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Beware the All Blacks New Zealand emerges as hot favorite for Tri-Nations
Posted: Wednesday July 05, 2000 11:39 PM
Just a few months after Australia's remarkable triumph in the Rugby World Cup, the balance of power is shifting in the Southern Hemisphere. With many of the Wallabies at the end of their international careers, New Zealand is emerging as the hot favorite in this year's Tri-Nations. The clinical manner in which they disposed of Scotland in the two-test series shows that the All Blacks have learned the lessons of last year's failed World Cup campaign. New coach Wayne Smith has New Zealand playing some wonderful 15-man rugby and, most importantly, has his team "on-the-boil" for the entire 80 minutes. New Zealand should comfortably retain their Tri-Nations crown and could conceivably go through this season's tournament undefeated. Australia, the only nation to win the World Cup twice (1991 and 1999), is about to start a re-building phase. Veterans like Tim Horan , David Wilson and probably Jason Little are preparing to end their careers with clubs in Europe, while former Wallaby prop Patricio Noriega has already departed for lucrative rewards elsewhere. The way the Australians struggled as they narrowly won the second test at home over Argentina indicates that their scrum is rather weak. South Africa will always be difficult to beat on home soil, especially at altitude, but is suffering "growing pains" as it tries to leave behind the out-dated "brute-force approach" for a more expansive and adventurous style. The Springboks had the embarrassment of splitting the recent two-test home series with kick-happy England. The English won the second international, thanks to the boot of flyhalf Jonny Wilkinson , to give a European team a rare victory over a Southern Hemisphere opponent. The sad irony for New Zealand is that for all its success in the Tri-Nations and Super 12, it has only lifted the World Cup once (in 1987) despite being favorites for the 1991, 1995 and 1999 World Cups. The team of the decade came away with nothing when it really mattered. But for the 2000 season, the All Blacks are simply too strong and focused, while Australia and South Africa have the problems of reshaping their teams and their tactics. I expect Australia to finish second in the Tri-Nations, although its lack of reliable goalkicking (with Matthew Burke struggling with injury) does make it vulnerable in tight matches. As for the medium to long-term, it does appear that the three Southern Hemisphere nations will continue to dominate. At the recent under-21 world championship, New Zealand defeated South Africa in the final, with Australia taking third. At the start of the new millenium, New Zealand has the depth at both junior and senior levels for the makings of a new golden era. Australian-born Jason Dasey is an anchor for World Sport, a global sports news and highlights program shown on CNN International and CNNSI.
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