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Winds of change

Disappointing season means plenty of talk in Minnesota

Posted: Friday December 07, 2001 7:19 PM
Updated: Friday December 07, 2001 7:58 PM
 

A few observations and rumblings throughout the NFL as the season's final month unfolds:

When all the smoke clears from a season that has gone down in flames, don't be surprised if the Vikings have two new coordinators next season. Head coach Dennis Green, who has had gone through a few coordinators of late, is expected to sack both Emmitt Thomas (defense) and Sherman Lewis (offense).

Offensive line/assistant head coach Mike Tice and defensive backs/assistant head coach Willie Shaw are the expected replacements. Green and Lewis have a friendship that goes back a long way and the move will be a difficult one for Green to make. But he has proven that he can put such things aside if he feels the decision is necessary. Green has either fired or not fought to keep eight assistants in the past two offseasons, and some of those men had been very loyal to him.

Of course, it being Minnesota, there's always more going on than just the makeup of next year's assistant staff. Some within the organization believe Green himself is open to the idea of jumping to another job if the right opportunity presents itself. Carolina, where he would likely be granted total control, and Oakland, where he and Al Davis have been playing footsies for years, are the two most logical destinations. Green owns a home in San Diego, but the pairing of him and strong-handed general manager John Butler doesn't seem like it would work.

After 10 often-stressful seasons in Minnesota, Green may have tired somewhat of the constant battles in the upper Midwest. Green also may be trying to beat Vikings owner Red McCombs to the punch. While McCombs has been publicly supportive, behind the scenes he has been displeased with Green's inability to discipline his 4-7 team, rein in Randy Moss, and achieve some level of consistency this season.

It's possible that McCombs could throw some ultimatum before Green, a la Wade Phillips and Bills owner Ralph Wilson. Say, the firing of Green's longtime crony and running partner, Richard Solomon, the Vikings' inside linebackers coach and director of pro personnel.

If Green refused to act, which he has steadfastly done when players and fellow assistants have complained about Solomon, McCombs might have an issue with which to pick a fight.

McCombs also could be thinking about selling the team in the near future if he strikes out one more time in his push for a new stadium. That, too, could influence any potential Green decision on whether to jump or stay put.

On yet another Viking front, don't assume that the team craves one more season from receiver Cris Carter. Team sources say the prevailing sentiment is the hope that Carter honors his previously announced plans to retire after this season. Even Green and Carter are said to have suffered a strain in their close relationship in this tumultuous season.

"They're not buddy buddy anymore," said a team source. "They may not even be talking much. The whole year and the way things have been have kind of caused it."

Getting defensive in Denver

Some in Denver believe head coach Mike Shanahan will make a few changes to his coaching staff after the team's season of underachievement comes to a close. While Shanahan is happy with new defensive coordinator Ray Rhodes, his defensive staff may be in jeopardy. The feeling is that Rhodes may not have had much of a chance to succeed this year, given that he inherited former defensive coordinator Greg Robinson's position coaches.

Shanahan may rectify that, allowing Rhodes to bring in his own guys. That would mean pink slips for defensive line coach George Dyer, pass rush specialist John Teerlinck, linebackers coach Larry Coyer and defensive backs coach Ron Milus.

On offense, the only vulnerable assistant appears to be offensive line coach Rick Dennison, who took over for the celebrated Alex Gibbs this year.

The Broncos' vaunted running game hasn't been a force this year (it's ranked 13th overall, with 116.4 yards per game), and the semi-retired Gibbs has been appearing on Denver's sideline a little more than anticipated.

Gruden's not into the meet-and-greet scene

Jon Gruden's biggest reason for turning down Notre Dame was indeed that he's not about to walk out on his Raiders any time before the end of the season. And having said no to both Ohio State and the Irish -- two of his dream jobs -- in less than a year, he's likely to stay put in Oakland in 2002 and finish out his contract before selling himself to the highest bidder.

But another part of the Notre Dame package didn't quite fit, some insiders say. The Irish are reportedly prepared to pay their next head coach in the range of $1 million per season. That wouldn't be a raise for Gruden, whose set to earn $1.2 million next season in Oakland and figures to command more than $3 million per year on the open market.

But at Notre Dame, there's a lot of peripheral money to be made. Lou Holtz had the use of the university's private jet anytime he wanted to fly to Las Vegas and make $50,000 a pop for a speaking engagement. But Gruden is no Holtz. He wants to make his money in football, not on the rubber chicken circuit. Gruden eats, sleeps and drinks the game, wants to be near it at all times, and isn't about to drag himself all over the map to speaking engagements. That's why the NFL remains Gruden's best bet.

