Guessing game

Who will end up where and why

The music won't stop for at least another week or so, but before all the chairs are taken, here's an educated guess on how the remaining four NFL head coaching jobs will shake out:

Tony Dungy in Indianapolis, John Fox in Carolina, Marty Schottenheimer in San Diego and of course, Bill Parcells in Tampa Bay.

Of those, Parcells is as close to a lock as can be, and Dungy to the Colts is a very solid bet. Parcells is expected to be announced in Tampa Bay early next week, and Dungy will interview with Carolina (probably Saturday) and Indianapolis (probably Monday or Tuesday).

As for Fox and Schottenheimer, they seem to have seized the momentum in their respective situations and have things rapidly lining up behind them.

Fox's great interview and his modest price tag may carry the day in Carolina. The Panthers correctly believe they are Dungy's No. 2 choice, and they think Fox is an up-and-coming candidate whose worth making a long-term investment in. And in San Diego, it's sounding more and more like Chargers general manager John Butler prizes Schottenheimer's track record and experience above all else.

Butler interviewed Schottenheimer on Thursday. The plan is for Butler to speak to Jets defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell about the job on Sunday or Monday, at the Senior Bowl workouts.

Though the Chargers still could offer their head coaching job to offensive coordinator Norv Turner, the smart money says San Diego's dream team would be convincing Schottenheimer to keep Turner as his OC. A source with knowledge of Schottenheimer's thinking doesn't expect that to be a deal-breaker.

Schottenheimer would likely retain Jimmy Raye, his former Redskins offensive coordinator, but assign him a different position. Raye owns a home in San Diego and would be motivated to join the Chargers in almost any capacity. That way, the Chargers and Schottenheimer would feel they have the best of both worlds.

As for Turner, he'd be disappointed if he didn't get the Chargers job, but he's pragmatic enough to still consider staying on as San Diego's coordinator. He and his family like the area, and his rumored opportunity to be Miami's offensive coordinator under Dave Wannstedt might hinge on whether or not the Dolphins are going to keep quarterback Jay Fiedler or pursue Troy Aikman. If it's Fiedler, Mike Shula probably gets the coordinator position. If it's Aikman, Turner is definitely in the mix in Miami.

Finally, Butler isn't the least bit scared off by Schottenheimer's resistance to working with a general manager in Washington. Schottenheimer has made it known that that stipulation doesn't apply in San Diego, where Butler has experience and a track record. Schottenheimer wanted total authority in Washington due to owner Daniel Snyder's penchant for meddling in personnel decisions and impulsive behavior. In the end, he was dead right to insist upon it.

Dungy went out a winner

Dungy knew what kind of business he was in when he signed on in Tampa Bay in January 1996. He himself had to fire a couple of offensive coordinators and replace a couple starting quarterbacks in the past two years. He had to tell those men that their services were no longer required and his loyalty to them extended only so far.

That's part of coaching in today's NFL. It comes with the headsets and the media spotlight.

But the fact that Dungy was fired by the Bucs is not the only reason that so many people were feeling so badly for him this week. It's that there's a right way and a wrong way to end a coach's tenure, and Tampa Bay owner Malcolm Glazer and sons did everything wrong. Spectacularly wrong.

From letting their lust for Bill Parcells leak out during Super Bowl week last year, which embarrassed Dungy given that the game was held in Tampa, to keeping up a stony silence all season as Dungy's job became a league-wide curiosity piece.

From crueling letting their coach's fate drag out through Sunday and most of Monday, even while a decision already had been made, to going before the TV cameras Tuesday afternoon to brazenly declare that there had been no contact or premeditation on their part with regards to Parcells. As if anyone on this side of Mars was buying the spin.

That Dungy was the best possible man throughout all the ugliness only heightened the respect we've long had for him. While Dennis Green talked about taking the high road out of town, Dungy just quietly took it. Head held high, dignity intact.

Schottenheimer did the same thing in Washington, making Snyder look even smaller than usual.

Some would say that there's a certain justice to how things worked out. The Glazers at this point probably deserve Parcells, who has been known to push the boundries of credibility with his love-'em-and-leave-'em style. As for Snyder and Spurrier, they are an ego-drenched match sure to ignite.

Odds and ends