Ah, the signs of fall.
A nip to the air, leaves slowly turning, and another pigskin pummeling by a pugnacious pack of pewter pirates.
More simply put, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are good. And we're not just talking about their defense anymore.
Heading to a crucial Week 4 matchup with the also unbeaten New York Jets, Tampa Bay is third in the league in scoring offense with 31.0 points per game and second in scoring defense with 8.7 points per game allowed.
A certain former Jets receiver is sure to be the talk of the week, but it's the Bucs' success in the red zone on both offense and defense that has them looking like favorites to play in Super Bowl XXXV in their home stadium.
Tampa Bay has 11 offensive possessions that it has taken inside of its opponents' 20-yard line. The Bucs have scored nine touchdowns and two field goals, for a red-zone touchdown percentage of 81.8. Last season Tampa Bay finished last in the NFL with a 33.3 touchdown percentage in the red zone, with only 15 touchdowns in 45 possessions.
On defense, the Bucs have allowed only three possessions inside their 20-yard line, and the opponents have but two field goals. That, of course, is a red-zone defensive touchdown percentage of 0.
And you can't argue with only six points surrendered in three trips inside of your 20-yard line. If the Bucs continue to allow only two points per red-zone penetration by their opponents, Paul Tagliabue will be handing the Vince Lombardi Trophy to Buccaneers owner Malcolm Glazer on Jan. 28, 2001.
| Week 4 NFL Preview |
| Lions (2-1) at Bears (0-3), 1 p.m. |
| Key Stat |
| 72: Difference in average passing yards per game for the Bears from last season (270) to this season (198). Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| Lions' front four of Robert Porcher, James Jones, Luther Elliss and Tracy Scroggins against scramble-happy Cade McNown (140 rushing yards). |
| Player to Watch |
| Desmond Howard, WR/KR, Detroit: Detroit's offense can't seem to get it going, but with an electric return man like Howard it doesn't take much to get into field-goal range. Howard leads the NFC at 23.7 yards per punt return and is third in the NFC with 29.9 yards per kickoff return. |
| |
| Eagles (1-2) at Saints (1-2), 1 p.m. |
| Key Stat |
| 103: Increase in total offense per game by the Eagles through three games this season (277.7) vs. the same point last season (174.7).
Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| Duce Staley (sixth in NFL with 272 yards rushing) against aggressive Saints linebackers Phil Clarke (16 tackles), Keith Mitchell (12) and Mark Fields (11). |
| Player to Watch |
| Hugh Douglas, DE, Philadelphia: Dominated the Packers' offensive line last week for 2 1/2 sacks, and is tied with Warren Sapp for NFL lead with 5 1/2. |
| |
| 49ers (0-3) at Cowboys (1-2), 1 p.m. |
| Key Stat |
| 91.6: Randall Cunningham's quarterback rating this season, better than his career rating of 81.6, and superior to Troy Aikman's career rating of 82.5. Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| 49ers running back Charlie Garner (5.4 yards per carry) against Cowboys safeties Darren Woodson (22 tackles) and George Teague (21). |
| Player to Watch |
| Emmitt Smith, RB, Dallas: The 49ers have held Smith to an average of only 70.3 rushing yards in six regular season meetings, well below his career average of 89.5 rushing yards per game. |
| |
| Bengals (0-2) at Ravens (2-1), 1 p.m. |
| Key Stat |
| 9: Career interceptions by Rod Woodson against the Bengals, his highest total against any team. Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| Struggling Ravens cornerbacks Chris McAlister and Duane Starks (allowing 240.0 passing yards per game) against speedy rookie Peter Warrick (19.4 yards per catch). |
| Player to Watch |
| Priest Holmes, RB, Baltimore: Has 459 yards rushing and three touchdowns in five games against Bengals (91.8 yards per game), but only 1,253 yards and five touchdowns in other 23 games of his career (54.5 yards per game). |
| |
| Patriots (0-3) at Dolphins (2-1), 1 p.m. |
| Key Stat |
| 28: Rushing yards needed by Thurman Thomas (11,972 to become the ninth player in NFL history with 12,000. Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| Patriots' porous offensive line (NFL worst 15 sacks allowed) against fourth-year Dolphins defensive end Jason Taylor (3 sacks this season, 20 in 47 career games). |
| Player to Watch |
| Olindo Mare, K, Miami: Perfect this season at 5-for-5 on field goals, Mare has made 82.5 percent of his field-goal attempts in his four-year career, and has hit 15 of his last 16. |
| |
| Rams (3-0) at Falcons (2-1), 1 p.m. |
| Key Stat |
| 56: Points by which the Rams outscored the Falcons in two meetings last season, a 41-13 win in Atlanta on Oct. 19 and a 35-7 win in St. Louis on Sept. 26. Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| Falcons wide receivers Shawn Jefferson (seventh in NFL with 262 receiving yards) and Terance Mathis (averaging a career high 15.6 yards per catch) against Rams secondary that is allowing 267.7 passing yards per game and 31.3 points per game. |
| Player to Watch |
