Time for a gut check
Paul Zimmerman has covered the
NFL for Sports Illustrated since 1979. His exclusive online
column appears each
Friday.
Posted: Fri September 19,
1997
Character, guts. Call it what you will, but whatever
it is,
it can carry an inferior team into the playoffs. By Week 4, a
team's character is pretty well
established.
I've had a chance to watch 25 NFL teams play so far. Yes,
that's right, 25 teams. (Remember, I'm the proud owner of
three TVs, two VCRs and one satellite dish.) With an eye
toward character and characters, here are some
top-of-the-head
impressions.
Tampa Bay
is my favorite team to watch. I like the Bucs' defense,
especially cornerback Donnie Abraham, who made the Vikings'
Cris Carter his personal challenge last week and then held
him to one 11-yard catch when he had him in man coverage.
Warrick Dunn is
breathtaking—literally. Every time he carries the ball, you
hold your breath. The guy is
tiny. Every time he gets hit, you're just hoping he'll get up.
Mike Alstott is an old-style, Larry Csonka-like fullback.
Quarterback Trent Dilfer is playing like a man on a
mission. Yes, I like the Bucs at home this week against
Miami, which has trapped Jimmy Johnson into the kind of
out-of-whack pass-versus-run ratio he detests. It might
continue as long as Dan Marino is his quarterback. Don
Shula got caught in the same kind of trap—stuck with an
offense he wasn't really sold
on.
The best team I've seen in the AFC so
far? Jacksonville. The Jags played with great passion and character in the
playoffs last year, and it has carried over. Look at the
way they rallied around quarterback Steve Matthews two
weeks ago. Matthews was a guy they picked up off the street
and dropped into the
lineup. What does he
do? He leads them to a win over the Giants. I think the Jags
will gang up on
Pittsburgh's Jerome Bettis Monday night. I think they'll give Kordell
Stewart more exotic coverage schemes than he can handle.
Stewart's yards-per-completion average is a measly 8.9,
second-worst in the NFL, but I think the Steelers will try
to surprise the Jags
by going deep. Good luck. Win number 3 for
Jacksonville.
Denver came out flat against St. Louis last weekend. The Broncos
were on their heels for a while against the undermanned
Rams. Running back Terrell Davis is terrific and I think
Denver's quick, mobile offensive line is the best in the
business, and their
defense
swarms.... still, I think this is a team that's gotten too much
praise too early. They're ready for a knockoff—but not
this week, not against
Cincinnati.
Sure,
Kansas
City got away with a multiple blitz package against Buffalo
last week, but the Chiefs can't rush the passer without
Derrick Thomas. K.C., with an offense that's O.K. but not
exactly high tech, could very well be 0-3 at this point. I
think
Carolina will have enough to get by them this week, even though the
Panthers are missing a beat. Only two players have scored
for them this season—kicker John Kasay and tight end
Wesley Walls. At least their two new linebackers, Micheal
Barrow and Andre Royal,
seem to have caught onto the zone blitz scheme. I think
they're on the
rise.
Baltimore showed great courage on Sunday, when an injured Vinny
Testaverde led the Ravens to a comeback victory over the
Giants. The Ravens manufactured the win with a no-huddle
offense, helped by the strangely silent Meadowlands crowd.
Well, they'll be greeted
by more silence when they face
Tennessee in Memphis, and the Ravens' pass-rush oriented defense
will give Steve McNair problems. But the Oilers have an
underrated and active front four and an absolutely
relentless commitment to the running game—the combination
should be enough to give them
the
win.
I have more respect for the
New York
Jets after their overtime loss to New England. Bill Belichick
is a defensive wizard, and his schemes took Drew Bledsoe
apart. But no defense could handle Curtis Martin, who ran
like a man possessed and gave the Pats the victory—of
course, John Hall's
botched chippie field goal played a part. But until the Jets learn
how to protect Neil O'Donnell, they'll struggle. I still
like them to beat
Oakland on Sunday, even though the Raiders know how to get after
the passer, even though Oakland traditionally has New
York's number. The Raiders strike me as a screw-up team,
filled with false bravado, hollow at the core, poorly
coached and ready for a
big
fall.
Going into the season I had
New
Orleans pegged as the NFL's worst team. Nothing the Saints have
done so far has changed my opinion. The quarterback
situation is bad enough, but each San Francisco touchdown
in last Sunday's massacre came from a blown coverage. Bad
coaching, inferior
personnel.
Detroit will drop the Saints to
0-4.
Green
Bay has problems. The injuries mount, Brett Favre puts
together just enough offense to get the Packers off the
hook. Their defense, what with Gilbert Brown and LeRoy
Butler joining Craig Newsome on the injured list, is not as
good as it was. But it's the
running game that will get the Pack past
Minnesota. The Vikings can rush the passer and can pile up a lot of
yards with their passing game, but their defense can't
handle the run. Any team with a commitment to the ground
attack will hurt
them.
Here's an interesting
matchup: the New York
Giants at
St.
Louis. Both teams have struggled. The Giants melted down in the
fourth quarter against Baltimore. The Rams have a decimated
offense and unsound quarterbacking. I like the Rams'
defense, particularly lightning-quick tackle D'Marco Farr,
but their O-line gets
overrun and quarterback Tony Banks still has trouble getting
his stuff together. I like New York in a miniupset, only
because of the matchup of their D-line against the Rams'
weak
blockers.
Chicago plays hard and runs the ball decently. Still, the Bears
just don't have enough quality performers to worry the good
teams, which I guess includes 3-0
New
England (even though the Pats should have lost to the Jets). Yeah,
I like the Patriots in this one. It's kind of a routine
pick, but New England, with Drew Bledsoe still showing
inconsistency in spite of the impressive numbers, is ripe
for an
upset.
Indianapolis at
Buffalo? The Bills are a terrific pass-rush team, and the Colts
can't block anybody. A ho-hum pick. I'll take the Bills.
They're fragile, though. If something happens to wideout
Andre Reed, they're in big trouble, and I don't like their
offensive line. Buffalo
is a scrappy team that's just hanging
on.
Seattle should get by
San
Diego. The pass rush bailed out the Hawks against Indy.
Seattle's D should come through again; the Chargers allowed
seven Panther sacks last week. Aside from that pass rush, I
don't think the Hawks have much going for them. They fold
when things get nasty,
their running game is middle-of-the-road at best (and only
when the game is going their way). Running back Chris
Warren has never impressed me with his
toughness.
Would you believe that
San
Francisco hosting
Atlanta isn't as easy a pick as it seems? Putting Steve Young
behind a line with the worst pair of tackles in the NFL is
positively inhuman. Harris Barton better get well soon.
Then the Niners can maximum-protect the other side, and
we'll see. There's nothing
wrong with the S.F. defense, though. That'll get the Niners
through this one—and many
more.
Four of the five NFC East teams have the weekend off. We'll
talk about them next
time.
Previous
editions of Dr. Z
| 
