Running on empty?

Teams lament draft's talent pool for RBs isn't very deep

The best of the bunch will be playing on one leg in 2003, if he plays at all. Another one has all of a half season's worth of starting experience and his track record includes a broken right leg that required three subsequent surgeries. A third didn't emerge as a legitimate draft prospect until his senior year, and he starred for a program notorious for producing NFL underachievers at his position.

And to think those are the top three highest-rated running backs in the upcoming NFL Draft. Is it any wonder that so many personnel men around the league have rushed to bestow a dubious distinction on this year's crop of runners?

"It's the weakest year for running backs in draft history," one veteran league personnel man says flatly. "This year, everybody comes with a question mark."

Or two. That's why so many are finding it difficult to project both the order that the running backs will go off the draft board, and how high. While there have been other lean drafts in terms of running backs -- notably 2002, when just two runners went in the first round -- this year's class is devoid of blue chips or sure things.

Unless you count the certainty that whichever team rolls the dice and selects injured University of Miami standout Willis McGahee, it'll have a better back in 2004 than this season. McGahee, despite tearing three knee ligaments in this year's Fiesta Bowl loss to Ohio State, remains the consensus choice to be the first running back taken.

Could anything better summarize the shallow nature of this year's backfield talent pool than the first-round selection of a player who begins his career with a better shot of going on IR than going on to win the rookie of the year award? Healthy, McGahee would be head and shoulder pads ahead of the running back field. Just three months after major reconstructive knee surgery, it's still not all that close.

'Nuff said when it comes to the Class of '03.

"There are six or seven backs who could fall anywhere from late in the first to late in the second," Buffalo general manager Tom Donahoe said. "The second round could have a lot of backs. And they're good backs, but most of them lack that difference-maker quality. When we looked at it, other than McGahee, there may not be a sure-fire blue-chip high pick in the group.

"Some have durability issues. Others haven't produced for more than one season. They're kind of all clumped together and no one has really separated himself."

In a poll of five league personnel evaluators, most had McGahee and Penn State's 2000-yard rusher, Larry Johnson, graded as first-round talents. Then, in various order of preference, came Southern Cal's Justin Fargas, Oregon's Onterrio Smith, Georgia's Musa Smith, Virginia Tech's Lee Suggs and Colorado's Chris Brown. Those five most often are projected to go from early in the second round on.

"If McGahee doesn't go in the first, and there's only a slim chance that happens, we might not have a running back picked in the first round," said NFL draft expert Gil Brandt, regarding a scenario that hasn't occurred since the AFL and NFL began a joint draft in 1967. "We might have three running backs in the first round, or we might not have any.

"With Fargas, and Johnson, and Musa Smith and Onterrio Smith, they're all really good players. There are a lot of good backs in this draft. But not many great backs with a consensus behind them."

Of course, last year at this time, no one was hyping the bountiful crop of talent at running back either. There was William Green and T.J. Duckett, who went 16th and 18th overall, to Cleveland and Atlanta, respectively, but then came a noticeable drop-off to the second-round grades that were assigned to the likes of Clinton Portis, DeShaun Foster, Maurice Morris and Ladell Betts.

Portis, of course, defied his second-round status, sweeping to AFC offensive rookie of the year acclaim with 1,508 yards rushing, another 364 yards receiving, and a total of 17 touchdowns. Is there another Portis hiding in this year's second-round clump? If there's a GM that thinks so, he ain't talking.

"I don't know if it's really that much different than last year," Bears general manager Jerry Angelo said. "Collectively, I think I'd rather have this group to pick from. They do have their areas of concern, and there's no bell-weather guys. Even McGahee has a problem I'd rather not deal with. I kind of see it as Larry Johnson and then a bunch of guys. In the past more often than not, there were four top guys, and then they started bunching up.

"But at least there are some proto-type backs this year. Some big guys, like Johnson, Brown and Musa Smith. And some quick guys, like Fargas and Onterrio Smith. But there are durability issues with guys like Fargas and Musa Smith, and guys who have had just one big season like Johnson and Fargas."

McGahee clearly is the most intriguing player in the draft. Teams that will be tempted to look past his current predicament and see his potential include New England and Oakland, both of which own two first-rounders and thus are in position to gamble, as well as Kansas City, Tennessee and maybe Green Bay. Most evaluators believe McGahee will be picked anywhere from No. 19, by New England, to No. 31 or 32 by Oakland.

"If you have two picks, you're in a position where you can take him and not expect to get anything out of him this season," Donahoe said. "It's hard for a team with one first-rounder to do that. I don't know too many teams that don't need something out of their first-rounder this year."

McGahee's situation could even further solidify Tuesday, when he is scheduled to show interested teams what he can do after just three-plus months of rehabilitation.

Not everyone, however, is convinced that McGahee remains a wise gamble, even for a team with a surplus first-round selection.

"I don't buy it, but that will be the logic for the team that picks him, that we have an extra pick to gamble on," Angelo said. "For me, there's so much about the draft that's projection anyway. Maybe half the first round is going to be a miss, so why would you want to add another layer of projection to that?

"I think his workout will be a side show. It's not going to show you anything. The injury is what it is. He's not going to get back significantly sooner or later than anybody else with that injury. We really won't know anything until he hits the field again and we see what he can do. But someone will take him pretty high and take the chance."

But taking chances is what this year's running back draft is all about. In no particular order, the pluses and minuses of the top backs after McGahee break down like this: