Posted: Tue April 21, 1998

Sports Illustrated hockey writer Kostya Kennedy will answer your NHL questions through the Stanley Cup Finals. Click here to send a question.

First off, I want to thank everybody for writing in. It's good to know so many minds are out there cogitating on the state and fate of things in the NHL. We're in for a fine postseason, I think, with a lot of closely matched series and some compelling stories within them. The Western Conference, in particular, should yield some extremely entertaining games.

Ultimately, I think the Red Wings will repeat, but part of what makes this tournament so compelling—as we discuss in my Inside the NHL column in this week's Sports Illustrated—is how unpredictable it is. Get ready for a couple of intense months, puck people. And keep those questions coming.

As you know, the NHL is famous for first-round upsets. What underdog team in this year's playoffs is capable of pulling off a surprising upset?
—Dave Cook, Toronto

Both of the seven seeds could win.

Oilers vs. Avalanche: This should be one of the most enjoyable series to watch because the Oilers have the speed to keep up with the Avalanche, and if Curtis Joseph plays anything close to how he played against the Stars in last year's first round, Colorado will have a tough time. Edmonton doesn't have the depth or the experience of the Avalanche, though, so a longer series would benefit Colorado.

Canadiens vs. Penguins: The key for the Canadiens is somehow slowing down the Jaromir Jagr/Ron Francis line, so that will be Montreal's main focus. Jagr will score but if the Habs can keep him from dominating, they could win on the strength of better second and third lines.

The sixth-seeded Sabres also have a good chance to upset the third-seeded Flyers. They'll use guys like Matthew Barnaby and Bob Boughner to try to minimize Philadelphia's physical superiority. Dominik Hasek is determined to have a strong showing after his injury-exacerbated breakdown in the playoffs last year.

Do you think San Jose, with all of its playoff experience and hot play of late, can knock off Dallas and be the surprise of the playoffs?
—Jeff, Auburn, Calif.

I think it's too tough an order for San Jose. They do have plenty of experience but many of the Sharks' veteran players are marginal or supplemental guys. The key to this team is the play of Jeff Friesen and Owen Nolan. Sharks management loves Nolan but he just doesn't dominate games the way he should; the 21-year-old Friesen is still developing. The Stars might lose a game or two, but that's it.

You mention Dallas and Detroit a lot when picking the West—I think St. Louis clearly gets no respect in the hockey press. The Blues, who could face Dallas in the second round, were 4-2 against the Stars this year. Add to that over-.500 records against Detroit and New Jersey for this season, and I wonder why St. Louis doesn't deserve the darkhorse label. Why don't you think the Blues can win the West?
—Mike Coats, St. Louis

The Blues are definitely a darkhorse team. They have a lot of pluggers to go along with Brett Hull and Chris Pronger, and if Grant Fuhr is healthy, they could have first-rate goaltending. A great power play also makes St. Louis a dangerous team.

I think the Stars and Red Wings have better overall talent, which is why I'm picking them over the Blues. Also, I wonder whether there's a deeply respected leader on that St. Louis team—someone for the Blues to rally around when the going gets hairy in the playoffs. I don't put much stock in regular season head-to-head records.

I, for one, certainly respect the Blues—they're a tough team and I think they'll beat Los Angeles in the first round. I just think they're a cut below the West's elite.

How far can the Caps get?
—Nate Brubaker, Washington, D.C.

I like the Caps to beat the Bruins in the first round, and they could go to the conference finals. I'd like Washington in any second-round matchup except against the Sabres or Devils. Olie Kolzig is an aggresive goalie, and how he plays as the pressure builds is a key. Bill Ranford is a good backup, but you never like to go away from your No. 1 keeper in the playoffs. Petr Bondra is on fire, Brian Bellows seems to be a legitimate secondary scoring threat, and the Caps' big defense can control parts of games. This could be a fun playoffs for Washington fans.

The Edmonton Oilers have one of the best second half records in the NHL. How far do you see them going, and what, in your opinion, are the missing pieces to make this franchise a legitimate Stanley Cup contender once again?
—Brian Cameron, Fort St. John, British Columbia

The West has so much talent this year, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Oilers beat Colorado in the first round or even get to the conference finals.

The first thing Edmonton's new ownership has to do is keep president/GM Glen Sather on board and give him some money to work with. The Oilers could use a goaltender who's more consistent than CuJo (that's a tough commodity, though, and Joseph has thrived in the playoffs in the past) but mainly they need more depth at center and right wing—particularly in light of Andrei Kovalenko's disappointing play. Really, though, this team isn't that far away.

How far do you think the Montreal Canadiens will get if their No. 1 line of Shayne Corson, Mark Recchi and Saku Koivu gets hot?
—Roy Alaska, Ottawa

Whatever that line does, I don't think this team will get past the second round. They have good balance on the forward lines, but the Canadiens are missing a really explosive force. They're also thin on defense once you get past their top three guys—Vladimir Malakhov, Dave Manson and Patrice Brisebois—so the blueliners could wear down if that first series against Pittsburgh goes a long way, which it probably will.

Do you think New Jersey center Jason Arnott will be able to turn his season around over the course of the playoffs? Will he be able to recapture the glory he had in his first year?
—Rob Loder, Presque Isle, Maine

Arnott can be a force for the Devils in the playoffs. He's not going to score all that much, but he gets shots on net. With Dave Andreychiuk, Bobby Holik and Randy McKay set on one line, Arnott will provide some good size when they're on the bench. If any forward really shines on the Devils, it will be Holik. Arnott can contribute in a solid but unspectacular way.

This is a key time for Arnott and I think he'll be smart enough to follow coach Jacques Lemaire's system to the letter.

What's your take on the Toronto Maple Leafs future?
—Warren Cordeiro, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan

After two years of missing the playoffs there will definitely be changes.

President/GM Ken Dryden is so intelligent and respected around the league that he'll continue to be entrusted to right the ship. Dryden would probably like to give up the general manager half of his duties, but he'll only do that if he can bring in a new GM he really trusts—and Dryden can be very demanding.

Whatever happens, associate GM Mike Smith, who handled the club's day-to-day operations this year and has gotten much of the blame for the team's stagnancy, will almost certainly be reassigned. Coach Mike Murphy's future depends on what else happens in the front office. He's a frank guy and some players swear by him. My feeling is that Dryden would like to keep him on, but would let a new GM make the call.

Which defenseman do you think will win this year's Norris Trophy, and does Nicklas Lidstrom of the Red Wings have a chance?
—Greg Jenkins, Sterling Heights, Mich.

I'd give it to Rob Blake. He's not only been the Kings' best defenseman, but he's also been their best player and has totally taken over games. He is the team's unquestioned leader and should also get some votes for the Hart Trophy.

Lidstrom, though, could win the award—he, Blake and the Blues' Chris Pronger will likely be the three finalists. I think Lidstrom is excellent, and he can really shut down big scorers, but I'd give the nod to Blake because Lidstrom has had such a strong supporting cast—he's often paired with Larry Murphy, for instance—while Blake has been with Mattias Norstrom, who had only played 134 NHL games before this season.

Send a question to Kostya Kennedy, and check back Friday afternoon to read more of his responses.

Previous NHL Playoff Mailbags
April 16: Setting the stage for the scramble