Bucs find breaking up is hard to do

With Tampa Bay's running game still going nowhere -- its 3.2-yard average rush ranks 30th in the NFL -- the Bucs appear ready to relearn a lesson from last year: The running back tandem of Warrick Dunn (2.8 yards per carry) and Mike Alstott (3.8) doesn't work too well when both of them are on the field at the same time. That's why Tampa Bay is considering increased playing time for rookie fullback Jameel Cook, as a true blocking back for either Alstott or Dunn.

Both Bucs head coach Tony Dungy and offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen acknowledged this week that it's an idea whose time might have come.

Recent history seems to prove the wisdom of splitting up Alstott and Dunn. When Dunn went down with a hamstring injury earlier this year, Alstott and the Bucs' other backs combined for 161 yards against Minnesota. When Alstott was out late last year with a knee injury, Dunn averaged 130 yards rushing during a four-game span. Either-or has worked pretty well.

"That is true. We've had some success in those situations," Christensen told the St. Petersburg Times. "But the fact is that both of those guys are healthy right now. So what you're saying is that we should put one of our better players on the bench and bring in a rookie instead.

"Do you want to turn Warrick into a third-down back? Do you want to make him extremely unhappy and keep him on the bench for two-thirds of your snaps? Or do you want to give Mike 10-15 snaps a game, because that's what Jameel has been getting lately?"

The correct answer, of course, is that the Bucs must do whatever it takes to boost a running game averaging just 79.8 yards per game (29th overall). If that means hurting the feelings of their two Pro Bowl running backs, so be it. At 6-5, the Bucs still have time to save their season, but not without some semblance of a running threat.

The coaching carousel is about to begin

Here's one man's reading of the hot-seat chart among NFL head coaches: Carolina's George Seifert, Indianapolis' Jim Mora and San Diego's Mike Riley are the closest thing to dead men walking. Riley, with a late rally by his 5-7 Chargers, might be able to save his job, but it's not likely.

Tom Coughlin's fate in Jacksonville is apparently tied up in the Notre Dame opening. If the Irish would come to him -- and Coughlin can't afford to look like he's chasing the job, in case he doesn't get it and has to swear he never wanted to leave to begin with -- he'll definitely listen. Coughlin still has the support of Jaguars owner Wayne Weaver, just not his players, who have basically tuned out his autocratic pronouncements.

With both Gruden and Steve Mariucci out of the Notre Dame running -- at least for now -- Coughlin's chances of becoming a Golden Domer are much improved. But Stanford's Tyrone Willingham could still be a factor. As for Dungy, his players will decide his fate in the coming five weeks. If they turn it on and make the playoffs, Dungy is most likely safe. If they stay inconsistent and finish 8-8 or so, the Bill Parcells talk will intensify.

The big question is whether or not Bryan, Joel and Ed Glazer, the sons of Bucs owner Malcolm Glazer, are secretly in touch and giving tacit backing to the Parcells camp. And if Parcells is the pick, what does that mean for Bucs general manager Rich McKay, whom the Glazers remain high on?

It's hard to imagine there'd be room in a Parcells front office for McKay, meaning the Glazers basically would have to choose between keeping McKay and Dungy, or hiring Parcells.

Lewis would have tried double duty

Had Ravens defensive coordinator Marvin Lewis landed the Cal head coaching job this week -- and it was his for the taking -- he had already worked out an agreement with head coach Brian Billick on how he would handle the rest of the NFL season before reporting to work full-time in Berkeley.

Lewis, who met with Cal officials Monday night in Baltimore and was scheduled to formally interview Wednesday and Thursday, was going to immediately hire three or four assistant coaches. They would oversee the school's recruiting efforts, while Lewis stayed with the Ravens and kept tabs on the Bears from afar. How smoothly would it have worked? Who knows?

But the incongruities between the college recruting season and the NFL's schedule is one big reason Lewis is still a Raven. Now it will be interesting to see if Lewis again has to wait deep into January -- or possibly even into February -- before being allowed to interview for any NFL head coaching vacancies.

And another thing ...

  • Raise your hand if you foresaw Moe Williams (111 yards on 24 carries) out-rushing Ricky Williams (102 yards on 27 carries) last week? It was the first 100-yard rushing game in the six-year career of the Ravens reserve. Raise your other hand if you had Antowain Smith (749 yards), Lamar Smith (644) and Maurice Smith (629) all out-rushing Emmitt Smith (589) this season? Yeah, me too.

