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Backup plans Vikings not overreacting to losses of Bennett, ChamberlainPosted: Monday July 14, 2003 7:17 PM
While no one in Minnesota is willing to make light of the double whammy of bad news that visited itself upon the Vikings offense late last week, it's also clear that there has been no overreaction to the gloomy developments involving running back Michael Bennett and tight end Byron Chamberlain. Bennett, whose breakout 2002 season included 1,296 yards rushing, third in the NFC, might be lost for the season after suffering a setback in his recovery from off-season foot surgery. Chamberlain, a year removed from his first Pro Bowl trip, is definitely out for the season's first four games after being suspended by the league for a failed drug test. Chamberlain tested positive for ephedra, the controversial over-the-counter stimulant that may have contributed to the heat stroke death of Vikings offensive tackle Korey Stringer in 2001. Neither headline was welcomed, but Minnesota officials at least have consoled themselves with these two realities: A capable replacement for Bennett is on hand, thanks to the fortuitous selection of University of Oregon standout Onterrio Smith in the fourth round of April's draft, and the job of making up for Chamberlain's absence isn't what it once was. Were this last year at this time, and the Vikings were faced with playing without their incumbent Pro Bowl tight end for the season's first month, that would be one thing. But in 2002, Chamberlain fell considerably short of all-star form, as battles with a knee problem and weight issues combined to limit him to 34 catches for 389 yards. Said one Vikings source: "It's not like he did a lot for us last year anyway. What we lost is his potential, what he could be again for us if he played like he did in 2001. But if we lost what he was last year, that wasn't much anyway. That's not that difficult to replace for a month." Potential is something that the lightning quick Bennett made good on last season, his second in the NFL. Drafted in the first round in 2001, as head coach Dennis Green's final No. 1 pick in Minnesota, Bennett came on even faster than expected and wound up pacing the Vikings to a surprising No. 1 overall ranking in team rushing. But should the worst happen, and Bennett require further surgery that would cost him the entire season, there are those within the organization who believe Smith has a chance to make up for most or even all of Bennett's production. Nobody's making any predictions, mind you, but there is cause for optimism. "He's just a very natural runner," said the Vikings source. "He doesn't have Bennett's breakaway speed, but few backs do. We know this much: He's the most physically talented running back on the roster. He just doesn't have Michael's speed. But if he can come in here and handle the load, he's got a pretty shot to be our No. 1 back this season." The Vikings clearly aren't counting on Bennett this season and will view anything they might get from him as a bonus. That said, head coach Mike Tice said Smith wasn't drafted with the idea that Bennett wasn't going to be ready in time to make a full recovery in 2003. Sorry, but Tice won't claim credit for the savant role. "We can't sit here and say we knew it all along," Tice said Monday. "We didn't think Michael would be ready for training camp or the [season opening] game at Green Bay, at least not at 100 percent. But we didn't take Onterrio because we had fears about Bennett's rehabilitation. We took him because we had him rated as the second highest back on our board, and he was available in the fourth round. And now it may work out." Veterans Doug Chapman and Moe Williams are also on hand to contribute in Bennett's absence, but it's the possibility of giving the ball to Smith 20-25 times a game that excites Minnesota. Considered one of the "character risks" in the 2003 draft, given his collegiate arrests for marijuana use and DUI, many talent scouts around the league still were surprised that he lasted until the second day of the proceedings. If Bennett sits out, and Smith comes on, it wouldn't be the first time that a player who had Day 2 stamped on him in April winds up playing the role of a No. 1 by the fall. "We are intrigued with Smith," Tice said. "In the short time we saw him in mini-camp, he showed us some things. We're not fortunate that Michael is still hurt, but we're fortunate that the injury happened at running back, because I think we've got some depth there. Yes, we do lose some explosion with Michael out. But I don't think we lose much overall." As for Chamberlain, no one in the Vikings organization finds his explanation that he unknowingly took supplements containing ephedra all that plausible. Given the league's emphasis on educating players about the dangers of ephedra, and the Vikings painful recent history with the substance, Minnesota is about the last place in the NFL you can plead ignorance. Team sources indicate that the Vikings have been bracing for a suspension for Chamberlain for a couple months now, since learning through a third party that a failed drug test would eventually come to light. Again, Minnesota officials aren't bemoaning their fate, and there's a couple reasons why. First off, the Vikings haven't been too pleased with Chamberlain's level of fitness or locker room presence for most of the past year. He is said to not be among the most popular of players among his teammates, and is a bit too willing to critique his fellow Vikings in the media. Secondly, the Vikings aren't too worried because they also have depth at tight end. In addition to veterans Jimmy Kleinsasser and Hunter Goodwin, who are both primarily blocking tight ends, Minnesota is very high on rookie Steve Farmer, an undrafted free agent out of Tennessee State. Tice, a former NFL tight end, intends to give Farmer every chance to prove his legitimacy in training camp. If Farmer does so, it wouldn't be shocking to see Chamberlain shown the door at some point this season.
