A hunch, but here's how the draft will reach double digits
Posted: Wednesday April 10, 2002 5:33 PM
Here are my own little golden rules when April dawns and it comes time to play the role of NFL draft prognosticator:
Never, ever, ever pretend to know more than you really do.
Don't over-use the phrase "sleeper pick." It's annoying.
And remember to keep a little perspective. Three billion Chinese don't even care about NFL Europe, let alone the draft.
That said, we're 10 days away and I'm starting to feel it. Other than my tax accountant, I can't think of anybody who gets my attention for a short, intense period of time every year more than Mel Kiper Jr. (A quick aside: Isn't it just understood by now that everybody's favorite draft guru has become a human punchline. That no matter what you write, dropping Kiper's name into a sentence just makes it funnier? Kind of the same way Seinfeld effectively used the word "mutton.")
So, without further ado, here's our opening stab at the top 10 picks, kicking off the countdown to the final 10 days before the draft. Mr. Commissioner, the envelope, please:
When was the last time there was any honest-to-goodness drama left by the time Paul Tagliabue or Pete Rozelle approached the microphone? Jim Plunkett over Archie Manning and Dan Pastorini in '71? Bubba Smith over Clint Jones in '67? We're just asking.
Sometimes you can just out-think yourself in this game. We know this much: Peppers looks good in light blue and would help energize a fan base that in the words of owner Jerry Richardson had the "energy" sucked out of it last year. Cornerback Quentin Jammer or quarterback Joey Harrington are the choice of the conspiracy theorists.
Here's where things get interesting. The options are all intriguing. Me? I'd take Harrington and force Mike McMahon to make like Ed McMahon, playing the role of loyal No. 2. The Lions haven't had a big-time player in the game's most vital position since Bobby Layne hung up his facemask-less helmet. But a trade down is a possibility, to either No. 8 or No. 10, with Oklahoma safety Roy Williams being Matt Millen's target in that case.
The condition of Williams' knee might be the issue that pushes the Bills toward Bryant McKinnie, but the hunch here is that the Bills have checked it out and are good to go. Buffalo did sign tackle Trey Teague, however, and could cross us up and pick a defensive lineman like Ryan Sims or Albert Haynesworth. But the quarterback-starved Bills should be hot for Harrington or ready to swing that deal for Drew Bledsoe. One that won't involve this No. 4 pick, too.
Everybody seems to think the Chargers will go for one of the draft's two premier tackles. While Williams' upside might be bigger, McKinnie is the safer of the two in that he has no health questions. But here's our question: With McKinnie standing 6-foot-8, 335 pounds, can either Doug Flutie or Drew Brees be expected to throw -- or even see -- over him? San Diego also loves Jammer. A longshot scenario is a trade up two spots to No. 3 to get him.
If a certain Texas cornerback is still hanging around, it's Jammer time in the Metroplex. But alas he's not on my board. And that means Williams is the next best thing for the Cowboys, whose emerging defensive strength is going to be one of the stories of the season in 2002. You can't completely rule out Boston College running back William Green, but Jerry Jones says they want an immediate starter in the first round, and last we checked, Emmitt Smith hadn't retired.
In the team's first post-Dennis Green draft, the ghost of Dimitrius Underwood will loom. Meaning that the Vikings will play it safe and not take any chances on character cases like Haynesworth or questionable health issues like Mike Williams. If McKinnie should tumble, he'd be very attractive as well given the need at left tackle.
A lot of folks had the Chiefs down to take a wide receiver, but with Johnnie Morton's signing those plans probably changed. Passing on Harrington means K.C. is committed to quarterback Trent Green for the forseeable future. While the Chiefs really covet Sims, they might in reality wind up choosing between Bryant and Haynesworth. Give Bryant the nod, by a whisker.
Henderson's collegiate linemate, Haynesworth, has a much bigger upside. But I can't believe that tough-guy Tom Coughlin has the stomach to handle his immaturity level, especially after the bust that 2000 first-rounder R. Jay Soward turned into. Henderson teamed with last year's No. 1, defensive tackle Marcus Stroud, gives the Jags a foundation to build on in the middle.
By going with Harrington rather than trying to trade for Bledsoe, the Bengals officially are starting over on the quarterback front. See ya, Akili Smith. Looks like just one more year for you, Jon Kitna. If Cincinnati doesn't tap Harrington -- and you can never tell what the Bengals might do -- where does he land? With No. 18 Washington? How about the Giants at No. 15, with Kerry Collins now assured of not getting that extension?
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