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Dr. Z's NFL Power Rankings

Week 17

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I was talking to my friend, Leo, who likes to make an occasional wager. I was moaning about the impossibility of getting my rankings straight when six of my top eight teams get upset. He gave it the sneering response of a professional dealing with an amateur.

"Why don't you just do it by computer, like the New York Times does," he asked. "Then if anyone wants to argue, just tell him, 'Go blame the computer.'"

I was shocked and horrified by such a suggestion and I cut off the conversation immediately. The computer? That mindless monster? Sure, you factor in meaningless stuff such as margin of victory, assigning equal weight to points scored in garbage time late in the fourth quarter of a blowout and to points dearly won in a tight contest. You assign equal weight to a victory scored in September and one scored last week, with a playoff spot riding on it. The thought of a computer doing my hard, thankless work for me makes me gag, but it does have one tiny advantage. If I blow my deadline, I could fend off the angry phone call by simply stating, "Sorry, the computer was down." And so am I, after that naughty weekend treated my choice specimens so rudely.

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CNN/SI Power Rankings Rank LW Team 1 1 Tennessee Titans 12-3 Through sleet or hail or dark of night, they plod grimly on, giving the ball to Eddie George and watching the W's piling up. 2 3 Baltimore Ravens 11-4 They host the Jets, who'll be fighting for their lives, while the Ravens already have gone as far as they're going to go in the playoff picture -- unless, of course, they're counting on Dallas to upset the Titans. Ergo, this upcoming contest does not really excite Baltimore's emotions. I wish I'd worked all this out when I picked Baltimore to win in the magazine, but the selection was made in the wee hours Monday morning, when all sorts of night-thoughts were careening around in my poor overtaxed brain. 3 2 Denver Broncos 10-5 They blew a game, they dropped a spot. Nobody to move ahead of them except fellow losers. And, of course, the Ravens. 4 4 Oakland Raiders 11-4 They lost to Seattle in Husky Stadium. They play better in a slender one. 5 5 Minnesota Vikings 11-4 This was the team that had gone through season after season with a miraculously low injury rate, compared to the competition. Now the QB and running back are hurt and the defense has rolled back the clock 40 years to their expansion era. And they're in danger of blowing the NFC Central title to the Bucs and having to hit the road as a wild-card team. How are the mighty fallen! 6 11 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10-5 That temperature formula thing will kick in at Green Bay, but here's what could help: The Packers' only chance for the playoffs will be a victory, plus losses by Detroit and St. Louis, and both of those games start the same time as Bucs-Packers. If the Lions are in the process of blowing out the Bears, or if the Rams are putting on one of their aerial acts against New Orleans in the Superdome, then poof, the Packers could lose heart, opening the door for a trend-breaking, cold-weather victory for the Bucs, who will then huddle around the TV set (will they have a dish hookup?) to root for Indy to beat the Vikings in the late game. If that happens, then Tampa Bay would be the division champion, home for the holidays (provided their plane gets out of the frozen north), home for Easter and Secretary's Day and Bastille Day, a real home run. 7 10 New Orleans Saints 10-5 Supposedly, the key to beating St. Louis is to zone 'em so as to keep the gains short, and then close quickly with punishing, precise tackling and, for god's sake, whatever you do, you must not miss any tackles. So Tampa Bay misses tackles all over the place Monday night, including the one on Torry Holt's 72-yard TD, and still wins. How? By making fantastic plays on offense and outscoring 'em. Are you listening, Saints? I've just given you another way to beat the Rams. 8 6 St. Louis Rams 9-6 Sooner or later the strain of so many big games in a row will take its toll -- Vikings two weeks ago, Bucs last weekend, now the Saints, in a do-or-die, in-the-playoffs-or-out affair, and even if they win, they'll need help from Chicago, which faces the rampant Lions. I thought the Rams' defense played with spirit throughout the Bucs game, even though it gave up a lot of yards, and there was nothing wrong with Bud Carson's scheme. His imaginative blitz package had people in Shaun King's face all night. But here's what I didn't like about this team and haven't liked all season: Their wideouts simply drop too many passes. 