Early offseason winners and losers

A month into free agency, with the NFL Draft looming dead ahead, it's still too early to definitively grade teams on their offseason performances. After all, the opening of training camp remains more than three and a half months away, and the first preseason games aren't for another four months.

But it's never too early to start debating which teams are laying the groundwork for either success or failure in 2002. Who's had the best offseason? Who's had the worst? Who has free agency been kind to? And who has had it rough?

Most of the NFL's 32 teams are in the vast middle grouping, with nearly as many gains as losses. But here are our nominations for the five most promising offseasons thus far, and the five most problematic.

Think of it not so much as a spring power rating as an indication of who seems to be headed in the right direction, and who seems to have lost the most ground:

The top five offseasons thus far…

1. New England: It's a league rule now, right? Everybody who mentions creative or shrewd front-office moves has to start off by tossing a few bouquets toward New England? And why should we buck that trend?

But the Patriots' blueprint is working these days. They keep the players worth keeping, don't overpay, let the expendable bodies go and replace them with upgrades. Nothing to it. Receiver Terry Glenn may have more talent than his replacement Donald Hayes, but it's hard to argue that New England didn't come out ahead on that swap of sorts. Hayes has a chance to be an impact player for the Patriots. Glenn's impact was all of the negative kind.

New England also made wise moves in re-signing Antowain Smith, Ted Johnson and Willie McGinest. Tight ends Christian Fauria and Cam Cleeland are low-budget free-agent pickups in the Patriot mode, and adding ex-Jets, like Chris Hayes and Rick Lyle, has worked out nicely in the past for Bill Belichick's boys. Even better, New England still has about $5 million of cap room stashed away for a dip into the June market.

Linebacker Bryan Cox's leadership will be missed, but having him around taught others how to approach the game. That mitigates the loss. Now if the Patriots could just get somebody interested in trading for this Drew Bledsoe character, the view from atop the mountain would be spectacular indeed.

2. Miami: Nothing real tricky about this pick. The Dolphins landed a 1,000-yard lead running back with plenty of upside left and didn't have to give up too much to get him. Does Ricky Williams make Miami an instant AFC Super Bowl favorite? I don't think so. But he's a nice piece of the puzzle that the Dolphins have struggled to get in place for longer than we can remember.

What else? Miami overpaid to retain quarterback Jay Fiedler, but the Fish believe he's a winner and the other options weren't all that appealing. Defensive tackle Larry Chester and guard Leon Searcy were low-profile acquisitions that could pay off, especially if Searcy finally is healthy and handles a shift to the interior line.

Defensive end Kenny Mixon is gone and his backup, Lorenzo Bromell, could be leaving soon. But the Dolphins re-signed Tim Bowens and also retained safeties Brock Marion and Shawn Wooden, who will replace the departed Brian Walker at strong safety.

Other than Williams' arrival and the hiring of offensive coordinator Norv Turner, there's not much to write home about. But the Dolphins have gone 11-5 without a Ricky Williams the past two seasons, and didn't need much to begin with.

3. Dallas: It's hard not to like what the Cowboys are building on defense. Dallas' D ranked No. 4 overall in the league last year, and was rock-solid in the season's second half. And now the Cowboys have upgraded one position in a big way, landing defensive tackle La'Roi Glover, who is just a year removed from an NFL-leading 17 sacks.

Pass rush was the defense's most glaring need, and Glover's surprising addition should benefit every one on the line, given his penchant for drawing double-team blocks. What Glover might give up in the way of run defense, where the Saints felt he was deficient, should be compensated for in speed rush, a component Dallas has lacked for too long.

The Cowboys also overpaid to retain safety Darren Woodson, but he's still one of their premier defenders. The jury remains out on whether cornerback Bryant Westbook can come back from injuries, but he was cheap and Dallas believes he'll benefit from being back in Texas, where he played collegiately. Maybe the Cowboys even think it'll help them land another Longhorn cornerback, Quentin Jammer, who looks like their choice if he's available at No. 6.

One could have a huge impact on defense, the other on offense.

Glenn, of course, carries the higher risk in many ways. But he came relatively cheap, especially in terms of first-year dollars, and the troubled ex-Patriot has a real good chance to turn his career around playing with Brett Favre in the structured environment of Green Bay. The Packers needed stretch-the-field receivers, given that both Bill Schroeder and Corey Bradford were lost in free agency.

Likewise, Johnson might invigorate the Packers' defensive line, which was a prime candidate for improvement. With Johnson's steady pass pressure combining with the sack talents of Vonnie Holliday, Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila and Jamal Reynolds, Green Bay should better its 2001 total of 52 sacks, which ranked third overall in the league.

5. San Francisco: What I like best about the 49ers' offseason is that they kept almost everybody who was important from their surprise 12-4 team of a year ago. Running back Garrison Hearst? Re-signed. Center Jeremy Newberry? Re-signed. Fullback Fred Beasley and free safety Zack Bronson? Re-signed.

Heck, San Francisco even kept head coach Steve Mariucci after it appeared OK with the notion of letting him go (to Tampa Bay).

True, safety Lance Shulters and Pro Bowl guard Ray Brown will not be back. Shulters is a free agent (and the 49ers signed ex-Bear Tony Parrish on Tuesday), and Brown is expected to be a June salary-cap casualty. But in today's NFL, keeping your own quality free agents is job one, and on that front the 49ers have fared extremely well.