  • Are you as tired as I am of seeing happy, prancing Gramaticas? OK, the twin-overtime, game-winning field goals turned in by Martin of Tampa Bay and Bill of Arizona last week made for a good story. But how about acting like you've been there before when you make a big kick, guys? Because you have.

    And another thing, in football togs, both Gramaticas look exactly like I did when I was 11 and got that official Miami Dolphins uniform -- complete with foam rubber padding in the helmet -- for Christmas. You know the one.

  • It's just my opinion, but I think Shanahan is nuts if he doesn't go with Mike Anderson next year as his starting running back. And yes, that means I don't believe Terrell Davis will stay healthy for longer than 20 minutes.

  • Based on their past two victories against New Orleans and the Jets, it would be shocking if the Patriots don't finish at least 10-6 this season and play host to a wild-card playoff game. Of course, we've already been shocked a few times this season. New England is the only team in the league that started 0-2 and has a .500-or-better record.

  • Here's the most eye-opening thing I learned from watching HBO's superb new documentary The Game of Their Lives, about life in the NFL in the 1950s: Under the rules in those days, players could be tackled or knocked off their feet by contact, but they could get up and keep running if they weren't pinned down or the whistle had blown? Huh? I know every game has had its major rule changes -- baseball's strike zone still fluctuates -- but how many yards did the likes of Hugh McElhenny and Joe "The Jet" Perry add to their career totals thanks to that short-lived gimmick?

    A nuance like that makes the job of comparing eras and statistics truly an apples-to-oranges exercise.

  • Yeah, gaudy receiving numbers are a dime a dozen these days. But there should be an investigation if Arizona's David Boston (72 catches, an NFL-best 1,171 yards and six touchdowns) doesn't become a first-time Pro Bowl selection. And I think I feel the same way about New England's Troy Brown (78 for 944 yards, five touchdowns).

  • For those of you who might have missed it earlier, Miami has won a hard-fought first-round playoff game in each of the past three years, before being trounced in the divisional round. The Dolphins' average margin of victory in their wild-card round games has been 5.3 points. Their average margin of defeat in the divisional round has been 39 points. Here's betting it happens again.

  • Four NFC teams had their starting quarterback knocked out of a game last week: Detroit's Charlie Batch (shoulder), Minnesota's Daunte Culpepper (knee), Carolina's Chris Weinke (concussion), and Atlanta's Chris Chandler (ankle). Unsurprisingly, all four teams lost.

    In the AFC, Tennessee's Steve McNair left the game after getting his arm stepped on by Cleveland's Jamir Miller. But McNair returned and toughed it out, and the Titans won in a walk.

  • And speaking of Lamar Smith, what's up with him? He hasn't done anything since that 209-yard rushing performance against Indianapaolis in Miami's 23-17 wild-card win in overtime last December. Is there a Dolphins media guide cover jinx? Smith's game-winning, 17-yard touchdown run against the Colts is splashed on the cover of this year's guide.

    Smith has failed to average 3 yards per attempt in his past seven games, has an average carry of just 2.8 yards this season (644 on 227 attempts) and his longest rush has been 18 yards. He's on pace for a ho-hum 937-yard rushing season on a whopping 330 carries. Which means, any day now, we're in for another spate of stories on "How come the Dolphins can't run the ball?"

  • Citing the disappearance of the home field advantage has been all the rage in recent weeks. With good reason. While road teams are still under .500 for the season at 85-88 (.491), the past three weeks have all been winning ones for the road teams. In Weeks 10-12, visitors went 10-5, 12-3 and 8-7, for a combined record of 30-15 (.667).

    An eye-popping seven teams have just one or fewer road loss: The Rams are 6-0; the Eagles and Jets are 5-0; the Steelers are 5-1; and the 49ers, Bears and Falcons are all 4-1.

    The top five

    1. St. Louis -- Back on top after a week's demotion. Sorry we ever doubted.
    2. Pittsburgh -- They're not putting anybody away. But they keep winning.
    3. Chicago -- Something tells me they're not in this spot for long.
    4. San Francisco -- Something tells me they're not in this spot for long.
    5. Green Bay -- Raiders tumble, Packers rise. It's volatile out there.

    The bottom five

    27. Cincinnati -- The Bengals are back where they belong. Near bottom.
    28. Jacksonville -- A Coughlin-led team isn't supposed to beat itself.
    29. Buffalo -- Bet that was a long flight home from San Francisco.
    30. Detroit -- Lions have to go for it now. History is within reach.
    31. Carolina -- The poor Panthers. Now even their Weinke is hurting.

    Don Banks covers the NFL for CNNSI.com


     

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