When you throw down your hard-earned money for a ticket to an NFL game, you hope to get a competitive, 60-minute dogfight.
Unfortunately, more often than not, the result is decided long before the final gun.
But the past few weeks have featured an uncharacteristic number of tight games, with three of the past four Monday night games being decided on the final play.
Through the first nine weeks of the season, 22 of 128 games (17.2 percent) were decided with less than two minutes to play or in overtime.
In the past two weeks that number jumped to an amazing 36.7 percent, as 11 of 30 games were decided after the two-minute warning.
The average margins of victory in Weeks 9 (8.64 points per game), 10 (8.87 points) and 11 (9.13 points) were three of the lowest four of the season. At the other end of the spectrum, Week 4 was filled with blowouts, seven games being decided by two touchdowns or more for an average margin of 15 points per game. For the season the average margin of victory is 10.97 points.
| Week 12 NFL Preview |
| Bills (6-4) at Chiefs (5-5), 1 p.m. |
| Key Stat |
| 68: League-leading reception total for Bills wide receiver Eric Moulds. Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| Chiefs' struggling running game (28th in league with 76.7 yards per game) against aggressive Bills middle linebacker Sam Cowart (111 total tackles, three sacks, two interceptions). |
| Player to Watch |
| Elvis Grbac, QB, Kansas City: Chiefs' veteran signal caller has thrown 14 touchdowns in five wins but only five in their five losses. |
| |
Browns (3-8) at Titans (8-2), 1 p.m. |
| Key Stat |
| 30-23: Browns' record against the Titans/Oilers (.566 winning percentage), though Tennessee has won the past three.
Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| Titans defensive end Jevon Kearse (4 1/2 sacks in past five games) against Browns right tackle Steve Zahursky. |
| Player to Watch |
| Steve McNair, QB, Tennessee: Is 2-0 against Cleveland and an impressive 20-10 against AFC Central opponents. |
| |
Raiders (8-2) at Saints (7-3), 1 p.m. |
Key Stat |
| 1/25/81: Date of Raiders' last win in New Orleans, a 27-10 victory against the Eagles in Super Bowl XV. Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| Saints running back Chad Morton (12 carries for 33 yards, nine catches for 60 yards) against Raiders linebackers Greg Biekert (85 total tackles, 3 1/2 stuffs), Elijah Alexander (44 total tackles, 3 1/2 stuffs) and William Thomas (52 total tackles, three stuffs). |
| Player to Watch |
| La'Roi Glover, DT, New Orleans: League's most underrated defensive lineman has 13 sacks, two stuffs, one fumble recovery and 37 total tackles. |
| |
| Buccaneers (6-4) at Bears (2-8), 1 p.m. |
| Key Stat |
| .667: Bears' winning percentage (30-15) in 45 games against the Buccaneers, though Tampa Bay has won the past six by an average score of 26-9 and head coach Tony Dungy is 7-2 against the Bears. Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| Bears rookie middle linebacker Brian Urlacher (81 total tackles, six sacks, 3 1/2 stuffs) against Buccaneers running back Warrick Dunn (704 total yards) and Mike Alstott (only 41 carries in past five games). |
| Player to Watch |
| Martin Gramatica, K, Tampa Bay: Bucs' diminutive kicker has made 12 field goals in a row and is on pace to tie Falcons kicker Morten Andersen's single-season record of eight 50-yard field goals. |
| |
| Colts (7-3) at Packers (4-6), 1 p.m. |
| Key Stat |
| 42: Consecutive starts by Colts quarterback Peyton Manning, second to Packers quarterback Brett Favre's streak of 135 consecutive starts. Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| Colts quarterback Peyton Manning (on pace for career-high 4,720 yards) against Packers free safety Darren Sharper (nine interceptions in past 26 games). |
| Player to Watch |
| Edgerrin James, RB, Indianapolis: A big game by Edge usually equals a win for the Colts; Indy is 14-1 when James rushes for 100 yards. He's averaging 4.5 yards per carry this season and has 681 yards rushing and seven touchdowns in the past five games. |
| |
| Panthers (4-6) at Vikings (8-2), 1 p.m. |
| Key Stat |
| 15: Catches needed by Vikings wide receiver Cris Carter to become the second player (49ers wide receiver Jerry Rice has 1,255) with 1,000 career receptions. Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| Panthers quarterback Steve Beuerlein (9,522 yards passing in past 38 games after only 11,953 yards in his first 91 games) against Vikings secondary that is ranked 26th in the league, allowing 225.2 yards per game through the air. |
| Player to Watch |
| Robert Smith, RB, Minnesota: Leads the NFC with 1,025 yards rushing and is on pace for a Marshall Faulk -like 2,043 total yards. |
| |
| Cardinals (3-7) at Eagles (7-4), 1 p.m. |
| Key Stat |
| 2: Win differential in the 105 meetings between these two teams (Cardinals lead series 51-49-5), with Arizona winning five of the past six. Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| Panthers wide receivers Donald Hayes and Muhsin Muhammad (combined 95 catches for 1,300 yards and six touchdowns) against Cardinals secondary that has intercepted only three passes this season. |
| Player to Watch |