| Kurt Warner, QB, St. Louis: On pace for a 6,512-yard season (1,221 yards through three games), Warner only needs 197 yards passing to surpass Drew Bledsoe's mark of 1,417 yards set in 1994 for the most passing yards in the first four games of a season. |
| |
| Titans (1-1) at Steelers (0-2), 1 p.m. |
| Key Stat |
| 15-1: Titans' record (.938 winning percentage) in their last 16 division games. Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| Steelers rookie offensive tackle Marvel Smith against Titans second-year defensive end Jevon Kearse (16 1/2 sacks in 18 career games). |
| Player to Watch |
| Neil O'Donnell, QB, Tennessee: The Titans will make a call Thursday or Friday on the status of Steve McNair, but O'Donnell will be ready to go if McNair can't. O'Donnell is 4-1 as a starter for the Titans, and ranks second on the Steelers' career passing list with 12,867 yards and 68 touchdowns. |
| |
| Packers (1-2) at Cardinals (1-1), 4:05 p.m. |
| Key Stat |
| 939: Total combined yards in the Packers' 49-24 season-ending win over the Cardinals at Lambeau Field on Jan. 2, 2000. Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| Cardinals' third-year tackle tandem of Ethan Brooks and Anthony Clement against Packers defensive lineman John Thierry (2 sacks) and Santana Dotson (1 1/2 sacks). |
| Player to Watch |
| Dorsey Levens, RB, Green Bay: Still rounding back into form after preseason knee surgery, Levens ran for 146 yards and four touchdowns on 24 carries in the Packers' blowout win over the Cards to close the 1999 regular season. |
| |
| Browns (2-1) at Raiders (2-1), 4:15 p.m. |
| Key Stat |
| 7: Years to the week since the Browns and Raiders last met, with the Browns pulling out a 19-16 win over the Raiders at Cleveland Municipal Stadium on Sept. 20, 1993. Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| Raiders' speed-power running combo of Napoleon Kaufman (NFL-leading 8.9 yards per carry) and Tyrone Wheatley (two rushing touchdowns) against Browns linebackers Jamir Miller (17 tackles, 2 sacks) and Wali Ranier (17 tackles). |
| Player to Watch |
| Sebastian Janikowski, K, Oakland: Strong-legged rookie is doing his job on kickoffs (four touchbacks tie him for the AFC lead) but has hit only 2 of 5 field-goal attempts. |
| |
| Seahawks (1-2) at Chargers (0-3), 4:15 p.m. |
| Key Stat |
| 7: Point differential between the Chargers (885) and Seahawks (878) in 42 meetings, with San Diego leading the series 22-20. Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| Ryan Leaf (21 interceptions in 321 career attempts) against Seahawks secondary of Shawn Springs, Willie Williams, Jay Bellamy and Reggie Tongue, with a combined 43 career interceptions. |
| Player to Watch |
| Ricky Watters, RB, Seattle: Coming off a 105-yard game against the Saints, Watters faces one of the toughest run defenses in the league, led by middle linebacker Junior Seau (27 tackles). |
| |
| Chiefs (1-2) at Broncos (2-1), 4:15 p.m. |
| Key Stat |
| 45-34: Chiefs' record against Broncos, including 16-10 win at Denver and 26-10 win in Kansas City last season. Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| Chiefs' rushing defense (allowing 96.3 yards per game) against second-ranked Broncos rushing offense (161.3 yards per game). |
| Player to Watch |
| Elvis Grbac, QB, Kansas City: Has a 2-1 record against the Broncos, and leads all NFL quarterbacks with eight touchdown passes. |
| |
| Jets (3-0) at Buccaneers (3-0), 4:15 p.m. |
| Key Stat |
| 18: Buccaneers' league-leading sack total, and the number of sacks by Warren Sapp in the past 19 games. Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| Jets' Pro Bowl center Kevin Mawae (league-high for centers with 6 1/2 sacks allowed) against Bucs defensive tackle Sapp (48 1/2 sacks in 80 career games). |
| Player to Watch |
| Keyshawn Johnson, WR, Tampa Bay: Had 305 catches for 4,108 yards and 31 touchdowns in four season with the Jets. |
| |
| Redskins (1-2) at Giants (3-0), 8:35 p.m. |
| Key Stat |
| 326: NFL-leading rushing yardage total for Tiki Barber, already surpassing his 1999 total of 258 yards. Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| Redskins' right tackle Jon Jansen (5.3 yards per carry when running to right side of line in 1999) against Giants Pro Bowl defensive end Michael Strahan (59 1/2 negative-yardage plays over past four seasons). |
| Player to Watch |
| Kerry Collins, QB, New York: Completing 71.3 percent of his passes (second in the league to Kurt Warner's 71.6 percent) and has thrown three touchdowns to only one interception. |
| |
| Jaguars (2-0) at Colts (1-1), 9:00 p.m. Monday |
| Key Stat |
| 56.8: League-leading punting average for Colts punter Hunter Smith. Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| Colts' versatile second-year running back Edgerrin James (291 total yards and four touchdowns in two games) against Jaguars linebackers Hardy Nickerson (20 tackles, 1 sack) and Kevin Hardy (14 tackles). |
| Player to Watch |
| Tony Brackens, DE, Jacksonville: Jaguars' franchise player (32 1/2 sacks in 62 career games) will be asked to put pressure on Peyton Manning, sacked only three times in Colts' two games this season and 14 times in 560 pass attempts in 1999. |