9 9 New York Giants 11-4 If I had any guts I'd drop 'em a notch or two after that sorry performance in Dallas. I mean, it got so bad that Kerry Collins couldn't even complete a little five-yard checkdown, and after three quarters they were afraid to let him throw the ball. But the Cowboys refused to let New York lose. Did Dallas have an audible system for young QB Anthony Wright? Sure didn't look like it. His passes were into tight coverage. Never have I seen a running game so consistently aimed at the strength of the defense. On one play Emmitt took a pitchout and found himself standing face to face with Jesse Armstead. I thought Emmitt was going to sit down and deal a hand or two of gin. Instead, he dove for cover. The Giants' defensive players emerged as heroes, but a similar performance against Jacksonville Saturday will blow the entire home field playoff advantage, unless, of course, the Vikes and Saints also take the pipe. 10 8 Miami Dolphins 10-5 They chose to hand the ball to a wounded Jay Fiedler in preference to a healthy Damon Huard and they paid for it. A loss in snowy Foxboro and complete outsky from the postseason is not out of the question. 11 11 Philadelphia Eagles 10-5 They're in the postseason. They can't advance from wild-card status. Do they rest people against the Bengals? This will be only one of the many dramas to unfold Sunday. 12 14 Indianapolis Colts 9-6 I think they can beat that reeling Vikings defense at home, but when they take the field they'll know whether or not they have a playoff shot because the Jets and Dolphins games will be over -- unless one of them goes into OT. Kind of interferes with the Colts' pregame preparation, doesn't it? 13 16 Detroit Lions 9-6 Through some miracle, or perhaps a statistical error, they ran for 210 yards against the Jets. What I want to know is: Was their game-planning set up that way, or was the run mode just something they fell into because Charlie Batch was so lousy? Now all they need for a playoff spot is a home victory over Chicago, but strange, eerie, creepy things have been known to happen in late December. 14 17 Pittsburgh Steelers 8-7 Steelers beat the Chargers, Jets lose at Baltimore, Vikes beat Indy and presto, you know what. Wouldn't it just be the perfect end to a goofy season if San Diego springs an upset? 15 19 Green Bay Packers 8-7 Plumes flying, bugles blowing, they come galloping across the frozen wastelands like a detachment of Cossack cavalry. Lots of help needed for playoff chances, but it has been a glorious December charge. 16 11 New York Jets 9-6 They've gone from division frontrunners to -- well, they'll just have to hope that the Ravens won't be in a belligerent mood Sunday. 17 7 Jacksonville Jaguars 7-8 My revenge is swift and terrible against those who have let me down after I stuck my neck out for them. A 10-spot drop might be a Power Rankings record. 18 18 Carolina Panthers 7-8 We have now passed the position at which letter-writers should seriously care. I will not take kindly to harassment at this level. 19 20 Kansas City Chiefs 7-8 OK, they upset Denver. I raised them a notch. I don't seriously see them as better than the folks above them. If you write a letter about the injustice I've done them, you'll get the same answer. 20 15 Buffalo Bills 7-8 The QB controversy is now officially on hold for another year. Something to look forward to in the offseason. 21 22 San Francisco 49ers 6-9 They're traveling to Denver, where the Broncos' only hope of a division title is Carolina beating the Raiders in Oakland. Being realists, the Broncos might play this one half-assed, opening the door to a Niners victory and a 7-9 record, better than anyone predicted back in August. 22 24 Seattle Seahawks 6-9 What I saw against Oakland was not an abundance of talent, but great intensity. Is this enough for Mike Holmgren to build on? Sure, if he settles on a QB he's comfortable with. 23 23 Dallas Cowboys 5-10 Are they serious about young Anthony Wright? If so, shouldn't they have prepared him better last weekend? 24 21 Washington Redskins 7-8 Over a drink, or perhaps a few of them, in the offseason, I want to ask Norv Turner if it really was his idea to start Deion over Darrell Green this year. It would be just my luck if Turner doesn't drink. Against the Steelers, Deion flatly gave up on certain routes. 25 26 New England Patriots 5-10 Carry the snow around in huge trucks, sneak into stadiums on Saturday nights, unload it and beat it quickly. Wonder how Bill Belichick will take to my new game plan? 26 25 Chicago Bears 4-11 Do they have the guts to draft another QB, assuming one is available at their spot? 27 28 Cincinnati Bengals 4-11 On a hunch, I was going to tape and watch the Jaguars-Bengals game, then for some unknown reason I switched, at the last moment, to Denver-K.C. This Bengals team intrigues me. I just know there are sleeper All-Pros there waiting to be discovered by yours truly. Gonna have to phone for some tapes. 28 29 Arizona Cardinals 3-12 On the same subject, I'm going to enjoy watching my tape of their Ravens contest, and I want to see Pat Tillman have a blinder of a game, so I can give him serious consideration for my strong safety spot. 29 30 Atlanta Falcons 3-12 No such problem here, although before he got hurt, Keith Brooking was my top-rated outside linebacker. (Speaking of All-Pro outside linebackers, what has happened to Derrick Brooks? Why is he missing so many tackles?) 30 27 Cleveland Browns 3-13 Certain changes must be made if you want to come back next year -- that's what Carmen Policy told Chris Palmer. Start with the tie. Then that checkered suit. And those suspenders, oh my god! 31 31 San Diego Chargers 1-14 In 1954 we lost to Army, 67-12. In the fourth quarter, the Cadets were saying, "Don't give up, Columbia. We're not passing anymore." I felt like smacking every one of them with a two-by-four.

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