| Simeon Rice, DE, Arizona: Struggling this season after a contract holdout (12 total tackles, three sacks, one stuff, one fumble recovery), but has four sacks in his past three games against the Eagles. |
| |
| Lions (6-4) at Giants (7-3), 1 p.m. |
| Key Stat |
| 18: NFC-leading interception total for the Lions, helping them to a NFC-best plus-10 turnover margin. Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| Giants running backs Tiki Barber and Ron Dayne (combined 1,263 yards rushing and eight touchdowns) against Lions linebackers Stephen Boyd (77 total tackles, two stuffs) and Chris Claiborne (62 total tackles, 5 1/2 stuffs). |
| Player to Watch |
| Bryant Westbrook, CB, Detroit: Underachieving former first-round pick has finally been playing up to his potential, with four interceptions in the past four games after making only six in his first 47 games. |
| |
| Bengals (2-8) at Patriots (2-8), 1 p.m. |
| Key Stat |
| 207: Career games for Patriots left tackle Bruce Armstrong, which will break Julius Adams' team record of 206. Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| Patriots running back Kevin Faulk (746 total yards) against Bengals linebacker Takeo Spikes (87 total tackles, 4 1/2 stuffs). |
| Player to Watch |
| Terry Glenn, WR, New England: Has a big new contract, but production has been average so far this season, as Glenn ranks only 22nd in catches (48), 30th in receiving yards (569) and is tied for 22nd in touchdown receptions (four). |
| |
| Chargers (0-10) at Broncos (6-4), 4:05 p.m. |
| Key Stat |
| 244: Rushing yards by Chargers running back Jermaine Fazande in two games against the Broncos (122 yards per game), while he has only 379 in his other 12 games (31.6 yards per game). Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| Broncos defensive tackle Trevor Pryce (29 total tackles, eight sacks, two stuffs) against Chargers interior offensive lineman Kevin Gogan, Roman Fortin and Raleigh Roundtree. |
| Player to Watch |
| Gus Frerotte, QB, Denver: The Broncos will miss not only Brian Griese's leadership, but also his accuracy. Griese has a career quarterback rating of 86.4 and completion percentage of 60.3, while Frerotte has a 74.3 rating and 53.8 completion percentage. |
| |
| Jets (6-4) at Dolphins (8-2), 4:05 p.m. |
| Key Stat |
| 34-34-1: Series record for the 69 games between the Jets and Dolphins, though New York has won the past five to tie up the series. Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| Jets quarterback Vinny Testaverde (on pace to throw 24 interceptions) against Dolphins defense that leads the NFL with 19 interceptions and has an AFC-leading 34 sacks. |
| Players to Watch |
| Lamar Smith, RB, Miami: Has rushed for 825 yards and 10 touchdowns (after gaining only 1,948 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns in previous 70 games) and is on pace for 1,320 yards and 16 touchdowns. |
| |
| Falcons (3-8) at 49ers (3-8), 4:15 p.m. |
| Key Stat |
| .612: 49ers' winning percentage against the Falcons (41-25-1), including eight consecutive wins at home. Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| 49ers quarterback Jeff Garcia (league-leading 24 touchdown passes, only seven interceptions in 376 attempts this season) against Falcons cornerbacks Ray Buchanan and Ashley Ambrose (66 combined career interceptions). |
| Player to Watch |
| Terrell Owens, WR, San Francisco: Garcia's favorite target is on pace for 102 catches for 1,457 yards and 17 touchdowns. |
| |
| Cowboys (4-6) at Ravens (7-4), 4:15 p.m. |
| Key Stat |
| 2.8: Yards per carry allowed by the Ravens, the best in the league. Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| Cowboys running back Emmitt Smith (career average of 89.2 rushing yards per game) against Ravens defense that is allowing only 65.5 yards per game. |
| Player to Watch |
| Trent Dilfer, QB, Baltimore: Has rejuvenated the Ravens' offense the past two weeks, throwing for 525 yards and five touchdowns. |
| |
| Jaguars (3-7) at Steelers (5-5), 8:35 p.m. |
| Key Stat |
| 9-2: Record of the home team in the 11-game history of this series, which the Jaguars lead 6-5. Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| Jaguars running back Fred Taylor (career average of 79.3 rushing yards per game) against staunch run defense of the Steelers which is allowing only 96.4 yards rushing per game. |
| Player to Watch |
| Joey Porter, LB, Pittsburgh: Underrated linebacker has been the heart of the Steelers' impressive defense, with 36 total tackles, seven sacks, one interception and two fumble recoveries. |
| |
| Redskins (6-4) at Rams (8-2), 9:00 p.m. Monday |
| Key Stat |
| .708: Redskins' winning percentage (17-6-1) against the Rams, including wins in three of the past four. Stats matchup | Preview |
| Key Matchup |
| Rams quarterback Trent Green (4,734 yards and 35 touchdowns in 21 career games) against Redskins cornerbacks Darrell Green, Champ Bailey and Deion Sanders (combined 106 career interceptions). |
| Player to Watch |
| Stephen Davis, RB, Washington: Redskins' durable feature back has 2,393 yards rushing and 27 touchdowns in the past 24 games, and needs only 12 yards to become the fifth Redskin with consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. |
