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Expert's eye

Veteran player evaluator Wiggin dissects title games

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Posted: Friday January 12, 2001 2:59 PM

  Rich Gannon Rich Gannon and the Raiders' offense will have to continue their balanced play to beat the Ravens in the AFC title game. AP

Paul Wiggin, the Minnesota Vikings' director of pro personnel, will have a keen eye on this weekend's playoff games. Wiggin, who has spent more than 40 years in the NFL, is responsible for league-wide player evaluation and advance scouting of opponents. Wiggin breaks down the Divisional matchups for CNNSI.com:

Vikings at Giants

The Vikings will beat the Giants if... our great offense wins the matchup against their great defense. We've got to be at our best on that side of things, but I think maybe the winning factor won't be our strength against their strength as much as it will be other things like our special teams winning the field position battle and our defense doing its part. We can't go downhill from the new standard we established for ourselves on defense and special teams last week against the Saints. Those two factors had as much to do with us winning last week against New Orleans as the big plays on offense. The other thing we have to do is match the elements with the Giants. We can't allow the field to be imbalanced in their favor because they have the advantage of footing or the experience of playing on that field at this time of year. We can't let that decide this game.

The Giants will beat the Vikings if... our defense lets Kerry Collins feel comfortable in the pocket all day. He's a rhythm-type passer and if he gets into a groove he can do some damage with his arm. We have to apply some pressure and get him out of his comfort zone. And the Giants need that Thunder and Lightning combination of Ron Dayne and Tiki Barber to do what it's capable of doing. New York can't afford for them to be shut down as well as they were last week. The running game is still New York's main offensive weapon and it has to be there for them. On defense, the Giants did a great job of taking away the Eagles' big-play player in Donovan McNabb. But now they've got not just one player to key on, but three or four. That's the challenge. The Giants also need to get the crowd into the game right away, and give them something to build a dream on. Something unanticipated like that kickoff return touchdown could be a huge factor.

Ravens at Raiders

The Ravens beat the Raiders if... their offense moves the football and contributes more than it did last week against Tennessee. The Oakland Raiders are capable of being really good on defense when they choose to be. But they are not in the same class as the Titans. Oakland might not have really extended itself last week against Miami, but that defense can be scored upon if it's not at the top of its game. It's fair to say Baltimore quarterback Trent Dilfer has to be the key guy this week. For the Ravens to win, he has to get more done than he has in the past two games. You can not week after week at a playoff level put the defense in a position where they have to score points to win. The Ravens have a good strong offensive line with an excellent runner in Jamal Lewis. They've got to be more of a factor. Dilfer has got to get out of the Tony Banks mentality, because he's starting to play like Banks at times. He looks like he's afraid to make a mistake.

The Raiders beat the Ravens if... they keep playing with the balance they've shown all season. They've got more balance than their opponent and that has led to much of their success. Oakland's defense won't be the best one on the field, but it has to show up. It has to play one of its best games. You know Baltimore's defense will show up. If the Raiders defense shows up and their offense uses the balance of running and passing that they have all season, they have a much more well-rounded game than the Ravens do. The Raiders' West Coast offense should be able to peck away underneath against the Ravens, who will give you the short stuff. But Baltimore's defense punishes you after those short gains. There's going to be two or three guys peeing blood when this one's over. But the Raiders won't be intimidated. That's not Jon Gruden's style and that's not their crowd's style. You're not even allowed in that stadium out there unless you have a tattoo.


 
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