San Francisco's losses have been of the minimal variety: tight end Greg Clark, quarterback Rick Mirer and special teams/linebacker Terry Killens. When you add it all up, that's a bottom line that's well into plus territory.

The bottom five offseasons thus far…

1. Baltimore: When there are 17 names dotting the departure list, and zero on the arrival list, where does one begin to assess the damage? The Ravens can spin it all they like that they knew serious cap trouble was on the way in 2002. But there's nobody in the organization who in their heart of hearts believed they would have to sacrifice one-third of the roster this offseason, a scant 13 months after winning the Super Bowl.

And here's another fallacy to shoot down amid Baltimore's blood-letting. Upon releasing a ton of players in late February, the Ravens maintained that at least 50 percent of those players could be re-signed in June or later, when the cap crunch eased. That ain't happening. Not with players like Qadry Ismail, Patrick Johnson, Duane Starks and Lional Dalton already gone, and Shannon Sharpe as good as gone.

When Elvis Grbac refused the team's pay cut, it cost the Ravens two starters, himself and Starks, who would have re-signed given any real financial option. Let's face facts: Baltimore is starting over in spots and needs a solid draft and good June just to assure itself of respectability.

2. Jacksonville: The Jaguars are the Ravens, only without the Super Bowl trophy and with the agony of cost-cutting spread out of over two years instead of one. We can only imagine what the guts of head coach Tom Coughlin must have been like when he was forced to bid farewell to players like Tony Boselli, Kevin Hardy, Renaldo Wynn, Gary Walker and Seth Payne, getting nothing in return. Unless you consider a cap credit its own, deeply fulfilling reward.

Try selling season tickets to a discouraged fan base, when the only new faces to promote belong to receiver Patrick Johnson, defensive end Stalin Colinet and tight end Pete Mitchell, who is at least an old-new face. And the rebuilding of fan support is made even more difficult by the presence of another old face, the one belonging to the dour Coughlin. He has survived two consecutive losing seasons, and thus wasn't one of the departees, much to the chagrin of ticket buyers.

This is shaping up to be the year things finally hit bottom in Jacksonville. But the Jaguars are at least out of cap jail, and won't have anywhere to go but up in 2003.

3. New Orleans: There's a fine line between guts and stupidity in the NFL, and the Saints seem to be dancing all around it with the agility of a Bourbon Street reveler at 3 a.m. Having lost Willie Roaf, Johnson, Williams and Glover this offseason, New Orleans has shown a willingness to make the daring move. Collectively, that's a lot of talent to let walk. Individually, the Saints say those folks were all either overrated, overpriced or had overstayed their welcome.

We'd like to give head coach Jim Haslett and general manager Randy Mueller the benefit of the doubt on this one, but we still can't get over last year's signing of Albert Connell, who stole money from New Orleans in a number of ways.

The Saints at least have been trying to rack up some modest personnel wins in recent days, adding Bryan Cox, tight end David Sloan and tackle Spencer Folau to supplement the signing of cornerback Dale Carter. Cox will help put some backbone in the defense.

Owning three of the top 44 picks in the draft may help improve the outlook in New Orleans quite a bit. But the guess here is that things are going to get worse before they get better. This year, Saints fans may pine for a 7-5 start to blow in the season's final month.

4. Tampa Bay: First off, a disclaimer. The Bucs' roster is very much a work in progress, and we know that. General manager Rich McKay has said that this team may not be set until mid-July, and we can see where he's coming from. By the end of the offseason, Tampa Bay may well have patched up all the holes and added another coat of finish to the product.

But from this vantage point, I'm willing to bet that some of the Bucs' enthusiasm over snagging head coach Jon Gruden is tempered by the high draft picks they gave up in the trade. Gruden's offense could really use a couple more playmakers about now.

We like the Michael Pittman signing and believe he'll be an upgrade over Warrick Dunn in Gruden's West Coast offense. But in other areas, the cap forced the Bucs into some dubious personnel decisions. Is Brian Kelly better than Donnie Abraham? Is Marco Battaglia an upgrade over Dave Moore? Would you trade Keith Poole for Jacquez Green and Reidel Anthony? Is Mike Alstott in or out? See what we mean about questions left unanswered?

All of that said, the Bucs still should have enough to win the weak NFC South. But from this distance, Tampa Bay still has the look of a first-round playoff loser. Say, at Philadelphia?

5. New York Giants: If we're talking just pure bad karma surrounding a team as another season looms on the horizon, it's tough to beat the Giants' first few months of 2002. The Michael Strahan contract situation effectively hamstrung the Giants' cap situation, rendering them almost non-existent in free agency. And for good measure, an offense-versus-defense fissure surfaced regarding Strahan's intransigence, with Tiki Barber knocking his teammate's greediness and Strahan's linemates coming to his defense.

Well at least the Gotham press has a subplot for mini-camp. Throw in the contract extension that quarterback Kerry Collins is chasing, without success, and head coach Jim Fassel is going to earn his big money this year.

In and of themselves, the personnel losses haven't been that bad, even though linebacker Jessie Armstead knocked the team after he resurfaced with division rival Washington, and safety Sam Garnes relocated to the cross-town Jets. Guard Ron Stone appears a decent bet to leave as well.

As far as additions, New York deserves credit for being very disciplined given its cap crunch. But a case could be made that the Giants overpaid to retain starting safety Shaun Williams, who was not being clamored for in the open market.

Don Banks covers pro football for CNNSI.com.

 

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