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Dilfer's numbers deserve more respect Posted: Friday February 22, 2002 4:44 PMUpdated: Monday February 25, 2002 5:56 PM
For my money he is the most intriguing free-agent-to-be in the NFL, and yet everyone seemingly already has their minds made up about Trent Dilfer. That's the problem. There's no greater divide between perception and reality in the NFL than in the case of Dilfer, who likely will be playing for his fourth team in four years in 2002. The Seattle quarterback could be pursued by as many as four or five teams when he hits the free-agent market next week, which begs the question: What could Mike Holmgren be thinking? Yeah, yeah, we know. The Seahawks' quarterback-savvy head coach is banking his well-earned reputation on the belief that starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck's future will be far brighter than Dilfer's present. That's a judgment call, but in our judement, Holmgren walks away from Dilfer at his own risk. Just as Tony Dungy and Brian Billick learned the past two off-seasons. Cincinnati, Chicago and Washington are expected to be serious bidders for Dilfer's services. Houston, Buffalo and Detroit might also be the mix. As for Seattle, Holmgren has said he will consider allowing Dilfer to challenge Hasselbeck for the starting job in training camp, but Dilfer is only looking for a team that will anoint him its expected starter from day one. A second meeting between Holmgren and Dilfer this week did nothing to change that dynamic. That's why even the expansion Texans, who would love Dilfer to groom expected No. 1 pick David Carr of Fresno State for a year, aren't thought to be the right fit for Dilfer. He's confident that his track record can land him a starting job somewhere in the quarterback-starved NFL, and he's not interested in just another short-term situation. Can you blame him? Don't bother perusing the following statistics if you know what you know and you've already decided that Hasselbeck should be the guy in Seattle. The numbers are too overwhelming to even argue with, and you'll only feel foolish. Just stick with your gut and don't let the facts get in the way. But if you promise to keep an open mind, consider the following:
In those 20 starts, Dilfer's teams have led their opponents at halftime by a combined score of 281-113. That's an average lead of eight points in a league where the average winning margin is under 10 points. Dilfer has thrown for 21 touchdown passes in those 20 first halves, proof of his impact when the games were still on the line. Dilfer had Seattle ahead by an average margin of eight points in the first half of all four of his 2001 starts (18-10), compared to Hasselbeck's record of having the Seahawks ahead four times, behind five times and tied three times at halftime. On average, in Hasselbeck's 12 starts, the Seahawks trailed by three points at halftime. Finally, Dilfer shattered another myth by proving he can win games when he's asked to keep throwing the ball in the second half. During his 19-1 streak, Dilfer is 5-0, with a 60.2 completion percentage, a 87.5 quarterback rating and a 9-5 touchdown-interception ratio when he attempts more than 25 passes in a game. All three indicators are higher than his overall numbers in those categories for the past 20 starts (58 percent, 85.5 rating, and 26-16 touchdown to interception ratio). Dilfer obviously won't be the biggest name among the quarterbacks expected to become available this offseason. That distinction would belong to New England's Drew Bledsoe, whose anticipated trade should garner the Patriots at least a first-round pick. But we wouldn't advise New England to put Dilfer and Bledsoe's recent statistics side by side. In their past 20 starts, Dilfer has bettered Bledsoe in touchdowns (26 to 20), quarterback rating (85.8 to 76.1), yards per completion (12.93 to 10.34), yards per attempt (7.50 to 6.07), percentage of touchdown passes (5.46 to 3.11), average length of touchdown pass (31.3 yards to 14.2), number of TD passes of 20 yards or more (15 to 3), number of TD passes of 40 yards or more (10 to 2), and won-loss record (19-1 to 6-14). They both have tossed 16 interceptions in that span. Bledsoe has thrown for more yards (3,900 to 3,568) with a slightly higher completion percentage (58.6 to 58.0), but his 101 more completions produced only 332 yards more than Dilfer, for an average gain of 3.3 yards. In other words, Bledsoe's reputation as a big-play gunner, and Dilfer's as a dink-and-dunker are just plain not supported by the numbers. Need any more evidence of Dilfer's recent production? Here are two more statistical nuggets:
Lastly, Dilfer's impact on his team's success somehow can't be measured by numbers alone. He has brought certain intangibles to the table the past three years, and you can make a rather strong case that both Tampa Bay and Baltimore were worse rather than better off without him. After helping the Bucs start down the road to the NFC title game with four consecutive victories in the second half of 1999, Dilfer was released in the offseason in favor of naming Shaun King the starter. The Bucs are currently working on a streak of three consecutive touchdown-less playoff losses without Dilfer in the lineup, and they've gone through three offensive coordinators, two starting quarterbacks and one head coach since he left town. As for the Ravens, they went 11-1 and won a Super Bowl with Dilfer at quarterback in 2000. Baltimore replaced him with Elvis Grbac, who went 9-7 as a starter in his erratic first season on the job, frustrating the team's stellar defense with a flurry of turnovers. In Dilfer's four playoff games in Baltimore, he threw just one interception. In Grbac's two playoff starts for the Ravens this season, he tossed three interceptions, all without producing an offensive touchdown in the divisional-round loss at Pittsburgh. Time has shown that Dilfer wasn't the real problem in either Tampa Bay or Baltimore. Now it's Seattle's turn to make the same decision. It's your call, Mike. Just don't say we didn't warn you.
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