We're only a day or so away from the mid-point of July, training camps start cranking to life on Friday, and still the going has been extremely slow on the draft pick signing front. What gives? Well, for one, not much when it comes to the rookie salary pool this year. The league's rookie pool is flat this year, meaning that there's precious little room for those modest, yet critical annual raises that agents attempt to build into the slotting system. A two-year flat pool was negotiated into the latest collective bargaining agreement extension, but that doesn't mean everybody has to like it. At the beginning of this week, only 20.6 percent of the league's 262 drafted players had signed a 2003 contract. The only first-rounder to agree was Cincinnati's No. 1 overall pick, Carson Palmer, who came to terms in the days leading up to the first round. In the top three rounds, just five players have a deal worked out. "I've never seen it this slow," said one team's veteran cap executive. "It just seems like the agents are all fighting the flat pool. The agents don't want to hear about the flat pool, but it was negotiated for a reason, and the intent was to give those extra dollars to veteran players who have already proven themselves. It was a mechanism put in place to control rookie salaries a little bit. "But of course agents are going to try and get as much as they can. It depends on how creative you want to be, but there's always different ways to construct contracts to make them look bigger than they are. You know it's part of the game, but it still seems so slow this year." Stay tuned. The money will be flying by next week. "There'll be a flurry," the team executive said. "It'll be crunch time. Everybody always waits until there's a sense of urgency. That's how this league works."
With the league's new realignment untested at this point last year, the consensus was the AFC South and NFC South would be the weakest entries in the eight-division format. But as is so often the case, the consensus was wrong. The AFC South had a pair of playoff teams in Tennessee (11-5) and Indianapolis (10-6), with the Titans advancing to the AFC title game against Oakland. The NFC South, which was supposed to be dominated by the Bucs, turned into a three-team race for most of the year, with Tampa Bay (12-4) and Atlanta (9-6-1) reaching the playoffs and New Orleans just missing (9-7). Even Carolina (7-9) made some noise. The Bucs, of course, wound up claiming the Lombardi Trophy. So who gets the early (and probably incorrect) nod for being the softest divisions this year? Put me down for the two Norths. In the NFC North, Green Bay won by six games last season and the other three teams all lost in double digits. The gap will narrow some this season, because I expect Minnesota to finish around .500, but not enough to produce a second playoff qualifier. In the AFC North, Cleveland and Baltimore should challenge Pittsburgh's supremacy, and Cincinnati will be much improved. But top to bottom, the division is the thinnest in the conference. A big reason? Quarterbacking. All four teams have had quarterback questions in the past two years, or in some cases are waiting for young arms to develop.
I'm a life-long baseball fan, but here's another reason why the NFL's brand of ball is superior for those with a rooting interest. In the big-market, small-market world of baseball, the American League East has finished in the exact same order for a record five consecutive years (and from all appearances, the streak will soon be six): The Yankees in first place, followed by Boston, Toronto, Baltimore and Tampa Bay. Before realignment reshuffled the deck in 2002, the last time an NFL division finished in the exact same order even in consecutive years was 1993-94, when the NFC West had San Francisco on top, followed by New Orleans, Atlanta and the Los Angeles Rams. With eight four-team divisions, it could happen easier now in the NFL. I would probably even wager a guess that history will repeat itself in as many as two divisions this year (maybe the NFC East and NFC North). But still, NFL fans have reason to hope almost every year that their team can change its stripes. The A.L. East? Easy. Try telling us what order the AFC East is going to finish. Last year, all four teams were separated by one win.
The facts seem to get overlooked outside of South Florida, but the Dolphins deserve some kind of recognition for their remarkable ability to always be good but never great. From 1977 to 2002, a span of 26 seasons, the Dolphins have had just one losing record, that being a 6-10 showing in 1988. That run includes 19 winning seasons and 16 playoff berths, but only 12 playoff wins. Miami has posted just seven post-season wins since last appearing in the Super Bowl in January 1985, which closed out Dan Marino's second season in defeat. In half of those 26 seasons, the Dolphins have finished with at least 10 wins, trailing only San Francisco (19), Dallas (14) and Denver (14) in terms of double-digit success. The difference being, the 49ers, Cowboys and Broncos combined for 11 Super Bowl titles in that span, while Miami got blanked in that department.
I don't see anyone matching Chicago's nine-game regression of last season -- from 13-3 in 2001 to 4-12 in 2002 -- but that's mostly because nobody won more than 12 games last year and it's statistically difficult to finish nine games worse from year to year in a 16-game season. Since the league went to the 16-game schedule in 1978, only three other teams have won at least nine fewer games than they did the year before, and in one of those instances the numbers were skewered by a strike season. The Bears' tumble was the largest since Atlanta turned in a 5-11 finish in 1999, after going 14-2 and making the Super Bowl in 1998. Chicago hopes the pattern ends there, however, since the Falcons, at 4-12, failed to rebound in 2000. Houston's Oilers of 1993-94 set the standard for this sort of thing, racking up 10 fewer wins from one season to the next. The '93 Oilers, winners of 11 in a row to finish the regular season, were 12-4. In 1994, Houston skidded all the way to 2-14. The 1982 49ers also won 10 fewer games, but their slump deserves an asterisk. In 1981, San Francisco went 13-3 and went on to win the Super Bowl. In 1982, a season shortened to nine games by a players strike, the 49ers were 3-6.
Don Banks covers pro football for SI.com. |
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