But it's hard to lay odds on a Cowboys-Patriots trade, because New England is by no means talking to just one or two teams. The Patriots and Bears have been in contact this week, and at one point it looked like New England's offer to ship its two first-rounders (No. 14 and 19) to Chicago for the No. 4 pick might happen. Then the Patriots sought to get a second-rounder in 2004 back from the Bears and talks cooled.

New England wants to get up to take Kentucky defensive tackle Dewayne Robertson. But the Patriots probably have to get to Chicago's No. 4 spot to assure themselves of that pick. At No. 5, their likely target would be Kansas State cornerback Terence Newman.

-- It wants to trade down to get one of the prized defensive tackles who figure to come off the board in the No. 11 through 16 range, plus acquire extra picks to fill more needs. As we said, New England is the most likely trade partner in that case.

-- Jerry Jones wants to sit tight and take Newman, while Parcells is more inclined to take Robertson at No. 5 or move down. Insiders say Parcells always starts his rebuilding projects by focusing on the defensive front seven, and won't spend a high first-round pick on a cornerback.

-- Others say Parcells isn't as sold on Robertson as many have assumed and doesn't buy that he's a younger version of Warren Sapp. Parcells points to Robertson's modest sack total in college to back up his assessment, and sources say Robertson only moved ahead of Penn State defensive tackle Jimmy Kennedy on the Cowboys' board on Wednesday.

-- There are some indications that the Cowboys have been sniffing around Arizona State defensive end Terrell Suggs, and could surprise people by making him the pick at No. 5.

-- The Cowboys and Texans could be talking trade, with Dallas going up to No. 3 to have their choice between Robertson and Newman, given that No. 4 Chicago has the same two players 1-2 on its board. That would mean the Texans could get Miami receiver Andre Johnson cheaper, at No. 5 rather than No. 3, plus an extra pick.

-- And lastly, the wild-hare rumor of the week is Cleveland dealing quarterback Tim Couch to Dallas for a package of draft picks, but not the Cowboys' No. 1. The trade would settle the lingering quarterback questions of two teams with one move.

What gives? No. 2 Detroit may just be trying to shop its most marketable defensive commodity, in the hopes of extracting a first-rounder from some team that drafts just beyond the run of big-time defensive tackles. Or the Lions may be trying to motivate Rogers, who had a disappointing, injury-plagued second season after a stellar rookie year. Rogers is said to have gotten off to a shaky start with new Lions head coach Steve Mariucci, who doesn't think he's disciplined enough in terms of the team's off-season workout program.

Rogers' agent, Kennard McGuire, confirmed Wednesday that he has asked the Lions for a trade, given that they acknowledge shopping his client. But Detroit didn't grant McGuire's request to speak to other teams, and the Lions made it clear that they want to rebuild the relationship. Rogers, who had ankle surgery last year in training camp and broke his thumb in Week 2, has two years remaining on his rookie four-year deal.

"They're listening to offers from teams that have called," McGuire said. "Given that Shaun knows what they think of him now, we've asked for a trade. We weren't given much hope of being allowed to seek that, but we're going to keep our fingers on the pulse."

The draft, of course, is loaded with quality defensive tackles. The Lions likely won't take anything less than a first-rounder, but some team might decide that it's a better gamble to take a chance on landing the 2001 version of Rogers, rather than an unproven player in this year's draft.

The Saints in either case would be moving to land Trufant, unless Newman should somehow linger beyond the top five.

Arizona doesn't seem to have one player it has fallen in love with, and thus can be enticed to move down. That said, head coach Dave McGinnis isn't among those who think Suggs' second slow 40 time has damaged his draft status.

"I don't know where the perception came from that he was a 4.5 guy," McGinnis said Wednesday night. "Nobody was ever saying he was. He's a 4.8 guy, but he plays extremely fast from the line to the quarterback. We've got him evaluated as a football player, not just as a workout guy."

Suggs fills a need for the Cardinals. So does Trufant. So would a receiver, although neither of the big two are expected to be there at No. 6. So a trade into the middle of the round -- New Orleans holds No. 17 and 18 -- makes some sense.

New Orleans is more likely to trade up than to sit tight, and is willing to give up both of its first-rounders. The Saints are asking to get something back in the way of a 2004 pick in order to surrender both of this year's No. 1s, but they probably won't be able to extract that unless they get two teams bidding against one another.

New York in that scenario would move up to get Johnson, leaving Houston with the choice of either Newman or trading down. Others believe the Texans would be happy getting Utah offensive tackle Jordan Gross somewhere in the top 10.

But an executive from another NFC team is convinced that Minnesota has put out a smokescreen on Kennedy, with the real intention of selecting University of Georgia defensive tackle Johnathan Sullivan.

Whatever they're thinking, the Vikings like their position. They say sitting seventh in a draft that goes about 12 players deep leaves them with nothing but good choices. While owner Red McCombs wouldn't mind getting out of the No. 7 spot to avoid paying a top 10 signing bonus for the second year in a row, Minnesota officials insist that's not their primary concern.

Be it Kennedy or Sullivan, the Vikings are likely to take a defensive tackle if they sit tight, believing that they addressed the need for a No. 1 cornerback with Denard Walker in free agency.

That team would likely be No. 10 Baltimore, which is committed to selecting Leftwich if he's there when its turn comes up. Most league observers don't believe Carolina is prepared to take Leftwich, having signed Jake Delhomme during free agency.

So much for the new karma in Cincinnati.

Don Banks covers pro football for SI.com.

 

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