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Brett Hull Tom Pidgeon/Getty Images/NHLI |
Jaromir Jagr hit the 500 mark the other night, and Brett Hull's next goal will be his 700th. So he certainly has a nice head start. Of course, Hull turns 39 this summer while Jagr will be 31 in two weeks. Time is on Jaro's side.
This is not a discussion for stats and paces and ratios, however. Though there are some interesting ways to look at it: Hull averages .6 goals per game and averaged nearly 45 goals over his first 15 seasons. Jagr, who scores .5 goals per game, averaged 39 goals over his first 12 seasons. Hull has scored fewer than 30 only three times, and never fewer than 24. Jagr, though it seems like he has had off-years, has never checked in with less than 27. (And that was in his rookie season. He has topped 30 every year since.)
Basically, what you have are two of the most consistent goal-scorers in NHL history. It doesn't really matter who finishes with more, but in this business we specialize in things that don't matter.
Jagr already is mingling with the Hall of Famers at 500, but it's a long way from 500 to 600. Even longer from 600 to 700, and I don't know if he has that longevity in him. That's five seasons at 40 goals per just to be where Hull is right now. He's capable of that, physically. But given the sometimes joyless nature of Jagr's game, it's hard to see him pumping in 40 goals at age 36.
Jagr is the Scottie Pippen of hockey. At first blush, it might have appeared that he was dimming his own star alongside Mario Lemieux. But after he gets out on his own, out of the shadow, you find that his impact is not in direct relationship with his stats. Still great, but still missing that certain je ne sais quois.
Hull is the exact opposite. He's all je ne sais quois, a michievious imp flashing his dimples to the principal and promising to never, ever do it again. We should all enjoy our work the way Hull has embraced his for 15 years. Where Jagr has been the tortured artist in scoring 500, Hull has laughed his way to 700. Child's play.
Hull could pass Mike Gartner (708) and Phil Esposito (717) this season to climb into fourth place on the all-time list. Next year, he could clip Marcel Dionne (731) for third. After that, it's only Howe (801) and Gretzky (894).
Hull could set his sights on Howe if he wanted, because he has 100 goals left in him. But I'm thinking Hull puts in two more years and finishes somewhere between 750 and 775, happy enough to be third all-time. And Jagr? Give him four more years and checking out around 650.