Playoffs may be missing usual faces
Posted: Tuesday November 10, 1998 01:01 PM
Many of the NFL's traditionally proud franchises are starting to show
chinks in their armor -- perennial playoff teams like the Packers, 49ers,
Chiefs and Patriots are enduring "down years" this season.
At least three of those four have advanced to the postseason in each of the
past five seasons, but that might not be the case in 1998.
It may seem at first that these teams are underachieving, but there's a
simple reason for the shift in power. The modern era of free agency has
robbed the top franchises of their depth, so unless they stay totally
healthy, they struggle with injuries.
Success on the field brings financial wealth to a team's marquee players,
but it doesn't allow teams to pay their backups and role players at the
market rate. As a result, these players go elsewhere for more money and the
margin of error for teams is dramatically reduced.
Just ask the Dallas
Cowboys, who had arguably the best depth and talent in the NFL five
years ago, but have had to almost rebuild their franchise because such a
large majority of their salary cap went to a few elite players.
Some call these kind of teams "80-20 teams" -- 80 percent of the money goes
to 20 percent of the players. The problem comes in filling out a roster
with the remaining 20 percent.
The Cowboys weren't quite that bad -- last year, they paid their top 20
percent (11 players) a total of $23.7 million, roughly 63 percent of their
total payroll. Troy
Aikman made $5.87 million last year -- as much as the Cowboys' bottom
28 players, or half their roster.
With this kind of separation between the rich and the poor, it's unlikely
any NFL team will dominate under this system. There's simply no middle
class in the NFL -- there's one group making several million dollars a
year, with a large majority getting by on one-tenth as much.
Right now, for instance, the Broncos are clearly the class of the NFL.
Their only major free-agent loss from last year was linebacker Allen Aldridge, however,
and this year will bring a bigger hit, both from free agency and
retirement.
What's ultimately frustrating for the coaches who are good teachers is the
inability to develop young players. By the time you've had enough time to
get a guy ready to play, he's on the market and somebody else will pay him
to do what you've taught him to do -- against you. Midseason
trends
Run the football: As they enter the home stretch of the '98
season, NFL teams desperately attempt to establish a strong run game.
First, most NFL coaches don't think you can win in the playoffs without a
run attack. Also, as weather becomes a factor in many parts of the country,
the passing game is less dependable and teams can't afford to be
one-dimensional on offense. Last year it was Miami, and this year, it may
be Green Bay.
Expose the quarterback: NFL defenses are making quarterbacks beat
them, exploiting the lack of consistent talent in the league. There are too
many quarterbacks that can run offenses, but can't step up and win games.
Defenses are taking away the run and finding that opposing quarterbacks
can't win games by themselves. Many of last year's emerging QBs -- Dilfer,
Kanell, Plummer, to name a few -- have struggled this season when they've
been exposed. What's alarming is the number of QBs retiring in the next few
years -- who's going to carry the torch into the 21st century?
Play the rookies: More young, unproven players will get playing
time as teams address their needs heading into the off-season. Case in
point: rookie Skip
Hicks got his first start at tailback for the Redskins last week and
already has as many touchdowns (2) in 35 carries as veteran Terry Allen had in 137
carries this season. The flip side of this is that rookies tend to fade
late in the year -- they're used to 11-game college seasons and now they're
playing four preseason games and grinding out a 16-game season. So while
they may get increased playing time, their production might not be the
same. Because of the nature of coaching -- they don't want to win next
year, they want to win this week -- it's always fun to see if there are any
struggles between coaches and the front office folks as to who needs to be
getting playing time, win or lose.
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