Newman suffered what was described as a stinger -- or nerve injury -- in his shoulder near the end of last season, but came back to play and play well in the Wildcats' bowl game. The NFL had Newman undergo an MRI in February at the Scouting Combine in Indianapolis, and he was asked back to town last week for the league's medical re-check process. Another MRI at the re-check showed the injury hasn't improved in the past two months.

Newman is said to have a left auxiliary nerve injury in his shoulder, which produces weakness in the deltoid muscle at the top of the arm. The condition heightens Newman's risk of dislocating the shoulder should he land hard with his arms out to break a fall.

According to a league source close to the situation, the Bengals' medical team reported this week that Newman's shoulder has gotten slightly worse since the Combine. The team graded Newman's shoulder condition as a "2-plus" at the Combine, with 1 being the best grade and 4 being the worst, but that mark was downgraded to a 3 at last weekend's re-check.

"That's not good," the source said. "That's going the wrong direction. I couldn't see him being the choice at this point. Everything seems to be pointing toward Palmer."

NFL teams were aware of Newman's shoulder even before the Combine. But last week's re-check was more important to Cincinnati than anyone else, given the Bengals are considering him for the draft's No. 1 pick.

"His shoulder has been a concern all the way through," said one personnel man from a team that drafts in the top 10. "I don't know if it's bad enough that he won't go high in the top 10. There's nothing he can really do about it. It can't really be fixed until he hurts the shoulder again. He doesn't need surgery at this point. He may be able to get through playing on it just fine."

That same official said his team gave Newman a "C or a C-plus" grade in terms of his medical status, and that Newman performed a respectable 11 reps of the 225-pound bench press at KSU's Pro Day workout. "He didn't get a clean bill of health coming out of the Combine," the personnel man said. "He's not an A. But it wouldn't keep us from drafting him."

Along with Palmer, Newman is making a pre-draft visit to Cincinnati this weekend, taking in head coach Marvin Lewis' first voluntary minicamp. But it may be a trip that's being taken largely in vain. From all indications, Palmer is in the driver's seat at this point, with Marshall quarterback Byron Leftwich a distant No. 2 option.

We asked some league personnel men what they would do if they held the top pick and had Newman's medical situation to wrestle with.

"I know there's a lot of concern about his shoulder," said one league source. "Would I take him No. 1? I don't know. There's a lot of money involved. Top five? Yes. No. 1? I'm not sure. From organization to organization, different feelings could exist on that question."

But another veteran personnel man was less concerned about Newman's status: "Some people might have concerns with it at the top of the round," he said. "But others aren't going to have a problem with it. It's not going to keep him out of the top five. The re-check just showed that it's still there, but we knew that because it's something that doesn't get better without surgery.

"The next time he hurts it, he'll have to get it sewed up and fixed and then it won't happen anymore. But we have some players in this league who play with that injury. A number of guys."

The fact that the Bengals are continuing to show interest in Newman, meeting with him this weekend, doesn't necessarily prove they don't have concerns about his shoulder. No matter which potential No. 1 pick they decide to open contract talks with next week, as they have stated they will, they need some leverage should the talks not be smooth. Thus, it behooves them to keep open the option of selecting one of the draft's two or three other highest-rated players on the board.

In addition, the Bengals remain open and eager to trade out of the No. 1 spot. But there appears no suitor willing to become their trade partner.

The smart money, if there is such a thing at this time of year in the NFL, continues to say that Cincinnati will take Palmer first overall, rather than make a defensive back the draft's top pick for the first time since 1956. Lewis has been very high on Newman, who is widely regarded as the draft's most impact-ready player, and it was thought he might lean toward selecting the guy who can help the Bengals win now.

Palmer, Newman, Leftwich and Michigan State receiver Charles Rogers remain the four top-rated players on the Bengals' board. But team president/owner Mike Brown favors Palmer, and in the end, Lewis probably doesn't have an argument that would counter the pick.

Others believe that given Lewis' history in Baltimore and Pittsburgh, where first-rounders were never used on quarterbacks, and the Ravens and Steelers won with middle-of-the-road passers, the head coach's inclination will be to spend the No. 1 on someone other than Palmer. Whose mindset will prevail? The guess here is Brown's. The questions regarding Newman's shoulder may have simply sealed the deal.

