The loneliest number

Lightning, Blackhawks fighting to avoid dreaded ninth place

As the final quarter of the NHL regular-season schedule approaches, the playoff races in both conferences look to include nine teams. That means one team in the East and one in the West face bitter disappointment come April. Entering Monday's games, the Tampa Bay Lightning resided in the Eastern Conference nine-hole, while the Chicago Blackhawks held that spot out west.

Looking at the Lightning, their postseason aspirations rest solely on the play of Nikolai Khabibulin down the stretch. He has not had a stellar season by his standards, although his performance on Saturday in a 5-2 win over the Boston Bruins gave hope for a return to top form. Seeing that the Bolts are the fifth youngest team in the league, confidence emanating from the crease is essential.

Look what it did for the Montreal Canadiens a season ago. Jose Theodore won the Hart Trophy as the NHL’s MVP largely on his performance from the Olympic break onward. Conversely, Khabibulin’s play since the 2002 Winter Games hasn’t been as sharp as it was prior to that point.

Speaking of the Canadiens, they lead Tampa Bay by a single point right now for the eighth and final playoff spot and the two teams go head to head twice more this season -- March 15 in Tampa and April 2 in Montreal.

The Lightning have two games in hand on the Habs and have 13 of their remaining 24 games at home -- where they have been much more effective this season. Included in their road games, however, is a three-game West Coast swing during the third week in March. Ultimately, an appearance in the playoffs for the first time since 1996 and the second time in Lightning history comes down to the play of Khabibulin, better penalty-killing numbers overall and more points garnered in the standings on the road.

In the Western Conference, the Blackhawks' predicament is exactly the opposite. Goaltender Jocelyn Thibault has been outstanding. It is the offense that has struggled all season. The Blackhawks have the sixth best defensive record in the NHL, with Thibault tied for first with seven shutouts.

Conversely, the guys in front of him have managed just 143 goals in 58 games -- the third worst per-game output in the conference. The power play has failed badly, with the Blackhawks ranked dead last in the entire league. And with power play quarterback Phil Housley sidelined for four weeks, the Blackhawks' hopes for a turnaround with the man advantage appear dimmed.

Injuries have plagued the Blackhawks all season, impacting their offensive consistency and contributing to the woes on the power play. Thibault has carried the team in stretches, but the inability to count on Eric Daze and Theo Fleury due to a variety of maladies and misdemeanors has put an inordinate amount of pressure on defense. Possibly favoring the Blackhawks is the fact that the team they are chasing, the Edmonton Oilers, might be the most nicked up of all the playoff hopefuls. The Oilers' supporting cast has filled in ably, keeping them three points up with a game in hand.

If anything favors the Blackhawks eking into the eighth spot, it is the balance of their schedule. To this point, they have played more road games than any team in the league, making for a home-heavy stretch run. While the Hawks haven’t been as dominant on home ice as they were last season, they have been solid. The trick will be finding enough offense to parlay those 14 remaining home games into being the difference maker. If not, eighth is out of the question. And ninth is not where any team wants to end up.

Darren Eliot, a former NHL goaltender, is a hockey analyst for SI.com.

 

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