 |
| |
|
 |
 |
The problem with predictions Posted: Monday October 28, 2002 4:12 PM
The trouble with preseason predictions is that they are so easily dashed. You go from summertime scuttlebutt to regular-season reality in a hurry. The October output of the Boston Bruins, St. Louis Blues, Washington Capitals and N.Y. Rangers proves that on several different levels. In Boston, the external buzz surrounding the team centered on what the team had lost, namely its top scorer, No. 1 netminder and a top-four defenseman. Overlooked by many outsiders was the internal focus within the locker room -- a perspective shared by players and coaches that highlights what they have in their midst: still enough quality forwards to be dangerous offensively, and more skill and mobility on the blue line to augment the attack. A seven-game unbeaten streak is compelling evidence that the addition of Bryan Berard via free agency and Jonathan Girard from the AHL, combined with the continued development of Nick Boynton, makes the Bruins much more potent from the blue line. Supporting evidence is the five goals already contributed by the rearguards, as compared with 14 in all of last season. Further demonstrating their collective soul is the Bruins’ continued resilience in the face of personnel losses, namely putting up a sizeable undefeated streak while losing Sergei Samsonov and Martin Lapointe to injury. So far, the Bruins are proof positive that measuring a team’s mental makeup in August is nearly impossible. Along those same lines, what are we to make of the Blues’ fast start? As if losing captain Chris Pronger for an extended period of time wasn’t debilitating enough, the Blues have won while reaching as far down to the five-hole (pun intended) on their goaltending depth chart. Instead of this unparalleled decimation of dependable puck-stoppers exacerbating a situation that was widely predicted to be difficult to overcome without Pronger, the Blues have started strongly in the Central Division. Then, general manager Larry Pleau quietly and efficiently bolstered his roster by add two veterans -- forward Martin Rucinsky and goaltender Tom Barrasso. By defying the early-season possibility of demise, the Blues miraculously are in a position to thrive, or at the very least to survive. Predictable? Hardly. What about the early October touch-ups by GM George McPhee in Washington? No matter where you thought the Caps might finish when looking at them in August and September, you had to be off base in some manner due to his deft handy work. First, he gets one of his two-holdout forwards, Danius Zubrus, signed right before the season. Then, he shores up his defense with the waiver draft selection of Rick Berry from Pittsburgh. Finally, still addressing a need up front, McPhee acquires the hard charging, bump-and-grind gamer Mike Grier from Edmonton. Add those pieces to a reinvigorated Jaromir Jagr and Olaf Kolzig, the return to health of linchpin defenseman Calle Johansson and suddenly the Caps go from hard to peg to hard to beat. On the flip side of those over-delivering are an array of examples of teams failing to meet early prognostications. In New York, the Rangers much ballyhooed pair of free agents, Bobby Holik and Darius Kasparaitis have struggled mightily. Not surprisingly, the Rangers haven’t gotten it together as a team. Still, when it comes to undermining predictions and under-delivery, nothing is more insidious than failed goaltending. The San Jose Sharks stubbornly began the season without goaltender Evgeni Nabokov and proceeded to strengthen his holdout position with their weak play. Suddenly, the Sharks hastily sign Nabokov and proceed to win their next two games -- without Nabokov even playing yet. What’s that all about? Confidence? Mindset? Coincidence? And in Edmonton, workhorse Tommy Salo might say he is over the "Blast from Belarus" from last February’s Olympic fiasco, but his tentative play thus far for the Oilers indicates otherwise. Meanwhile, in the East, Montreal looked poised to improve on last season’s first round playoff victory behind the goaltending of Jose Theodore. The snag for the Habs so far is that Theodore has inexplicably stopped being effective -- it is the only significant stop he has made this season -- in one of the most precipitous performance dropoffs ever witnessed. And for the Islanders, Chris Osgood -- so good for the Islanders at the start of last season -- has a save percentage befitting a lacrosse goalie and is at a loss to explain his sudden ineffectiveness. So, while forecasting is fun and the substance for many barstool bards, the practice is fraught with variables. Take them for what they are worth: a little insight mixed with opinion, bias and guesswork. Oh and by the way, is it too early to inscribe the Jack Adams Trophy with Jacques Lemaire’s name? Maybe, maybe not. Darren Eliot, a former NHL goaltender, is a hockey analyst for CNNSI.com.
|
|
|||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||
