Southeast Division Preview

'Canes will blow away the rest of the division yet again

As one might expect, the Carolina Hurricanes and Washington Capitals dominated divisional play against the Atlanta Thrashers, Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers. Both teams snatched 28 points in their 20 games in the Southeast, the most points garnered within a division in the NHL. Not surprisingly, the 'Canes and the Caps played one another virtually even, separated by a single point.

The question this year is can those two teams expect to dominate the division to that degree again? Probably not. Slowly, almost imperceptibly, the Southleast is turning into the youth blessed, with some of the games brightest young players congregating in the south. Already home to Dany Heatley, Ilya Kovalchuk, Vincent Lecavalier, Brad Richards, Kristian Huselius and Roberto Luongo; enter Alexander Svitov, Stephen Weiss and Jay Bouwmeester. Will they youngsters keep Carolina and Washington from a guaranteed top three slot in the postseason? Not this season ... but soon.

A taste of success is a powerful elixir. Littering the sports landscape are examples of teams that get close to winning, continue to improve, developing the resolve required to compete consistently for the ultimate prize.

The spring trip to the finals was an energetic and euphoric experience for the Hurricanes. It was also rather unexpected. Not that the 'Canes lacked respect; it was just that they lacked an identity and as a result remained largely unknown and vastly overlooked.

No more. The league saw a team that has the goods to be a contender for a long time, with veteran leadership, developing depth up front, a steady, mobile defense and dependable goaltending. Those attributes came together beautifully in a structured system that highlights attention to detail -- a style of play in which execution of the little things added up to an appearance in the big dance.

Not that there aren't areas to improve upon. Taking care of business on home ice is one such area. The 'Canes were only three games above .500 last season. In fact, they were still only one above break even in the playoffs on home ice. Further, until the postseason, the Hurricanes were relative patsies when matched up against teams with winning records, going 16-23-9.

On special teams, they went on the power play more than any team in the NHL, scoring 63 times and accounting for over 29 percent of their offense, the highest ratio in the East. Surprising though, given their defensive diligence, they finished below 85 percent in penalty-killing efficiency, ranking them 20th in the league.

Mind you, most of these areas are cumulative in nature, meaning these measures should improve as the team does. And this team should be better because of what it learned from its playoff accomplishment. The Hurricanes made virtually no changes to their roster -- why would they? -- other than letting winger Martin Gelinas leave for Calgary. The 'Canes probably will promote from within, with young banger Brad DeFauw and slick scorer Jeff Heerema eager to prove their readiness.

Their acumen on the nuances has allowed the Hurricanes to develop into a very good team. To establish themselves as truly worthy of recognition among the league's elite, continued growth is required -- and should be forthcoming this season.

No one can accuse general manager George McPhee of taking the safe or conventional approach in pulling his team together -- not when he marries one of the world’s most celebrated, talented and enigmatic players with an unheralded and unheard of coach.

What the Capitals have are stars at every position surrounded by question marks; a rookie coaching staff that has to demonstrate that it has most of the answers that eluded the previous regime, as well as questions pertaining to the impact of replacing centerman Adam Oates with free agent Robert Lang. Because of the star appeal -- Olaf Kolzig in goal, Sergei Gonchar on defense and Peter Bondra and Jaromir Jagr up front -- expectations are high. Watching first-year coach Bruce Cassidy dance the dance of stars will be interesting.

All of which points to the start of the season for the Capitals, who in recent seasons have slumbered through the early schedule. The Caps point to their torrid finish as a sign of things to come after failing to make the playoffs last year. For all involved, that same 9-2-1-1 record from early spring would certainly work better this October, if for no other reason than to allow all the newness a chance to set.

Compromising the possibility of a strong start is the fact that two important pieces up front, Andrei Nikolishin and Danius Zubrus, are holding out. All of which means Kolzig needs to be sharp early. Even when he won the Vezina in 2000, he did so on the strength of a superior second half. Jagr also must put his stamp on this team on the ice. Last season, his stats were fine when you factor in his nagging injuries, but they led to nothing of significance -- hardly enough from the game's preeminent one-on-one player. Regarding the matter of Lang for Oates, he is younger and swifter afoot than the aging star, but Lang is not the set up man that Oates is on the power play, nor is he as adept in the face-off circle. There are definite trade-offs, but overall the Caps should be better off with Lang in the lineup rather than the unhappy and brooding Oates.

Then there is the supporting cast. As last year's injuries to Steve Konowalchuk and Jeff Halpern up front and veteran rearguard Calle Johansson proved, Washington's depth wasn't great and remains dubious this year. Injuries still are slowing Halpern and Johansson as the season approaches. That may force Cassidy's hand. Youngsters Nolan Yonkman and Jean-Francois Fortin might see substantial minutes and juniors grad Brian Sutherby could challenge for a spot on the fourth line. So, if postseason action is to return to the docket this spring in D.C., the Capitals' top players need to stay healthy and return to form immediately.

There are few examples that end happily when an upstart coach imposes a philosophy that seems counter to the primary skills of his personnel, especially when the conflict turns personal with the organization's top talent. Can the Lightning prove the exception?

It is hard to discern what exactly the plan is in Tampa Bay. They drafted several scorers out of juniors over the last several seasons, only to deploy them in a low-risk, defense-at-all-cost system under coach John Tortorella. Instead of modifying his system or mindset to nurture, develop and take advantage of the offensive skills these youngsters possess, he has imposed his will entirely. The result? A rift with Vincent Lecavalier that is still festering, creating a less than ideal atmosphere -- one in which making progress is hard to imagine.

