Rush to judgment

Even Williams wasn't enough to put Dolphins in playoffs

Of all the NFL stories that the media got wrong in its preseason projection mode of a year ago, none received as much saturation coverage as the notion that Miami's acquisition of running back Ricky Williams would put the Dolphins over the top.

Oh, there were plenty of other mistaken pronouncements that beg re-visiting as well. The Brad Johnson versus Rob Johnson quarterback "competition" comes to mind. As do the "Michael Strahan and Tiki Barber feud will destroy the Giants' chances" storyline, and the over-hyped "Randy Ratio" in Minnesota. Swings and misses, all.

In this vicious 24/7 news cycle that we're all caught in, the mindset seems to be pontificate first and ask questions later. Besides, there's always a fresh topic to sink our jawbones -- or keyboards -- into if we're wrong.

But with the benefit of a year's worth of hindsight, nothing compares to the lesson that Williams and the Dolphins imparted.

I wonder if there's a solitary soul out there in pundit-land who accurately predicted that Williams would explode for a career year in South Florida, eclipsing even Miami's wildest dreams from a production standpoint, but that the end result would be the Dolphins finishing two games worse off than they were without a No. 1 back in 2001, and out of the playoffs for the first time since 1996?

Call collect if you have to. I'd like to congratulate you for seeing what others missed.

Though Williams did everything asked of him and much, much more, what came through loud and clear in Miami last year is that in today's NFL, a strong running game and playing stout defense isn't enough to assure you a trip to the playoffs. You have to at least throw the ball decently, too.

Consider this: Minnesota and Miami ranked 1-2 in the league in rushing last year. Both missed the playoffs, which was the case with four of the league's top five and six of the top 12 rushing teams. By comparison, the league's No. 1-ranked passing team (Oakland) made the Super Bowl. So did the team that stopped the pass better than anyone (Tampa Bay).

Thanks to Williams, Miami outgained its opponents on the ground 2,502 yards to 1,554 -- the biggest advantage in the NFL. Williams led the league with 1,853 yards rushing, blew away Delvin Williams' 24-year club single-season record of 1,258 yards, and posted a 228-yard rushing game in the snow at Buffalo, tying Denver rookie Clinton Portis for the season's best individual effort (somehow, the Dolphins lost that game, by 17 points no less). Williams' 16 rushing touchdowns trailed only Priest Holmes' 21.

When New Orleans got rid of him last year, they said Williams wasn't a breakaway threat and cited the fact that he had just one run of 30 yards or longer in his three seasons as a Saint. But as a Dolphin, Williams had seven runs of 30 yards or longer -- tied for the league high with Tiki Barber -- and ripped off scoring runs of 63, 55, 53 and 45 yards. He also had a 52-yard reception.

Miami's defense meanwhile ranked first overall in the AFC and third in the league, held half of its 16 opponents to 17 points or less, and featured the league's top sacker (Jason Taylor 18.5) and tackle machine Zach Thomas. Six Dolphins went to the Pro Bowl, most of them on defense.

Had we all known those numbers beforehand, I'm guessing the vast majority of fans and media members alike would have assumed the Dolphins were indeed Super Bowl bound. After all, the cliché all these years has been that Miami was just a running game away from greatness. Thus, big things from Ricky equaled a ring.

But a funny thing happened on the way to those vaunted Roman numerals. Miami's 26th-ranked passing game was just too inconsistent for the Dolphins to overcome, even with their vastly improved running game and outstanding defense. Miami quarterbacks threw 21 interceptions -- only four teams tossed more -- and when the season was on the line, quarterback Jay Fiedler couldn't produce enough to stave off losses at Minnesota and New England. Before that, backup Ray Lucas was abysmal in relief of the injured Fiedler.

For tortured Miami fans, it really wasn't even a case of "Same Old Dolphins." Miami traditionally gives the faithful the pleasure of a first- or second-round playoff exit, after barely surviving its annual December doldrums. This was quite different.

For once, the Dolphins ran the ball. Praise be. But they still wound up going nowhere. Go figure.

Me, I've filed it all away for educational purposes. Williams was a huge headline last year and the deal that Miami made to land him was a good one. But as almost no one foresaw, that didn't necessarily translate into improvement for the Dolphins. The hype was right. The hype was wrong. We were right about Ricky, but wrong about the story and the degree of his impact.

Will it happen again this year? Probably. Although this year there may not have been a move made that could have Williams or Drew Bledsoe-like impact on a franchise, where a skill position player in the prime of his career changes teams.

If I had to nominate a candidate, I'd close my eyes, cross my fingers and submit Atlanta receiver Peerless Price, traded over from Buffalo. Price walks in the door solving the Falcons' No. 1 receiver problem, and he'll likely post huge numbers with Michael Vick looking for him in every key situation. Price was the right move for the Falcons, even if they did have to somewhat overpay to get him.

But that doesn't mean Atlanta will automatically improve upon its hope-inspiring 9-6-1 playoff season, which included that shocking first-round upset at Green Bay. As we learned last year with Miami, at times it's more complicated than that. At times, the givens can't be trusted.

Remember, the Falcons have never even posted consecutive winning seasons in their 37-year history. So let's all hold off a bit and let them do it before we start counting W's. Let's not forget that there's always more to the story than just two talented guys like Price and Vick playing pitch and catch.

Afterward, if Price makes all the difference in Atlanta, there will still be time enough for everyone to claim they were right all along.

Don Banks covers pro football for SI.com.

 

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