL Draft has become a science. "Gut feelings" won't get it done in football in the 21st Century. Too often a gut feeling will be a bust and cost a team a great deal of money.
How important is a draft pick? Well, think about this -- if John Elway agreed to play in Baltimore, would the Colts have moved to Indy? And furthermore, would the Broncos have flourished in Denver?
More often than not, the lifting, running, throwing and catching that takes place at the Combine will provide general managers with the right answers on who to pick and who to leave alone.
There will always be Doug Flutie's out there -- guys who succeed despite their physical limitations. And I'm not blind to the David Klinglers of the world, either. You know, guys who score great and then can't make the cut.
But it was the numbers and the tests that told the Patriots to take Drew Bledsoe over Rick Mirer. It was the numbers and the tests that saved the Colts a fortune and landed them Edgerrin James in 1999 while conventional wisdom had Heisman Trophy winner Ricky Williams as the top available running back.
A classic example of how the system the way it is today could have prevented an enormous mistake in a draft of the past occurred in 1983. Had teams been privy to today's Combine, there is no way that journeymen like Todd Blackledge, Tony Eason and Ken O'Brien would have been taken before future Hall of Famer Dan Marino in the first round. (And I only named the quarterbacks he was better than.)
Here is the bottom line. There is too much riding on a teams' draft choice to leave it up to a "gut feeling." There are rare times when the numbers will be wrong. But I'll take a pass on a once in a lifetime break, and go with more consistent success by sticking with the science of football in the 21st Century.
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