Like a lot of teams, Houston doesn't see enough of a distinction between Rogers and Miami receiver Andre Johnson to warrant giving up an extra first-day pick and paying No. 1 money. The Texans are said to be content to sit tight at No. 3 and take Johnson, believing he's right there with Rogers.

The loser in that scenario is, of course, the Bengals. They'd love to drop down to No. 3, pick up an extra second- or third-rounder, and still likely get the player they most covet -- probably Palmer or Newman -- in a cheaper draft slot. But Cincinnati seems resigned that it's not going to happen.

Arizona State defensive end Terrell Suggs' poor workout two weeks ago probably hurt him with the Bears, and another possible No. 5 pick, Penn State defensive tackle Jimmy Kennedy, has a familiar downside. Teams worry that Nittany Lions often have not lived up to expectations in the NFL.

That would be Cal's Kyle Boller or Leftwich. Sources say Leftwich's biggest backer is Baltimore general manager Ozzie Newsome, but that more members of the coaching staff and personnel department prefer Boller. A Cowboys-Ravens trade would probably only work if Dallas thinks it can get Washington State's Marcus Trufant at No. 10, and that's no sure thing, because No. 7 Minnesota or No. 9 Carolina might spoil those plans.

The Vikings would love Robertson to linger, but if he doesn't, their need at cornerback might entice them to take Trufant over Kennedy. Minnesota also is trying to trade back to Baltimore's No. 10 spot, hopeful of picking up an extra pick and still getting Trufant. The Panthers are thought to be locked in on Utah offensive tackle Jordan Gross and Trufant.

One caveat: Baltimore's M.O. is to sit tight and take the pick that comes its way. It really wouldn't be in character for Newsome to pursue moving up to take a quarterback, especially since everyone within the organization believes the Ravens will come away with either Boller or Leftwich at No. 10.

Though they also could take a cornerback like Trufant, the Jaguars selecting Leftwich makes some sense. Jacksonville has made several big free-agent moves this offseason and believes it already has its roster in a position to contend for the AFC South crown in 2003. To new general manager James Harris, that might seem perhaps the perfect time to take a quarterback of the future like Leftwich. With Mark Brunell still on hand, Harris and new head coach Jack Del Rio could avoid throwing Leftwich into the fire right away.

Harris, with his history in the same Baltimore system that included Lewis, probably views Leftwich as a safer, more conservative pick than Boller, based on the Marshall star's longer, more accomplished track record. While sources say Harris didn't leave Leftwich's long-awaited personal workout on Monday having seen the quarterback's best work, others confirmed that Harris is high on him and wore a wide smile on his face that day.

The one problem with the Leftwich to Jacksonville scenario? Jaguars offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave and quarterbacks coach Kenny Anderson run a West Coast-style offense. Leftwich is considered by most to be a traditional pocket passer whose game might not be best-suited to the short-passing, get-rid-of-the-ball approach of the West Coast attack.

"He could do it," said one league personnel man. "But he's not a great fit for that offense. He's not a West Coast type. He's a pocket guy who's going to sit back there and let things develop. But Harris likes him, that's clear."

"McGahee's going in the first round," he said. "He's going higher than most people expect. This is not a great draft, and somebody's going to take him in the first. Not the second. Not the third. Teams aren't worried about whether he'll be at the rookie minicamp. They're looking long-term with him."

Who are the best bets to roll the dice on McGahee, who said he intends to play this year, despite only being injured in January's Fiesta Bowl? No. 16 Kansas City, given Priest Holmes' hip situation, New England, with two first-rounders, No. 28 Tennessee, No. 29 Green Bay and Oakland, who owns the first round's final two selections.

Wallace also has drawn some interest as a quarterback from Chicago and Kansas City, and at least one plugged-in observer believes Tampa Bay head coach Jon Gruden will select him early on the draft's second day, with the idea of using Wallace in a variety of roles.

Don Banks covers pro football for SI.com.

 

Related information

Stories

Previous Don Banks Columns SI.com's 2003 Mock Draft -- Version 5.0 Banks: Leftwich not bad, but maybe not top-10 material Don Banks: Draft now about filling needs, plugging holes Don Banks: Lessons may be learned by looking back at '98

Multimedia

Visit Video Plus for the latest audio and video