True, Tortorella is teaching accountability. But, is the cost too high when weighed against the results? Discord aside, for all of the defensive proselytizing, Tampa Bay still ranked only 20th in goals allowed. And that is with the benefit of having one of the league's premier puckstoppers in Nikolai Khabibulin. Beyond that, the Lightning were 11 games under .500 in close games-- those decided by two goals or fewer. If you base your philosophical foundation on defending, isn't your strength supposed to be close games? Another hallmark of defensive-oriented teams is success on the road, which also eluded the Lightning, ranking 27th away from home -- 12 games below .500.

Maybe the contradictions come with all of the turmoil over the past several years, with new regimes installed intermittently, each time routinely starting over. New general manager Jay Feaster said that the team acquired Khabibulin late in the 2000-01 season to "give the team a chance to win on a nightly basis." Under the current conditions, all Khabibulin is able to do is play just well enough for the Lightning to lose. The team managed just 178 goals last season, half a goal a game less than they allowed. Maybe the tact should be to loosen the reigns a bit, see what offensive potential lurks just below the surface. Let Lecavalier freelance. See if Sheldon Keefe can score as he did in the OHL; Demand that Fredrik Modin look for his shot every time down the wing and that Brad Richards get him the puck. After all, Khabibulin should be able to compensate for the odd defensive lapse resulting from a liberated offensive spirit.

It won't happen, though, especially when you consider the fine all-around game of Alexander Svitov. At 19, he would seem to be the prototypical player for Tortorella's teachings. Does he supply enough depth at center to save the Bolts from the frustration of losing many more close games? Possibly. Svitov is a tremendous talent. So, too, is Lecavalier. With the coach not giving in, it will be up to Lecavalier to give more for the franchise to progress.

General manager Don Waddell trotted out a plan of patience and perseverance four years ago and to his credit, he has unflinchingly followed through. The building process has yielded young talent, but little on-ice return. Indications of vindication should appear in various forms this season.

This fourth season means it is time to factor in the standings when gauging improvement in Atlanta. Look no further than the addition of four NHL veterans in forwards Shawn McEachern and Slava Kozlov and defensemen Richard Smehlik and Uwe Krupp for proof that competitiveness is moving up the priority list. As it should. The Thrashers boast a handful of sparkling young talents around which to build, led by Calder winner Dany Heatley and electrifying Ilya Kovalchuk.

These young stars are the type of players who can make a difference in close games. Equally compelling is that both embrace the role -- they want to be the go-to guys in crunch time. The problem for both rookies last year, and for the Thrashers overall, was they were out of too many games too early, losing a league-high 25 games by three or more goals. Enter the vets to add depth and balance to the roster, both offensively and defensively. This year's edition will display better puck possession, which should drastically reduce the lopsided affairs, meaning the Thrashers will play many more close games. By default, then, the Thrashers stand to improve defensively, harkening back to the mindset of "the best defense is a good offense."

This line of thinking bodes well for the Thrashers. Despite ranking 30th in goals against, they fared well in one-goal games, going 13-14. Maybe more encouraging is the fact that the Thrashers won 14 of their 19 games last year against teams with winning records. If they build on that trait while improving against teams of similar ilk, the standings will no longer be a place of pain. Granted, the middle of the roster has to firm up, with forwards Patrick Stefan, Tomi Kallio and Lubos Bartecko all needing to produce points on a consistent basis. If this trio commits on a nightly basis, long gone will be the team's penchant for extended winless streaks -- a tendency that the Thrashers must rid themselves of in year four.

Still, nowhere is the potential for gains more possible than on the power play. Adding specialists Kozlov and McEachern to the precocious pair of Heatley and Kovalchuk legitimizes the power-play unit. Ranked 29th a season ago, the Thrashers should make a significant jump to the middle of the pack with the man advantage this year. If they do, their ascent in the Eastern Conference standings will likewise commence.

Under new management and with several talented youngsters, the Panthers finally seem to be on the right track. It is just that the end of the line remains way, way off in the distance.

If head coach Mike Keenan was looking for a challenging project, he found one in Florida. After taking over the team in the midst of last season, Keenan knows what he has at his disposal; he also knows all too well what he doesn’t have. More pertinent, Keenan knows what he needs.

The Panthers have a legitimate No. 1 netminder in Roberto Luongo. They have a free spirit who can rush the puck from the backline in Sandis Ozolinsh. And they have four young forwards in Kristian Huselius, Niklas Hagman, Marcus Nilsson and Stephen Weiss around which to form the basis of their four-line rotation.

For the most part, that's it. The rest of the roster is comprised of inconsistent NHLers and guys who annually split time between the NHL and AHL. It's definitely a patchwork proposition at this point. Especially when you look at the offense, or better put, the lack thereof. Only Valeri Bure has ever scored as many as 30 goals in a campaign in this league, and that was a couple of seasons ago. He is coming off an injury-filled year in which he slumped to eight goals in 31 games. Keep in mind that the Panthers had the second-lowest scoring percentage in the league last year, scoring just over eight goals per 100 shots on goal. The prospect of that changing this time around is negligible.

Compounding the offensive dilemma is the fact that Keenan coached teams like to forecheck aggressively to generate much of the offense. That requires size and speed. The Panthers skilled guys are smallish and not very aggressive, while their burly bangers are plodding. Again, with that dubious combination, the likelihood of success on the forecheck is minimal.

Overall, the Panthers have some of the pieces necessary to build a contender. They have several skilled 19-year-olds in their system, most of whom won’t play until next year at the earliest. That does not apply to defenseman Jay Bouwmeester. He will play this year and has a chance to the Panthers' top defenseman almost immediately. If Bouwmeester performs to that level, a Calder might be in the offing. It might also tell you all you need to know as to where the Panthers are in their rebuilding process.

Darren Eliot, a former NHL goaltender, is a hockey analyst for CNNSI.com.

 

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